Nathan MacKinnon

[Dobber]

MacKinnon is better than Jeff Skinner, and Skinner got 63 points as a rookie. He's better than Yakupov, Hopkins or Hall at that age. I'm comfortable giving MacKinnon a projection 72.

I know I have a reputation for bold, and I love that reputation. But here are the facts:

The highest rookie projection I gave last year was 58 points (pro-rated)
The highest rookie projection I gave in 2011 was 53 points

I'm learning when to be bold and when not to. Once in awhile, a rookie is going to get 70 points. That rookie will often be the first overall pick. The 2013 draft is the best draft in hockey history, by many accounts. And while MacKinnon is no Crosby or Lemieux, he is right there with Tavares (which is above Hall, RNH and Yak) - and on a team more capable of scoring goals than Tavares was at 18.


Edit - to make my sleeper chart make more sense, what I did was adjust his projection to 71 points, and his 'sleeper' number up to 75.

[Mr. Guru]

If Mac gets 70 points, Drouin will get 80!

[Dobber]

Drouin could for sure, but Mac has less competition in COL. He's more 'the man' whereas Drouin is 'that guy behind the man who is behind another man'

[Beareo]

Hi Dobber,

Thanks for doing this. I went through the Guide last night and I was very interested in your thought process for MacKinnon!

Great work all-around!

[berni67]

Hope your right Dobber. I picked MacKinnon before Drouin with my 1st overall pick a month ago

[Big Ev]

Drouin could for sure, but Mac has less competition in COL. He's more 'the man' whereas Drouin is 'that guy behind the man who is behind another man'

Really? It's the opposite to me. MacKinnon is going to be on the third line behind Duchene and Statsny whereas Drouin is behind no LW in Tampa.

[BlackGold]

So I'm curious now since I definitely agree with the reasoning that for a rookie to get 70pts he needs to be on a decent team and not behind "the man"

But why is MacKinnon not behind "the man behind the man" too? I mean Colorado isn't exactly a no mans land for forwards, you have Duchene, Landeskog, Stastny, and O'Reilly for top ice time. I like that depth better than the two behind Stamkos and St.Louis in Tamoa. Is it because three of those guys are tough minute guys so you think MacKinnon is given the cushy scoring ice?

[Dobber]

Really? It's the opposite to me. MacKinnon is going to be on the third line behind Duchene and Statsny whereas Drouin is behind no LW in Tampa.

That's how it'll start, but if he truly is an elite player, then he won't let that happen for long. And that's where I stick my neck out. I'm saying he's more Tavares than Hopkins in terms of talent. And if that's true, then he'll be the best player on the Avs by Christmas.

[Dobber]

So I'm curious now since I definitely agree with the reasoning that for a rookie to get 70pts he needs to be on a decent team and not behind "the man"

But why is MacKinnon not behind "the man behind the man" too? I mean Colorado isn't exactly a no mans land for forwards, you have Duchene, Landeskog, Stastny, and O'Reilly for top ice time. I like that depth better than the two behind Stamkos and St.Louis in Tamoa. Is it because three of those guys are tough minute guys so you think MacKinnon is given the cushy scoring ice?

Colorado has nobody in the realm of Stamkos or St. Louis. Not close.

[Pengwin7]

MacKinnon at 72pts is probably one of the few things I disagree with heavily in the guide.

With Sakic in a leadership position, I think they'll groom MacK to play center from day 1.
They'll best ease him into the position as C3.
The transition from CHL center to NHL center is a tough one and I very much expect him to have a Stamkos (46pts)/ Tavares (54pts) like production.

The ONLY way that MacKinnon gets 60+ pts is IF he is plays WING for the majority of the season.

Some of the better rookie scorers in past history have been wingers: Skinner, Pat Kane.
Even Versteeg & Bobby Ryan outscored Stamkos in their rookie seasons.

Now... if you believe that MacK is going to get a role playing wing for the majority of the season... OK, 60-70pts can be justified, because he'll get a chance to focus on offense.

