Karlsson and Spezza connection

[islefan31]

What happens to Karlsson's stats if Spezza goes down for any length of time? Both had very productive seasons but Spezza is always a risk for losing big chunks of time. Is there enough depth on that team if it happens?

[notoriousjim]

it is the same as any team with 2 star players, one gets hurt the other loses 10-20% of their points. So karlsson goes down to a 60 point D if spezza is hurt.

[cdubb]

Yes there is a big connection. As an Ottawa native and fan, Spezza and Karlsson stir the drink so to speak with Alfie getting older. When ottawas offense declined a few years ago it was because none of their dmen could get an outlet pass to streaking forwards. Meanwhile Spezza is the main playmaker (and scorer) once he has the puck.

None of the other players are creative offensively (maybe Turris but not consistent yet), and Michelak can score,but is injury prone.

If a couple prospects develop faster (Silver surfer, Zbad, and Stoner) then maybe they become less dependent on Spezza.

I think Karlsson would be a 50 pointer dman without Spezza, and vice versa Spezza a 70 pt C without Karlsson. Together it's another 15- 20 points each.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play.../scoring/2012/

Rough estimate but I counted 33-35 of karlssons points last year that Spezza either scored or got an assist, and vice versa.

[islefan31]

That's kinda what I was getting at. I need to submit my 4th keeper this weekend and despite the overwhelming nod for Karlsson over Seguin on the boards, my gut says go with Seguin. I have a better chance of redrafting Karlsson with pick #11 than I do with Seguin. I feel Seguin can still produce despite injuries to other players and may even excell with the added responsibility. Also toss in the fact that Spezza has only played 70+ games 3 times in his career is worrisome to me. There will be plenty of 50-55 point dmen available early in the draft.

[Big Ev]

To be honest I don't think he relies on anybody but himself. He runs the offence and controls the play. If Apezza were to get hurt, he's just elevate somebody else like Turris

Whether or not to keep him over Seguin, not sure. I'd keep Karlsson, Crosby, Ovechkin, and Seguin if it were men.

[Laendarian]

To be honest I don't think he relies on anybody but himself. He runs the offence and controls the play. If Apezza were to get hurt, he's just elevate somebody else like Turris

Whether or not to keep him over Seguin, not sure. I'd keep Karlsson, Crosby, Ovechkin, and Seguin if it were men.

This, although I'd keep Quick and drop Seguin.

[Pengwin7]

I have a better chance of redrafting Karlsson with pick #11 than I do with Seguin. There will be plenty of 50-55 point dmen available early in the draft.

1. I'd keep Karlsson over Seguin, easy decision IMO. The difference that Karlsson provides over any other D is incredible. Relative difference at positions is very important in fantasy hockey.

2. Your SIG says you must keep 1 DorG... so... why not cut Quick? In H2H, goalie stats can fluctuate wildly. Think about this...
What is your confidence level in Karlsson being a top 3 defensemen this coming year? (For me, it's VERY high)
What is your confidence level in Seguin being a top 3 RW this coming year? (For me, it's low)
What is your confidence level in Quick being a top 3 G this coming year? (Cup hangover???? For me, I would bet on Karlsson being a top 3 D before the other two options.)

Every team in your little (10-team league) is going to be keeping 1G (true?) and so how many of them are really going to draft a 2nd goalie really early?
If it was my team, I'd keep both Karlsson & Seguin and cut Quick.

My 2 cents.

[islefan31]

Great points all around, but I don't forsee a cup hangover with so much recovery time due to the lockout. Typically the hangover is caused by time off between the finals and training camp...typically. With that in mind my main priority is "c" blocking the GM who won the past 2 seasons from grabbing Quick. He lost Thomas as his keeper goalie and will no doubt want the best available goalie with his 1st pick. I traded me 1st round pick and don't draft until after him. Now if I can trade Quick for some draft picks, including a 1st rounder that could work. But I really like Quick and I feel LA will be a better team this year than last. Either way dropping either of those 3 will hurt, I hate limited keepers.

[fungchen3]

These two compliment each other well but Karlsson would be a beast regardless. Of course having a healthy Spezza helps matters but Karlsson will break 60 points in his sleep.

[agentzero]

I loved owning these two in this past season. They are magic together and are magnets for each other on the scoresheet. As said above, any player's production would be affected if a star player who shares so much IT (especially on the PP) went down, but these two guys got points without each other before (Spezza) and will afterwards. Talent generates scoring and these two can generate scoring on their own without depending so much on the other. Both are beasts, as fungchen liked to put it.

[cdubb]

To be honest I don't think he relies on anybody but himself. He runs the offence and controls the play. If Apezza were to get hurt, he's just elevate somebody else like Turris

Spezzas the only one who wins a majority of his faceoffs, including on pp. I'd like Turris to become a great 2nd line C but he hasn't proven it yet.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...ffPercentageAl

About a third of their points came on pp, 28 for EK and 24 for Spez. Next closest were Michalek 15 and Alfie/Gonchar 14 ppp. Power play will suck if one of the guys is out.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...scoringLeaders

Karlsson needs someone to get FOW and pass him the puck.

Spezza needs someone to give outlet passes, and set up from the point.

The replacement options are not great.

[Big Ev]

Spezzas the only one who wins a majority of his faceoffs, including on pp. I'd like Turris to become a great 2nd line C but he hasn't proven it yet.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...ffPercentageAl

About a third of their points came on pp, 28 for EK and 24 for Spez. Next closest were Michalek 15 and Alfie/Gonchar 14 ppp. Power play will suck if one of the guys is out.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.h...scoringLeaders

Karlsson needs someone to get FOW and pass him the puck.

Spezza needs someone to give outlet passes, and set up from the point.

The replacement options are not great.

I just don't think he'd suffer too much because he literally controls the play himself, and when he doesn't get the puck off a FOW or whatnot, he goes and steals it himself. The point about Turris was that he would elevate his play and make him and other players better in Spezza's absence. Turris was great in that one game Spezza missed, getting 4 points against NYI, so we're not sure how he would fare in a larger chunk of games without Spezza (knock on wood).

I was predicting a drop in points from Karlsson this year, though, and I do agree that his points would drop without Spezza, just not a 20 point difference.

But I don't really want to argue my point too much because I don't want to even think about Spezza going down with an injury

[fungchen3]

Karlsson is like Housley - if the forwards take a dip he will be relied on even more to produce offense. From a fantasy-perspective, only two things could stifle the kid's production:

1. Injury, and adapting his game to protect against them

2. A shift in coaching where he's tasked with improving his defensive play at all costs (aka the Caps scenario)

Other than that, he's like one of those windup toys where you pull the string and just watch it go.

[Pengwin7]

I'd peg Karlsson for 60-62pts in an upcoming full year.
Without Spezza, I'd say 52-55pts (so a 7-8pt downgrade).

[DerekReese]

Regardless of how much Spezza plays I would keep Karlsson over Seguin.