Fantasy Mailbag - November 1

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks Justin, I am trying to figure out my Goaltending and am looking at the following offers:

My Niitty for his Fleury

and

My Ward & E Karlsson for his Halak and Edler

Thanks!!

Interesting trade proposal with Niitty for Fleury. Buying low on Fleury could be a pretty enticing thing, but I think Niitty has done a great job of adjusting to playing in the West and he is turning on the jets. I don't think Niemi has the same focus and flair as last year and shooters know his tendencies, so even though everyone freaked out when Niemi was signed, I think Niitty could still win 32 games this year.

Fleury has never been in this position before. I don't think Johnson keeps up the amazing play, but I think he keeps winning games enough to get him ~35 starts. Just speculating some more since it's still pretty early in the season, but I would PASS on Fleury for Niitty.

Very hard for me to analyze a potential trade when forwards are involved. But I would definitely take Halak over Ward. That's a steal in my opinion. Ward is awesome right now but I think the team in front of Halak is exciting and solid and the Blues complement Halak very well. So that's much more enticing than the first option.

[GoalieGuild]

How many years do you think Turco has in him? If he plays well do you think Chicago will extend his contract?

What do you think Neuvirth's upside is only this season? Both assuming Varly comes back, or assuming he stays injured?

If I have a goalie pad related question should I post here or PM you haha

Thanks bud.

Turco still has 3-4 years left in him. Yes, Chicago will re-sign him for a one or two-year deal if he plays well and consistently for the whole season. I really like how Turco has adjusted in the last three games and minimalized his movement. I think the defense is getting better around him, the communication is better, there is a lot of poise back there and now with Campbell back in the lineup, things should only get better for Turks. He's loving it in Chicago and the fans are starting to realize he's capable of being great if he just limits the turnovers and the movement.

Neuvy is a stud. He's playing better than even I expected, and I was one of his biggest fans heading into the season. As far as upside is concerned, I would say 34 wins, 2.25 GAA and .925 save percentage would be peak performance with 4 or 5 shutouts. But if Varly comes back and stays healthy and does well, maybe Neuvy only reaches 26-27 wins and has closer to 2.4 GAA with a .917 save percentage, numbers like that. Either way, what a start to the season and what a stud he'll be if he continues to mature.

PM me your goalie pad question!

[GoalieGuild]

How should the Flyers handle Bobrovsky upon Leighton's return?

Bobrovsky is getting the job done. They should waive Leighton and keep him paired with Boucher. It's a drastic change from what I thought of Leighton last year, but things change and back issues are sketchy with a goalie that didn't bring it up during contract talks. Just answering off the cuff since I don't have insight into the severity of Leighton's back issues, but I wouldn't want to mess with that if I'm the Flyers. Bobrovsky is a brilliant prospect that has proved his worth and deserves to keep playing if he keeps winning.

With this kind of spontaneous momentum, you don't want to send him down unless he is really struggling to stop the pucks and losing confidence. But if he stays consistent, continues to work hard, and stays relatively the same with his compete and skill, don't negatively reinforce what doesn't need to be fixed. It's tough pill for Leighton to swallow, but this is a business of winning. And Bobrovsky is winning and meshing well in a tandem with Boucher.

[GoalieGuild]

hey justin,

Bobrovsky or Niittymaki from here on..

W GA SV% SO

Tough one. Almost like splitting hairs, but I would roll with Niittymaki. Part of this is due to games played. I think Niitty will play more than Bob. The team in front of Niitty is a little stronger in my opinion as well. Niitty also has more experience and knows how to use his size a little better. So it's a very close call, but I would roll with Niitty.

[GoalieGuild]

Didn't realize you had one of these today, otherwise I wouldn't have needed to tweet you! I'll post it again here though I only have a few hours to decide

In a one-year league how much of a threat is Lindback to Rinne? I've got Brodeur right now and am contemplating dropping him for Rinne, Halak or Lundqvist.

Couple weeks ago I would have called myself crazy but Devils are not looking good and Parise is out. Wins are worth 2 and shutouts are worth 1.

Argggh I really hope I get this answer to you in time!!