But again, playing NHL center is a HUGE responsibility jump for rookies that takes away from what they can focus on offensively.
Tyler Seguin, if I recall, was put at C3 for his rookie season (which wasn't sensational).
He had a nice offensive jump when he got wing time on line 2 in his 2nd season.
On the flip side, Patrick Kane's WORST season was 2011-2012 when they shifted him from wing TO center.
Defensive responsibilities of a center takes away from offensive production, especially for young players.

I think Colorado is likely going to move Stastny (& even possibly O'Reilly if they get a decent offer).
I think they are going to build this team to be Duchene/MacKinnon as C1/C2 and mimic the glory days of Forsberg/Sakic.
And, FWIW, I think Sakic would see MacKinnon in his mold.

My prediction:
MacKinnon, 55pts (a smidge better than Stammer & Tavares rookie seasons).

[mounD]

I would be really happy with 55+ points. I own him in both of my leagues, including sig., and if he got anywhere close to 70 I would be ecstatic.

[Mr. Guru]

Drouin could for sure, but Mac has less competition in COL. He's more 'the man' whereas Drouin is 'that guy behind the man who is behind another man'

In terms of positions, Drouin is behind St. Louis......Purcell, Killorn....Malone?
Whereas Mac is behind Duchene, O'Reilly, Stastny.

In terms of a go-to player, I think this year they are both behind players, but Mac has the edge....I think that's where you are going with this and his hence your projection for him.

[lokguin]

MacKinnon at 72pts is probably one of the few things I disagree with heavily in the guide.

With Sakic in a leadership position, I think they'll groom MacK to play center from day 1.
They'll best ease him into the position as C3.
The transition from CHL center to NHL center is a tough one and I very much expect him to have a Stamkos (46pts)/ Tavares (54pts) like production.

The ONLY way that MacKinnon gets 60+ pts is IF he is plays WING for the majority of the season.

Some of the better rookie scorers in past history have been wingers: Skinner, Pat Kane.
Even Versteeg & Bobby Ryan outscored Stamkos in their rookie seasons.

Now... if you believe that MacK is going to get a role playing wing for the majority of the season... OK, 60-70pts can be justified, because he'll get a chance to focus on offense.

But again, playing NHL center is a HUGE responsibility jump for rookies that takes away from what they can focus on offensively.
Tyler Seguin, if I recall, was put at C3 for his rookie season (which wasn't sensational).
He had a nice offensive jump when he got wing time on line 2 in his 2nd season.
On the flip side, Patrick Kane's WORST season was 2011-2012 when they shifted him from wing TO center.
Defensive responsibilities of a center takes away from offensive production, especially for young players.

I think Colorado is likely going to move Stastny (& even possibly O'Reilly if they get a decent offer).
I think they are going to build this team to be Duchene/MacKinnon as C1/C2 and mimic the glory days of Forsberg/Sakic.
And, FWIW, I think Sakic would see MacKinnon in his mold.

My prediction:
MacKinnon, 55pts (a smidge better than Stammer & Tavares rookie seasons).

There are examples of rookie centres putting up points too, ex. Backstrom put up 69 points. The style the coach plays, his linemates, a lot of different factors are in play, beyond positional responsibility. I would even say that both stamkos/tavares coming into the nhl were less defensively developed than mackinnon is at this point. So he probably has less to learn in that respect. 70+ pts for a rookie centre is certainly bold, but not inconceivable.

[HockeyProphet]

If Mac gets 70 points, Drouin will get 80!

I don't know! Didn't TB really take there time with Stamkos. And watched his minutes and eased him into the league?

Do you think they do it differently with Drouin, or different situation for Drouin?

[jsuites]

I don't know! Didn't TB really take there time with Stamkos. And watched his minutes and eased him into the league?

That was Barry Melrose being an idiot. And despite averaging only 14:55 TOI and ZERO PP time in his first season, Stammer still posted 23+23=46. With a longer leash his numbers would have been a lot higher (second season average was 20:32 TOI, 4:36 PP, finished 51+44=95)