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Thread: Do I keep Getzlaf or Rask

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    Default Do I keep Getzlaf or Rask

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    So I need some opinions on who my final keeper should be. Here is my analysis:

    I'm projecting Getzlaf to score 74 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 120 forwards are picked.

    I'm projecting Rask to score 92 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 20 goalies are picked. That would make him the next best goalie after Lundy, Quick, and Rinne.

    I have estimated who will be left in the draft after everyone picks their keepers, and I am sure that Getzlaf would be the best player available. I pick 5th and would not get him back. He should go first overall. Other availables are Iggy, Heatley, Ryan, Couture, J.Staal, Yakupov, E.Kane...

    After some casual conversations with other GM's I know that the guys picking 1-4 will be keeping a goalie. So they would probably not be picking a goalie with their first selection. I also know that the availables should be Bryz, Smith/Fleury(GM is dropping one), Kipper, Brodeur, Price, Lehtonen...


    So here are my questions:

    1. Who would you keep if you were me?
    2. Is Rask a question mark? Or is he the next big thing?
    3. Am I a fool to think that he will fall back to me at #5.
    4. Which result is better? Keep Getzlaf and draft one of the goalies, or Keep Rask and draft one of the forwards?

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    Quote Originally Posted by theslymonkey View Post
    League and team details in my signature

    So I need some opinions on who my final keeper should be. Here is my analysis:

    I'm projecting Getzlaf to score 74 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 120 forwards are picked.

    I'm projecting Rask to score 92 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 20 goalies are picked. That would make him the next best goalie after Lundy, Quick, and Rinne.

    I have estimated who will be left in the draft after everyone picks their keepers, and I am sure that Getzlaf would be the best player available. I pick 5th and would not get him back. He should go first overall. Other availables are Iggy, Heatley, Ryan, Couture, J.Staal, Yakupov, E.Kane...

    After some casual conversations with other GM's I know that the guys picking 1-4 will be keeping a goalie. So they would probably not be picking a goalie with their first selection. I also know that the availables should be Bryz, Smith/Fleury(GM is dropping one), Kipper, Brodeur, Price, Lehtonen...


    So here are my questions:

    1. Who would you keep if you were me?
    2. Is Rask a question mark? Or is he the next big thing?
    3. Am I a fool to think that he will fall back to me at #5.
    4. Which result is better? Keep Getzlaf and draft one of the goalies, or Keep Rask and draft one of the forwards?
    You have 3 sick centers and 1 sick goalie. Keep Rask. He may endup being just as good or better than the other goalies available. Lord knows he's on a loaded team. Besides, if you let him go, there's no guarantee that you'll get another chance to have two sick goalies.
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    1. Getzlaf - With the situation you presented, it makes more sense to keep Getzlaf. He will be the best player available if you let him go. If you let Rask go, you say the first 4 owners in line are likely to not pick goalies, giving you the chance to draft Rask back to your squad or draft Price.

    2. I don't think Rask is much of a question mark, it's his time in Boston, and I very much doubt anything gets in his way this time around. He should be one of the best keeper goalies for years to come.

    3. I don't think it's foolish to think he could drop back to you at 5th overall. You say there are 4 guys ahead of you who kept goalies and are likely to want to add elsewhere, on top of that there is another great goalie option out there in Price, I like your chances at landing one of them; then I do getting Getzlaf back if he were to be your drop.

    4. The better result is keeping Getzlaf, in my opinion. With the scnario you presented it doesn't seem like there will be as good of forwards available, as there will be goalies. I still think very highly of Getzlaf even after last years big disappointment. With the 5 pick you have a good shot at getting Rask back, or getting Price who is every bit as good if not better, and failing to get them Fleury is a possible option, and if that to fails, Kipper makes for an excellent one year stop gap.

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    id keep rask.
    10 team Full Keeper Roto League
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    RW= reinhart,radulov,hoffman,laine,hayes
    D= doughty,ghostebehere,karlsson,jones,klefbom,dahlin ,skjei
    G= price,murray,grubauer,georgiev,ullmark,samsonov

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    I'd keep Rask here. I understand your logic in wanting to keep Getz but I think you are putting yourself at a much bigger risk not keeping a goalie at all since you start 2.
    Without me, it's only "aweso".

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    Definitely keep a goalie.

    And everything as it is right now, I'd keep Price before Rask.

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    1. Rask would be my keeper here. Because your scoring system only counts wins and SO for goalies there is no question that he is the better option over guys like Price, Bryzgalov and Smith.

    2. For me Rask is just about as solid as it can get. Who else does Boston have to turn to? Even if his peripheries are terrible he will get the starts and wins, because Boston is stacked.

