June 23/24 Fantasy Questions

[Maaaasquito]

Post them here!

[Loch]

How would Joe Morrow rank compared to this draft's d-men in points only pools?

(Oh yeah, thanks!)

[Zorro]

How will the top two lines in Edmonton look like next season??

How many wins does Lindback get next year in Tampa??

Whats for supper tonight GL??

[Colorjazz]

Out of all the D drafted in first round, who could make the jump?

Also, how does Ribeiro's arrival in Was impact Johansson? Bigger numbers?

Thanks!

[Maaaasquito]

How would Joe Morrow rank compared to this draft's d-men in points only pools?

I'm not a huge prospects guy, but I think in Pitts everyone will kind of have an elevated point total but only if they get a chance to play, but that's the key will they get a chance to play...

Morrow has shown a lot of skill from a junior level, but so has many others which floundered in the NHL...

This year's D draft class is deep and talented so I don't think Morrow will be the top of the pile.

Murray is essentially a lock to play in Columbus this year. Reinhart isn't majorly offensive, Reilly I've heard differing opinions on. Some say he could end up top of the class, while some say he has bust written all over him... so depends on who you believe, Lindholm was a surprise pick, and not a lot of people know a lot about him, so can't really call anything on that. Dumba's probably the closest one that I'd compare Morrow to at least statwise... Pouliot will compete with Morrow for ice-time down the track, so whoever wins out could have a better career. Morrow is more offensive while Pouliot is more two-way. Morrow will have the edge in points though... Trouba is more two-way again same with Koekkoek...

Keep in mind too that D points have a lot to do with the quality of forwards a team has as well. You look at LA, Doughty go can anywhere from a 50+ point D to a 35 point D playing on the same team... D points are almost near impossible to predict.

[Maaaasquito]

How will the top two lines in Edmonton look like next season??

How many wins does Lindback get next year in Tampa??

Whats for supper tonight GL??

I don't know how they will look like, but if I were in the head coaching position, I'd probably play the crap outta the kids and really take a big step forward this season...

Hall - RNH - Yakupov
Hemsky - Horcoff - Eberle

With that said, the Oilers do have a lot of cap space, so I'd probably throw the kitchen sink at Semin and see if he'll sign. They Oilers could have 3 potent scoring lines if they get Semin, Gagner and Smyth signed...

Lindback is a tough one... I think if it ends up 50/50 he'll probably get 18-20 wins... If he manages to outplay Garon for the number 1 gig and garner 60 starts, he'll get 26-30... TB has a lot of work to do on the blue-line to help out their goalies...

Dunno yet I still have 8 hours before supper... so lots of time to decide...

[woodrow]

Hey Ryan, thanks for doing this, it is much appreciated.

What are your thoughts on Columbus getting Bobrovsky? Does he become their de-facto number 1 or is Mason still going to get a shot?

What kind of year do you think Bobrovsky is in for? Wins will be tough to come by I would think, especially if Nash is traded. I had Miller, Vokoun, Bobrovsky and Elliott in a standard 12 team H2H 6x4 league. With Vokoun as a backup, I'm now thinking of keeping Bobrovsky as well. We do a 3C, 3L, 3R, 4D, 2G + 5 bench and we have 13 keepers. Is he worth keeping in your opinion?

[His Dudeness]

Thanks. League in my sig - I traded Leddy, Gragnani, Connauton and my 2013 entry pick (likely to be 22-24 overall) for other guy's 2012 entry pick (3rd overall) and his 2013 entry pick (his team will likely improve next year so it will likely be 8-12 overall).

In our system whoever gets taken at the pick is who you get, so I got Galchenyuk.

Leaving aside positional requirements (i.e. I'm confident I'll be able to replace my D), how'd I do?

[Maaaasquito]

Out of all the D drafted in first round, who could make the jump?

Also, how does Ribeiro's arrival in Was impact Johansson? Bigger numbers?

Thanks!

Once again I'm not a huge prospects guy, if you want a much more informed decision shoot Brendan Ross a PM or e-mail over at DobberProspects and he'll give you a much better answer than me.

If you want my 2 cents.

I can easily see Murray going. Seems like a match made in heaven. Jackets need D help and Murray is NHL ready.

The Wild have glaring holes on the blue-line, so Dumba I could see making the team if he's ready...

Those would probably be the only 2 that I see.

I have a projections article coming out fairly soon that will pretty much break everything down...

Generally speaking more competition negatively affects a player's point production. So Riberio coming to town should negatively affect the Johansson's point production.

With that said, for that last 4 years the Caps as a team has put up, 717, 836, 589 and 582 points as a team respectively... as you can see the last 2 years where they reverted to the "defensive" game plan, the numbers have plummeted... so if they hire an offensive minded coach and get back into the 700s everyone on the team is naturally going to see an increase in point totals...