Lindback is a pretty serious threat, but it's not like a single loss or a few losses is going to eliminate his fantasy value. I wouldn't drop Brodeur for Rinne .... but maybe for Halak or Lundqvist. But Lindback is not going to turn into a workhorse that plays 80% of the games down the stretch. Rinne is a beast, Lindback is a less-refined beast. They are a great tandem but Rinne is still the #1 in Nashville.

Halak in exchange for your Brodeur is enticing. And I really like how Lundqvist is playing right now, including the first half of tonight's game against the Hawks!

[GoalieGuild]

Back from my radio show. I will catch up and answer the rest tonight!

[bkbkbk]

Hey, first post.. hoping you can help !

I need to make a trade for offense in a roto league I'm in. Im stacked at G with Rinne, Quick, and Neuvirth. Stats are W, GAA, SV%, SO

2 questions:
1) Which one of these should I offer first as trade bait? Rinne is probably the most solidified #1 so he seems to be the obvious one to hang on to, but the other two guys have had ridiculously hot starts to the season..

1) If the trade I've got set-up now goes through, I'll be getting Niemi back. But all 3 of my own G's backups are available, and Bernier and Varlamov are likely to see time.. I'm thinking I'll drop Niemi and pick up the backup of the goalie I keep to have the handcuff option so I still get as many games in as I can. What do you think?

thanks!

[lektrix]

Bob has started 4 in a row over Boosh.

Leighton was JUST signed to a new contract.

Why not waive Boosh when Leighton comes back?

[GoalieGuild]

Do you see Columbus staying with S. Mason or will they hand it over to Garon at least for awhile?

Also in TB, is Ellis ready to take the #1 or is it going to continue to be the hot hand plays?

Thanks.

I see Columbus playing whichever goalie wins them games at this point. They were very weak defensively in front of Mason on Saturday here against the Avs, but once again Mason gave up an early goal in the first period and then two very quickly in the second period. He didn't have a chance on one of them.

I spoke to Garon after the game and the sense I got from talking to him is that he understands his role, he doesn't care how little or how much he plays, he just wants to help his team win. It's a great attitude to have because there is no pressure on him. It's a little more complacent than I wish he was, because he is so good, but that's just his style. Just happy to be in the NHL. I hope Garon plays well tomorrow against MTL so he gets another start. If he gets 3 in a row, he might get more, which would be a miracle. But I think Columbus plays Mason more because he's the "starter" and they paid him a salary that establishes him as a #1. That culture could change though - new coach and all.

Ellis is on the rise. Whether or not he plays strong enough over enough games to take over the #1 spot is up to the coaching staff. But I do think he's on the rise, legitimately, and will continue to play well this week. Tampa's offense should make things easier for him to establish his ability to be a #1 goalie and Ellis is a durable and energetic guy. So I won't be surprised if he continues to play well and get "starter" minutes over the next few weeks.

[GoalieGuild]

I'm having a tough time holding onto S.Mason in my keeper league.

What's your future look on him with his team?

I'll keep this simple for the sake of intensity.

Without Hitchcock's defensive system in place, Mason will never have the same fantasy value he had as a rookie.

He'll become a better and mentally tougher goalie, but the awesome stats from his rookie season were the pinnacle. Not sure we'll ever see those kind of results ever again.

[GoalieGuild]

Chet Pickard (i posted this in the forum, but didn't get an answer i f I could figure out how to move the thread to here I would have)

What's with this guy? He's a legitimate talent and he looked good in camp and the NHL preseason, but he just doesn't seem to perform in the AHL. Now he's been sent down to the ECHL, and Jeremy Smith brought up. It seems to me that this was the season that Pickard was supposed to be the workhorse in Milwaukee and it got all screwed up when Lindback came over and took the NHL backup job away from Dekanich. Now Dekanich is playing stellar down in AHL and Pickard not so much (4 games, 3.47GAA, .885 S%, 0 wins). Do you think his confidence is shot? Different sports writers were giving him a legitimate shot to be the back up in Nashville this year and now he's in the ECHL. Did they send him down so he could get more playing time, since Dekanich seems to be the man in Milwaukee? With a young goalie of Rinne's caliber and a guys like Lindback, Dekanich and Atte Engren in direct competition should fantasy owners be worried? Will Chet Pickard be the next Al Montoya?

Hey sorry if I missed this in the past - it happens from time to time LOL.

