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Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs

  1. #1171
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Guru View Post
    What a great ****en game today!

    Scoring 4 goals playing great team defence but the best part is only Ranger played over 20 minutes (not counting Rielly and Gardiner's seconds). Great road game being able to rest players for tomorrow.
    Great team defense??
    Playing in their own zone most of the night and getting badly outshot again? Leaf puck luck will only get them so far and their goalies can't stand on their head EVERY night. Leafs are headed for a big market correction...

  2. #1172
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    welcome to leafland

    We talked about that, the Toronto Maple Leafs, they’re a team that doesn’t have the puck a whole lot, they’ve been outshot a lot this season. But if you give them the opportunity, they will score. They have guys that can put it in the net and they showed that tonight.

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    plus there were about 16 shots the oilers took that were actually encouraging and no threat at all. a common occurrence during leaf games

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    Quote Originally Posted by lobo1969 View Post
    Great team defense??
    Playing in their own zone most of the night and getting badly outshot again? Leaf puck luck will only get them so far and their goalies can't stand on their head EVERY night. Leafs are headed for a big market correction...
    I didn't see the game last night but just looking at the stat sheet I'm not seeing anything too troubling....maybe someone can explain it differently.

    Period 1: Leafs shot 12 Edmonton shot 14. The Leafs took a one goal lead and both teams are still playing for the next goal. Fairly even period on the stat sheet.

    Period 2: Leafs shot 9 Edmonton shot 8. The Leafs went up by two and start to go into 'protect the lead' strategy. Would anyone say at this point that the Leafs were getting outplayed by looking at a stat sheet? Leafs 21 shots Edmonton 22 shots and a score of 3-0.

    There is very strong evidence to suggest that when looking at SOG stats it's important to put it all in context because teams often get outshot when 'protecting a lead' (debateable strategy but there it is). This happens for a number of reasons: 1) the trailing team starts shooting from all over the ice out of desperation 2) the leading team attempts to eliminate high probability scoring chances and conceeds outside shots 3) the trailing team employs a high octane offense driven push that can lead to sustained pressure and 4) the defending team can get complacent. I'm sure there are more factors involved here but that's the gist of it.

    Many in the advanced stats community are coming to the realization that SOG differentials are only useful when taken in the context of what the game situation was during the time the shots occured. When a team is leading by two goals or more in the 3rd period it's highly LIKELY that they'll be outshot in that final frame.

    Now to highlight a team collapse that the Leafs were lucky to escape I'd look no further than the Pens game on Saturday:

    Period 1: Leafs shot 13 Pens shot 15 and the score was 1-1 (even start)

    Period 2: Leafs shot 4 Pens shot 16 and the score held at 1-1 (now THAT is getting outplayed and escaping by the skin of their teeth)

    Period 3: Leafs shot 13 Pens shot 7 and Leafs went up 4-1
    Last edited by 4horsemen; October 30, 2013 at 8:45 AM.

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    4 points for Kessel, MAN that guy has great chemistry with Bozak.....errrrrr......Kadri

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    I find it extremely irritating that Kessel and Seguin are unable to have a good game without people bringing up the trade.

    Anyway, while everyone (including myself) is swooning over that nasty shot that Kessel scored with on his second goal...but I'm personally more impressed by his vision and quick decision to make the pass to Rielly. While I'm not saying that he's more talented, I think that shows the difference between him and another goalscorer with a wicked shot in Ovechkin. I'm positive that Ovechkin would have ripped a shot from that bad angle rather than look for the pass.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lobo1969 View Post
    Great team defense??
    Playing in their own zone most of the night and getting badly outshot again? Leaf puck luck will only get them so far and their goalies can't stand on their head EVERY night. Leafs are headed for a big market correction...
    Posted this in the Oilers thread but it probably applies more here:

    Despite the boxscore last night, I never ONCE felt the Leafs were ever threatened in this game. The oilers had about 20 shots after the end of the 2nd period... the game was already done by the third after 4-0, and the Leafs let off the gas. Simple as that. Anyone who's saying the Leafs were "outplayed" last night obviously did NOT watch the game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    Posted this in the Oilers thread but it probably applies more here:

    Despite the boxscore last night, I never ONCE felt the Leafs were ever threatened in this game. The oilers had about 20 shots after the end of the 2nd period... the game was already done by the third after 4-0, and the Leafs let off the gas. Simple as that. Anyone who's saying the Leafs were "outplayed" last night obviously did NOT watch the game.
    Agree completely.