Another big factor is whether Semin stays or goes... If Semin stays, he eats up 10% (roughly) of the Caps scoring pie leaving less for Johansson especially if Ribeiro comes in and takes up another 10% of the overall pie as well. If Semin leaves well that leaves more room for Ribeiro and Johansson to claim a few more points.

A third factor for me is ice-time distribution... Last year with Backstrom hurt, the ice-time was relatively evenly distributed... Ovechkin (19:48), Backstrom (19:09), Laich (18:29), Brouwer (17:10), Johansson (16:48), Semin (16:47)... So if you assume that Ribeiro will take over that 2nd line C role, he'll eat up more than Semin's 16:47, and that time has to come from somewhere right? so if you cut it out from Brouwer and Johansson, that leaves Johansson even less ice-time... There's only so much you can expect from a player that only garners 16 mins a game.

So for me if the Caps stay status quo and Semin leaves: Johansson = 45 points. Semin stays: Johansson = 35-40 points.

If Caps get back to offense and Semin leaves: Johansson = 60 points. Semin stays: Johansson = 50 points.

[Colorjazz]

Once again I'm not a huge prospects guy, if you want a much more informed decision shoot Brendan Ross a PM or e-mail over at DobberProspects and he'll give you a much better answer than me.

If you want my 2 cents.

I can easily see Murray going. Seems like a match made in heaven. Jackets need D help and Murray is NHL ready.

The Wild have glaring holes on the blue-line, so Dumba I could see making the team if he's ready...

Those would probably be the only 2 that I see.

I have a projections article coming out fairly soon that will pretty much break everything down...

Generally speaking more competition negatively affects a player's point production. So Riberio coming to town should negatively affect the Johansson's point production.

With that said, for that last 4 years the Caps as a team has put up, 717, 836, 589 and 582 points as a team respectively... as you can see the last 2 years where they reverted to the "defensive" game plan, the numbers have plummeted... so if they hire an offensive minded coach and get back into the 700s everyone on the team is naturally going to see an increase in point totals...

Another big factor is whether Semin stays or goes... If Semin stays, he eats up 10% (roughly) of the Caps scoring pie leaving less for Johansson especially if Ribeiro comes in and takes up another 10% of the overall pie as well. If Semin leaves well that leaves more room for Ribeiro and Johansson to claim a few more points.

A third factor for me is ice-time distribution... Last year with Backstrom hurt, the ice-time was relatively evenly distributed... Ovechkin (19:48), Backstrom (19:09), Laich (18:29), Brouwer (17:10), Johansson (16:48), Semin (16:47)... So if you assume that Ribeiro will take over that 2nd line C role, he'll eat up more than Semin's 16:47, and that time has to come from somewhere right? so if you cut it out from Brouwer and Johansson, that leaves Johansson even less ice-time... There's only so much you can expect from a player that only garners 16 mins a game.

So for me if the Caps stay status quo and Semin leaves: Johansson = 45 points. Semin stays: Johansson = 35-40 points.

If Caps get back to offense and Semin leaves: Johansson = 60 points. Semin stays: Johansson = 50 points.

Thanks! Rep to you! Great answer!

[Maaaasquito]

Hey Ryan, thanks for doing this, it is much appreciated.

What are your thoughts on Columbus getting Bobrovsky? Does he become their de-facto number 1 or is Mason still going to get a shot?

What kind of year do you think Bobrovsky is in for? Wins will be tough to come by I would think, especially if Nash is traded. I had Miller, Vokoun, Bobrovsky and Elliott in a standard 12 team H2H 6x4 league. With Vokoun as a backup, I'm now thinking of keeping Bobrovsky as well. We do a 3C, 3L, 3R, 4D, 2G + 5 bench and we have 13 keepers. Is he worth keeping in your opinion?

I dunno I don't think he gets de-facto number 1 status. I think the only goalies that go straight into a team into de-facto number 1 status are your true number ones, like Luongo, Miller, Quick, Kipper, Rinne... those types.

So Bob will definitely timeshare with Mason for the first bit to at least see who's going to outplay each other... The other name to really keep in mind is York as well. I actually think he'll end up as the number 1, but that's just me.

The frustrating thing with Mason is how inconsistent he is. He's not just a completely sucky goalie that lets everything in. There's an easy solution to fix that problem, you just don't re-sign him and let him walk. The troubling thing is that he has moments of brilliance that just keeps you wanting more and that he's on the cusp of turning it around.

If you break down his stats... he was 11-8-1 along with a 3.34 GAA and .908 SP post-ASB. If you look at those stats 55% win %age and 908 SP, those are decent respectable stats for a number 1 goalie... If the Jackets can get a bit more help on the defensive front they might be a lot better.

I don't think that the Jackets will be that horrible in wins this year. Once Arniel was fired, and Richards took over the team looked much more organized, so I don't think they'll be as non-competitive as they were at the start of last year.