Confidence is pretty much the main reason for Pickard's issues. I don't have all the insight in the world, but look at the type of style that Rinne, Lindback and Dekanich play (somewhat). They are all reflex-based goalies that rely on quick feet and hands to control pucks and eliminate space. That is not Pickard's style. At all. So I think it could be an issue in regards to what he is being asked or taught to do and what kind of goalie he needs to be to succeed. I don't know, I can't add any insight to it.

But it is definitely something to be worried about. It shouldn't be happening. He was inconsistent last year and he is not performing up to expectations this year. Dekanich was slated to play games in the AHL, but sending Pickard down to the ECHL is not just to get him more playing time. There's something behind it.

It is a very serious subject and something I'll have to do some research on ... because yes, it's very strange this is happening. But you can clearly take from the demotion that he is not playing up to the potential the organization wants him to be at. Something is causing a rift to exist and Atte Engren is a lot like Rinne and Lindback, big and lanky and active and great potential. So Pickard needs to do something quick or start thinking about moving elsewhere.

[Puckhead]

Hey Justin,

I was wondering what you see the rest of the way for Neuvirth and Price? Can they keep their numbers (GAA, and SV%) up, or can we expect a drop off?

Thanks for this,

Puck

[GoalieGuild]

Hey, first post.. hoping you can help !

I need to make a trade for offense in a roto league I'm in. Im stacked at G with Rinne, Quick, and Neuvirth. Stats are W, GAA, SV%, SO

2 questions:
1) Which one of these should I offer first as trade bait? Rinne is probably the most solidified #1 so he seems to be the obvious one to hang on to, but the other two guys have had ridiculously hot starts to the season..

1) If the trade I've got set-up now goes through, I'll be getting Niemi back. But all 3 of my own G's backups are available, and Bernier and Varlamov are likely to see time.. I'm thinking I'll drop Niemi and pick up the backup of the goalie I keep to have the handcuff option so I still get as many games in as I can. What do you think?

thanks!

1. I think you might be more confident moving Neuvirth or Quick, but again it literally comes down to each unique offer you make. For example one manager might give up a legit top-3 forward for Rinne, but something less for Neuvirth while another manager wants neuvy bad and will give up something even better. I would just scope out a few different offers and target a point producer that will make you happy.

2. I would definitely want to handcuff both Kings goalies, so yes, I am liking your logic in that matter. Niemi isn't going to be very good this year. Bernier is much more polished and potent and could get a ton of games still. So go for it!!! Don't just drop Niemi though ... maybe try to trade him for someone else that has value offensively, then pick up Bernier.

[valec]

I'll keep this simple for the sake of intensity.

Without Hitchcock's defensive system in place, Mason will never have the same fantasy value he had as a rookie.

He'll become a better and mentally tougher goalie, but the awesome stats from his rookie season were the pinnacle. Not sure we'll ever see those kind of results ever again.

Thanx Justin.
In your opinion, would you look at shopping him in a keeper league.
There may be a couple teams looking for young goaltending, so I may be able to trade to get some better offense, then pickup Niity or someone else off the wire.

I have Neuvirth and Rask still.

[horrorfan]

I didn't see Pavelec in his first game back but it seemed like a tough loss considering they had a two goal lead in the third. But I still think he gets the bulk of the workload and has some very exciting and successful stretches and shows improvement in the technical and mental areas of his game. My topic for today's School of Block is an excellent way to take the lesson of the economy of movement and see if Pavelec starts to play a little more composed in the net.

I believe that the Thrashers want to give Pavelec every opportunity to be the #1 goalie and solidify his future in Atlanta. He's a brilliant talent with great skills and size. He has all the tools, he just has to put it all together. This next month could go a long way in determining that. I think he'll see a lot of games and gradually play better. Maybe in the same fashion as Dan Ellis, where he'll struggle for a handful of games, but he'll make one big save or win one big game and really turn on the jets.

I'll do my best to pick this out like I did with Niitty and Ellis last week and let everyone know when I think he's crossed that threshhold!!!!!! But I do see it happening, and I think Pavs is a gem. I own him in two leagues and put him on IR in October and now I'm excited to see what kind of return he brings my teams.

Thank you very much Justin. Plus, your School of Block piece was excellent.