    Also I'd reckon that half of the Oilers shots were low percentage ones from the outside or from the point. One of the problems with advanced stats, is all shots are not created equal. 15 shots from the slot will almost certainly produce more goals than 30 from the outside any day of the week. However I have yet to see an "advanced stat" that takes into account shot quality and until I do I don't put much credence in all the naysayers talking about a big regression coming for the Leafs. If you watch the leafs play you will see that they are not trying to limit shots, they are trying to limit shots from dangerous areas and it seems to be working just fine based on their current place in the standings .

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    Quote Originally Posted by blayze View Post
    Posted this in the Oilers thread but it probably applies more here:

    Despite the boxscore last night, I never ONCE felt the Leafs were ever threatened in this game. The oilers had about 20 shots after the end of the 2nd period... the game was already done by the third after 4-0, and the Leafs let off the gas. Simple as that. Anyone who's saying the Leafs were "outplayed" last night obviously did NOT watch the game.

    I agree as well completly the Leafs completly dominated the entire game.
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    Were's the Kadri love? Both the passes on the Kessel goals were unreal!

    Yes, Kessel's finishes were sick )
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    Quote Originally Posted by eyemissgilmour View Post
    Buda, where's the Reimer love ?
    I don't know how the hell this guy doe's it? He looked horrid last night. Always out of position, rebound control puke and still comes out with a shutout. Maybe he has that Thomas factor? Must say besides the one game he has got the job done all year when he has started...

    I still move him this year when the time is right. Bernier is the man there long term. His style is way more sustainable. Hopfully he keeps it up and we get a kings ransome from Edmonton.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wendelclark17 View Post
    Agree completely.

    Also I'd reckon that half of the Oilers shots were low percentage ones from the outside or from the point. One of the problems with advanced stats, is all shots are not created equal. 15 shots from the slot will almost certainly produce more goals than 30 from the outside any day of the week. However I have yet to see an "advanced stat" that takes into account shot quality and until I do I don't put much credence in all the naysayers talking about a big regression coming for the Leafs. If you watch the leafs play you will see that they are not trying to limit shots, they are trying to limit shots from dangerous areas and it seems to be working just fine based on their current place in the standings .
    Completely agree but they still have to improve their defensive coverage. Their are still too many chances.

    Saying this, as another poster mentioned in another fthread, the Leafs, not only are creating quality chances(advanced stat?), they are burying them.

    And Bx3 I completely agree on the Kadri thing.

    Are we willing to annoint him the #1 Center now?

    Not to mention this goalie competition thing is going great.
    When will we see Bernier again.... smile.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigbabybuda View Post
    I don't know how the hell this guy doe's it? He looked horrid last night. Always out of position, rebound control puke and still comes out with a shutout. Maybe he has that Thomas factor? Must say besides the one game he has got the job done all year when he has started...

    I still move him this year when the time is right. Bernier is the man there long term. His style is way more sustainable. Hopfully he keeps it up and we get a kings ransome from Edmonton.
    I think you are on to something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigbabybuda View Post
    I agree as well completly the Leafs completly dominated the entire game.
    Leafs outshot 19-5 in the 3rd period, yep that sounds like complete domination for the entire game to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lobo1969 View Post
    Leafs outshot 19-5 in the 3rd period, yep that sounds like complete domination for the entire game to me.

    Sorry, they completly dominated the entire game until it was over. The game was over at the start of the third.

    It's funny because I agree with you, they have been outplayed on most nights this year, despite there record and are probably due for a market correction but last night was not one of those nights.
    Last edited by bigbabybuda; October 30, 2013 at 12:31 PM.
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