Toronto Maple Leafs

[doulos]

Let's be honest here Doulos... you are totally trolling Leaf fans haha... subtle as you may try to play it off as

I really am not. I have a reputation for it that works against me and I am working on it. In this case I am not.

I have read a couple different articles in the past couple days that are trying to figure out what's going on with the Maple Leafs. Is it shot quality? Is it chances vs actual shots? What is going on here?

I'm statistically minded by nature and so I find this team fascinating in this sense. Both games that I watched I thought the Leafs were outplayed and yet they walked away with Wins. Last game sonded like more of the same based on people who actually watched it (not me). Yet again - a 4-1 win for the Leafs.

When I 'watched' the Leafs (in a VERY small sample size), and when you look at the numbers aside from the actual score (which is all that matters for wins!) the Leafs should be struggling. But they are racking up wins. So why?

I'd love to be able to figure some of this stuff out is all. Maybe it's impossible and this is a case of a team that plays a really strange style that just 'works' and we'll never know why from a quantifiable sense.

[4horsemen]

It seems to me that you feel there is something to the idea of 'shot quality' (based on your last paragraph) and that this may be part of the explanation as to why the Leafs are able to capitalize despite lower shot totals etc.

Not in the sense that they're only looking for and/or taking quality chances (as people within the organization have claimed) but in the sense that they seem to have players who can make something happen out of nothing. It almost feels like a rope-a-dope at times as the opposition will hem them in the zone and pound on them until one of their slick skating d-men makes a hail mary pass tape to tape with a streaking forward. This sort of play can only succeed with fantastic goaltending and having fast, creative players who can snipe....but here's what I don't understand......why when a team wins because of great goaltending is it any less of a win? The goalie is just as much a part of the team as everyone else yet the 'advanced stats' community would claim it's completley unsustainable. Goalie coaches also claimed that Thomas and Hasek would never succeed in the NHL yet they did. What if Bernier throws up a 0.930 SV% this year and keeps the Leafs at the top of the standings? I can tell you one thing for sure, I'll enjoy the wins just as much or MORE knowing that everyone was predicting them to 'regress'.

[doulos]

If Bernier can keep it up all season then it's a completely legitimate strategy, but one that few teams can pull off.

You're right that it isn't any less of a real win than a team that keeps the opposing team to 19 shots every game and wins 2-1.

I'm not sure why it should be offensive for people to wonder how sustainable it is though. It's a fair question since there don't seem to be many (any?) teams who have been able to regularly pull it off.

[blayze]

Fair enough - your reputation around here is as good as anyone's but when you start dropping terms like "cinderella team" and making insinuations that wins aren't deserved, then you've gotta realize that you're sending a very clear message.

I watched last night's game. They were thoroughly outplayed in the first period and Reimer saved their asses. The second and third period were more even, but the difference is the Leafs buried all of their good opportunities and the Wild didn't.

That's generally been the case for the Leafs this season thus far. They are burying their opportunities. One thing I've really noticed about this team is their resiliency - something they've never had in the past decade. They are finding ways to hang in there and grind out wins in games where they're down 3-1, 2-1.

The goaltending helps for sure, but Bernier was less than stellar in the Oilers game and they still found a way to win, so it's not just goaltending.

They've been outshot almost every game, but most of the shots they're giving up are garbage outside shots. They're not giving up golden opportunities one after another like the Oilers, so the stat sheet can be deceiving.

A cool stat that was mentioned last night was they lead the league in giveaways - but they also lead in takeaways.

From the limited sample set I've seen I think this is just a fast, more aggressive, offensive squad that has the offensive skill level to bury their opportunities and has the confidence and resiliency to tough out those close games in order to come out with the wins. Their defense will continue to be sub-par for the rest of the year, but if the goaltending remains stable (doesn't need to be amazing), I have no doubt they will be a playoff team, and I bet they'll finish top 5 in the conference again.

If the doom and gloom scenario you guys are all painting was true - how this team will just fall apart the moment the hot goaltending or "lucky bounces" (which is a ridiculous argument by the way) stop then they'll unravel - then they would've been dismantled by the heavily favored Bruins in the playoffs last season, but as we all know that wasn't the case.

[4horsemen]

I'm not sure why it should be offensive for people to wonder how sustainable it is though. It's a fair question since there don't seem to be many (any?) teams who have been able to regularly pull it off.

Not offensive at all, not sure where you got that idea.....are we going 'strawman' here again?

[doulos]

Fair enough - your reputation around here is as good as anyone's but when you start dropping terms like "cinderella team" and making insinuations that wins aren't deserved, then you've gotta realize that you're sending a very clear message.

I agree. I was pretty frustrated by that game and came across as a jackass. Sorry about that.

[Mr. Guru]

Glad to see Rielly on PP2, and I miss Fraser out there.

[blayze]

Glad to see Rielly on PP2, and I miss Fraser out there.

I love what I'm seeing from Rielly so far. He's making mistakes but he has mad talent. Love his offensive flair and aggressiveness.

[blayze]

Phil the Thrill Kessel bitches!!! What a beauty...pure sniper's goal.

[Mr. Guru]

Top 3 player in the league shooting on the rush

[blayze]

Top 3 player in the league shooting on the rush

Ovie, Stammer, Kessel... not necessarily in that order.

[blayze]

On that note Kessel hatter baby!!!!

Paying off that $64M contract one goal at a time...

[Gern Blansten]

How did Bernier look? Sadly, I benched him with respect to Anaheim's streak, but looks like the Ducks tested him in the 3rd with 13 SOG.

[blayze]

How did Bernier look? Sadly, I benched him with respect to Anaheim's streak, but looks like the Ducks tested him in the 3rd with 13 SOG.

Bernier looked amazing. Kept them in there when they were down 2-0, made some timely stops. Bernier is the real deal... best move by Nonis during the off season by FAR.

Hmmm I wonder where all those naysayers of the Bernier deal went... *looks around*

[Mr. Guru]

Bernier was solid when it mattered.

If you aren't convinced Bernier is the real deal yet, you're behind the times.