    3. If I were one of the top 4 team and I saw that Rask was available I'd take him, even if I was already keeping a goalie. Because you start two goalies, having two #1 tenders could be absolutely huge. I would question anyone that takes a potential 74 point Getzlaf over a potential 92 point Rask. He could fall to you, but I'd be surprised.

    4. Given the choice between Getzlaf + Price/Fleury/Bryzgalov and Rask + Couture/Iginla/Ryan I'd go with Rask. To my mind, the available forwards have a better chance of equaling what Getzlaf will probably provide, whereas the available goalies will be hard pressed to equal what Rask will probably provide.
    16 team, full keeper
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    maf got 93 points under your scoring last year 42 W and 3 SO

    i wonder that you arent overestimating what raask can do

    down the line maybe but how many games do you expect him to be able to play his first season

    it took 64 starts for maf to get 42 wins

    how many of the other 9 teams do you expect to keep goalies
     
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    Quote Originally Posted by lucifer316 View Post
    maf got 93 points under your scoring last year 42 W and 3 SO

    i wonder that you arent overestimating what raask can do

    down the line maybe but how many games do you expect him to be able to play his first season

    it took 64 starts for maf to get 42 wins

    how many of the other 9 teams do you expect to keep goalies
    All the other teams are keeping either 1 or 2 goalies.

    When I said 92 points for Rask, that's prorated for 82 game schedule.

    14 Team, Keep14 Farm5, 82GP Cap/Position
    Skaters: Points only, Goalies 2ptWin/3ptSO
    Start: 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,2G
    C- Crosby, Zibanejad, Couturier, Zacha, Frost
    LW- Marchand, Huberdeau, McTavish, Rackell, Kuzmenko
    RW- Konecny, Necas, Caufield, Jarvis, Lafreniere
    D- Hughes, Carlson, Werenski, Chychrun, Andersson, Dobson, Weegar
    G- Andersen, Merzlikins, Daccord, Jones
    Farm- Johnston, Foerster, Tarasov, Hutson, Reinbacher
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    Quote Originally Posted by theslymonkey View Post
    All the other teams are keeping either 1 or 2 goalies.

    When I said 92 points for Rask, that's prorated for 82 game schedule.
    when you say 82 game schedule do you mean raask plays 82 games or do you mean 1 hockey season ie raask plays 55-65 games
     
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    Quote Originally Posted by lucifer316 View Post
    when you say 82 game schedule do you mean raask plays 82 games or do you mean 1 hockey season ie raask plays 55-65 games
    Yes. I would expect Khudobin to get 15-18 starts. That would leave about 65 starts, 38-40 wins, and 4-6 shut outs for Rask.

    Its not that he should put up huge numbers that worries me. It's how much better is he than Bryz, Price, Kipper, Fleury/Smith? And then how much better is Getzlaf compared to Iggy, Couture, Ryan?

    14 Team, Keep14 Farm5, 82GP Cap/Position
    Skaters: Points only, Goalies 2ptWin/3ptSO
    Start: 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,2G
    C- Crosby, Zibanejad, Couturier, Zacha, Frost
    LW- Marchand, Huberdeau, McTavish, Rackell, Kuzmenko
    RW- Konecny, Necas, Caufield, Jarvis, Lafreniere
    D- Hughes, Carlson, Werenski, Chychrun, Andersson, Dobson, Weegar
    G- Andersen, Merzlikins, Daccord, Jones
    Farm- Johnston, Foerster, Tarasov, Hutson, Reinbacher
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    Quote Originally Posted by theslymonkey View Post
    Yes. I would expect Khudobin to get 15-18 starts. That would leave about 65 starts, 38-40 wins, and 4-6 shut outs for Rask.

    Its not that he should put up huge numbers that worries me. It's how much better is he than Bryz, Price, Kipper, Fleury/Smith? And then how much better is Getzlaf compared to Iggy, Couture, Ryan?
    i dont see those numbers at all personally

    9 goalies started 65+ games last season

    and 4-6 shut outs is what thomas put up

    same team or not i just dont see sliding a rookie in and giving him the last guys numbers

    again personally i think you are way over on his numbers i could be wrong but that just looks way too high to me

    also its more than just how much better he is compared to others (and maf and smith both put up better than 92 last season) you were going the right direction when trying to figure out what those ahead of you were going to do

    you keep the one you cant get back and drop the one you can

    kipper had 82 under your setup and bryz had 84

    35 wins and 4 shutouts for 82 points thats a tall order for a rookie imo and you are predicting 10 more points

    i just dont know

    one goalie in the history of the nhl got 38 or more wins his rookie season bill durnan in 43-44

    only 31 goalies with 4+ shutouts in the history of the league in their rookie seasons only 2 post lockout

    again your expectations i think are high
     
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    Quote Originally Posted by lucifer316 View Post
    i dont see those numbers at all personally