The problem with your team is Vokoun getting moved to Pits as the backup, so you went from having 2 starters down to 1 starter and 3 backups... I think with the lack of number 1 goalies, you almost are forced to keep Bob and hope that he claims the number 1 gig outright.

[Maaaasquito]

Thanks. League in my sig - I traded Leddy, Gragnani, Connauton and my 2013 entry pick (likely to be 22-24 overall) for other guy's 2012 entry pick (3rd overall) and his 2013 entry pick (his team will likely improve next year so it will likely be 8-12 overall).

In our system whoever gets taken at the pick is who you get, so I got Galchenyuk.

Leaving aside positional requirements (i.e. I'm confident I'll be able to replace my D), how'd I do?

Great deal if Galchenyuk lives up to the hype. You moved off borderline pieces and got a potential star in return so I mean that in itself is a pretty good win. If you're confident you can replace the D then you've made out like a bandit.

[smack]

What's the deal with Patrick Kane? I watched a lot of their games last year while Toews was gone and he was great. Then some pics of him partying get posted and people think he has a drinking problem. What do you see for him next year? Are his problems just media-hyped or do you see a big year in store for him next year if Toews stays healthy?

[Maaaasquito]

What's the deal with Patrick Kane? I watched a lot of their games last year while Toews was gone and he was great. Then some pics of him partying get posted and people think he has a drinking problem. What do you see for him next year? Are his problems just media-hyped or do you see a big year in store for him next year if Toews stays healthy?

There was an exact same question on the forums last week about Kane so I'll just copy and paste what I said there here.

As much as you went out and said that he could be a 90+ point guy, I don't know if his environment will allow him to do so... If you kinda look at all of the recent 90 point producers (Malkin, Stamkos x3, Giroux, D. Sedin, St. Louis x2, Perry, H.Sedin x2, Crosby, Ovechkin, Backstrom and B. Richards) they all kinda have 1 thing in common which is that they don't really have a lot of competition within their teams. They all have 1 maybe 2 potential other point-per-gamers to compete with and all of them are vital parts of their team's offense. Another big factor is that besides Perry and Stamkos who are 50+ goal scorers, all of the other 90+ point producers average close to 60 assists per season. Kane isn't a great passer, he's probably closer to a 50 assist guy than a 60 assist guy, so that pulls him away from the 90 point department.

Another factor that doesn't work in his favour is that Kane is in a bit of a tough position cause he has 3 other potential point-per-gamers to compete with (Hossa, Toews and Sharp) for points and I don't know if I can confidently put my finger on Kane being a vital part of the Hawks offense... I just think that with 4 point-per-gamers they end up just taking points off each other and there isn't enough to go around for all of them to have high-end 90+ point production...

If you look at the Hawks offensive production as well, they've averaged 721, 726, 689 and 661 points during the last 4 seasons and is amongst the tops in the league in that department. So there isn't a lot of room for improvement. You could maybe make a case for a team that averages 550 points a season, cause there's a lot of room to grow to get to the top, but Chicago is at the top already so there isn't a lot more room to get even better...

If you break down the stats between Hossa, Toews, Kane and Sharp since 2009 here's what they look like.

2009: Kane (88), Toews (68), Sharp (66), Hossa (51) = 273
2010: Toews (76), Kanes (73), Sharp (71), Hossa (57) = 277
2011: Hossa (77), Sharp (69), Kane (66), Toews (57) = 269

So I mean if you notice the trend between all 4 of them it seems like their combined point totals are fairly consistent, but they're just distributed in different manners from year to year.

Unless one of those 4 get a season-ending injury early in the season, I don't know if Kane would ever get 90 points, cause it seems like they do a good job of sharing the points amongst themselves.

So I don't think his problem is the off-ice stuff, I think it more to do with competition for points on the Blackhawks' team.

I see this situation very similar to what Giroux faced in Philly before the clean out...

With Richards, Carter, Briere and Giroux there. Giroux's point production was always going to be limited, thus he was a 70(ish) point player. Now Richards and Carter is gone suddenly he rockets up to a 90+ point guy cause there's less competition for points.

2010-11 saw the Flyers point breakdown of Giroux (10.4%), Briere (9.3%), Carter (9.1%) and Richards (9.1%) = 37.9%
2011-12 saw the Flyers point breakdown of Giroux (13.1%), Hartnell (9.4%), Jagr (7.6%) and Briere (6.9%) = 37%

Without stiff competition for points, Giroux claimed a larger piece of the pie, thus the increase in points.

Until Sharp, Toews or Hossa is gone from Chicago, I'd expect Kane's points to be limited to 80 points and not much more.

Dunno if it helped at all, but hopefully it brings a different perspective to chew on.

[Kwazzie]

b. sutter + 2013 1st rd pick (probably 5th-10th range)

for

weiss

12 team h2h league full keeper positions matter.

fow g a pts ppp sog hits blks are the stats for skaters.

overpayment for weiss or no?

700ish pts for sutter last year, 940 for weiss.