    9 goalies started 65+ games last season

    and 4-6 shut outs is what thomas put up

    same team or not i just dont see sliding a rookie in and giving him the last guys numbers

    again personally i think you are way over on his numbers i could be wrong but that just looks way too high to me

    also its more than just how much better he is compared to others (and maf and smith both put up better than 92 last season) you were going the right direction when trying to figure out what those ahead of you were going to do

    you keep the one you cant get back and drop the one you can

    kipper had 82 under your setup and bryz had 84

    35 wins and 4 shutouts for 82 points thats a tall order for a rookie imo and you are predicting 10 more points

    i just dont know

    one goalie in the history of the nhl got 38 or more wins his rookie season bill durnan in 43-44

    only 31 goalies with 4+ shutouts in the history of the league in their rookie seasons only 2 post lockout

    again your expectations i think are high
    This was my initial thinking. And that's why I was sure that I would keep Getzlaf. I looked at the "experts" and this is their predictions:

    TSN(prorated): 37W+7SO=95
    ESPN: 31W+7SO=80
    Yahoo: 37W+5SO=89
    CBS: 39W+8SO=102

    So other than ESPN, they are all predicting a monster year for Rask. I have zero chance of redrafting Getzlaf at #5. I have a chance of redrafting Rask but could fall back on Price or Bryz.

    14 Team, Keep14 Farm5, 82GP Cap/Position
    Skaters: Points only, Goalies 2ptWin/3ptSO
    Start: 4C,4LW,4RW,6D,2G
    C- Crosby, Zibanejad, Couturier, Zacha, Frost
    LW- Marchand, Huberdeau, McTavish, Rackell, Kuzmenko
    RW- Konecny, Necas, Caufield, Jarvis, Lafreniere
    D- Hughes, Carlson, Werenski, Chychrun, Andersson, Dobson, Weegar
    G- Andersen, Merzlikins, Daccord, Jones
    Farm- Johnston, Foerster, Tarasov, Hutson, Reinbacher
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    Quote Originally Posted by theslymonkey View Post

    I'm projecting Getzlaf to score 74 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 120 forwards are picked.

    I'm projecting Rask to score 92 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 20 goalies are picked. That would make him the next best goalie after Lundy, Quick, and Rinne.

    In a 10-team league, keep Getzlaf.
    10-teams counting 12F = 120F.
    10-teams counting 2G = 20G.
    Exactly... you understand the theory properly.


    We all know Rask is a top 5 goalie, which puts him in the upper 25%.
    We also know Getzlaf should be a top 30 forward, which puts him in the upper 25%.
    And new goalies rise up into this upper echelon every year... Mike Smith! Jaroslav Halak! Jimmy Howard!
    Four years ago, these guys were back-ups that nobody would've though would emerge.

    But 20G in play also means that there are (10) #1 NHL goalies that aren't counting and will be available.
    With 120F, that's the top 4 players on all 30 NHL teams... which means that all PP1 scorers are taken.
    And top 30 scorers don't just pop-out of nowhere. These guys are all first round draft picks that we all see coming, they're hard to snag.


    In MOST other types of leagues, especially "category leagues", the goalies (and especially RASK) will carry more weight.

    Here points-are-points and you are looking at it correctly: "relative difference" from what you can get from the waiver wire.

    Getzlaf is the correct keeper.

    In a 10-team league, you will always be able to find a emerging goalie that is getting enough starts to supplement your totals. 12F/6D/2G. There's 20 players in play here and Rask is just one of 20 contributors... and his position is well-stocked in your pool.

    Also - Getzlaf is a free agent this summer and if he switches teams he will become a very attractive player: Calgary? Toronto? NY Rangers? Several teams out there could use a top center.

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    Quote Originally Posted by theslymonkey View Post
    This was my initial thinking. And that's why I was sure that I would keep Getzlaf. I looked at the "experts" and this is their predictions:

    TSN(prorated): 37W+7SO=95
    ESPN: 31W+7SO=80
    Yahoo: 37W+5SO=89
    CBS: 39W+8SO=102

    So other than ESPN, they are all predicting a monster year for Rask. I have zero chance of redrafting Getzlaf at #5. I have a chance of redrafting Rask but could fall back on Price or Bryz.
    yeah i am a lot more confident in your getzlaf projections than your rask ones

    i actually give getz a better chance to even exceed your predictions than i would give rask to match his
     
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