Fantasy Mailbag - October 11

[GoalieGuild]

For the team in my sig, how the heck can I fit Bernier in my lineup? I feel that I NEED to handcuff Quick, but I just don't see how I can fit Bernier in...any suggestions?

If you want Bernier you are going to need to make a decision between Ward and Mason.

And I would definitely let go of Mason over Ward. Not a tough choice, really. It's going to be tough, but Bernier is going to win a bunch of games this year. And he's wayyyyyy more mentally sound compared to Mason.

[Big Ev]

Well I won't just drop Mason, I assume you mean some sort of trade. But I prefer Mason over Bernier so I think I'll stand pat for now. Thanks for the advice, though!

[horrorfan]

A lot of people on here (including comments above) are high on Bobrovsky. What about Boucher? Do you see both of them sharing starts, or do you feel that one has the edge going forward in a one-year league? I have Boucher as my #3 (Pavelec soon to be IR as my #4) and wondering if I should hold onto him. Bryzgalov and Ward are my top 2. H2H Categories are W,GAA,SV,SV%.

Bobrovsky is a FA, so are Smith, Osgood and Crawford.

Thanks Justin.

[4T2]

What is your take on Hiller? I don't get to see any Ducks games? Is he playing well and is it just the Ducks D? Or does he actually look off his game this year?

[GoalieGuild]

A lot of people on here (including comments above) are high on Bobrovsky. What about Boucher? Do you see both of them sharing starts, or do you feel that one has the edge going forward in a one-year league? I have Boucher as my #3 (Pavelec soon to be IR as my #4) and wondering if I should hold onto him. Bryzgalov and Ward are my top 2. H2H Categories are W,GAA,SV,SV%.

Bobrovsky is a FA, so are Smith, Osgood and Crawford.

Thanks Justin.

I watched Bobrovsky very closely again tonight since they played the Avs. As I have said since his first game, he continues to dominate down low. The Avs had very few quality scoring chances on him. The first true scoring chance that resulted in a shot above the waist was a goal, by a great turn-around shot by Brandon Yip.

The only other puck that beat him was a wrist shot through traffic by Milan Hejduk that squeaked through his right arm and leg. It was stoppable, but not weak. Otherwise, almost all 27 shots he faced were down low and well-controlled and easily stopped. He probably had to make 8-10 quality saves on decent scoring chances.

I think with wins in his first two games and the fact that almost every team he faces doesn't understand or preach that they need to shoot high on him to be successful, he will continue to post quality stats and win hockey games. Boucher will have to play extremely well in order to keep up. I think Bobrovsky and Boucher are both quality fantasy goalies to own but Bobrovsky might be more appealing because of just how skilled he is and how much momentum he's gaining. The coaching staff is obviously willing to give him plenty of opportunities and Leighton is on Holmgren's shit list.

If I had to choose, I would take Bobrovsky.

[GoalieGuild]

What is your take on Hiller? I don't get to see any Ducks games? Is he playing well and is it just the Ducks D? Or does he actually look off his game this year?

Hiller is playing as well as he can under the circumstances. I feel that his style is not optimally suited to face 40 shots a game. He's an amazing talent with tons of upside and potential, but he doesn't have the experience yet to handle this kind of workload and this kind of brutal defense in front of him. He will literally have to pull a Craig Anderson in order to give the Ducks any kind of chance to make it to the playoffs.

He doesn't look off his game at all. If you read the October Scouting Journal, I mentioned how he is prone to going down a little early and that he exposes the top corners at times. I've noticed a lot of goals already being scored up high on him. I think he gets tired once he reaches the 30-35 shot mark because the Ducks are giving up a lot of quality scoring chances and because they are taking TONS of penalties, so these are GRUELING games for Hiller. It's just not something he's used to or comfortable with yet in his career.

I see it a lot like JDD's season last year. Easily frustrated. Overwhelmed by the shots he's facing. No help whatsoever. It doesn't make him a quality fantasy goalie to own, but he's still a workhorse that you'll want to own in a keeper league. But if things continue the way they are going with Anaheim's inability to score and their goonery once frustrated, he won't be very valuable in a one-year league this year.

[zedtech]

Hey Justin, not sure if you saw this or not Would love your thoughts on the following:

1. What are your thoughts on Rask/Thomas? (Starting split, who gets more starts).

2. Chris Mason, officially the bonafide #1 all season now?

3. Kings' situation - is it a 70/30 split for Quick barring injuries?

Thanks!

[Chicleteur]

Hi Justin,

I don't know if it's too late or not, but I would like to know your thoughts on these young G prospects. Who has more upside and what do you see for them in the next 2-3 years or so.

Timo Pielmeier
Igor Bobkov
Mike McKenna
Jeff Frazee
Nicola Riopel
Brad Thiessen
Riku Helenius

As you can see, these are guys from teams where the future G situation is not clear (ANH and NJ) or from teams with where there's a few other G (PHI, PIT and TB)

Thanks in advance!

[GoalieGuild]

1. What are your thoughts on Rask/Thomas? (Starting split, who gets more starts).

2. Chris Mason, officially the bonafide #1 all season now?

3. Kings' situation - is it a 70/30 split for Quick barring injuries?

Thanks!

Not sure how I missed this one!

1. I am thinking they will alternate to start, but it could be a "day-to-day" situation or "win and your in" situation. Teams need to win hockey games. Regardless of Rask being more talented and a better goalie, if Thomas stops pucks, he's going to play.

2. No. I think he will do okay until Pavelec is well enough to play again. Both will get plenty of chances. The Thrashers want to see Pavelec develop and evolve into a starting goalie. I still think Pavelec is flying WAY under the radar in the fantasy realm and could have a potential breakout season. Let's hope he gets back on the ice soon. But Mason is definitely not the #1 for the whole situation.

3. I would say it's going to be closer to 60/40 for Quick, but Bernier could just as easily switch that to 60/40 in his favor. Literally just depends on each and every game! Of course injuries could play a role in that but they are both healthy right now, so expect it to be similar to Boston, where the hot goalie gets ridden until something else happens.

[zedtech]

Great! Thanks for the insight as always

I have Rask, Bernier, Mason, Gustavsson and Osgood in one of my keepers (3 starting spots) so I'm hoping for the best as the season progresses. I had Pavelec to start the season but dropped him for Osgood for the time being.

[GoalieGuild]

Hi Justin,

I don't know if it's too late or not, but I would like to know your thoughts on these young G prospects. Who has more upside and what do you see for them in the next 2-3 years or so.

Timo Pielmeier, Igor Bobkov, Mike McKenna, Jeff Frazee, Nicola Riopel, Brad Thiessen, Riku Helenius

As you can see, these are guys from teams where the future G situation is not clear (ANH and NJ) or from teams with where there's a few other G (PHI, PIT and TB)

Thanks in advance!

Pielmeier I think is flying under the radar and is definitely going to get his chance next season, or the season after that. He's really positionally sound for his size and kind of reminds me of Neuvirth in the sense that he's unassuming but very solid.

Bobkov is going to be a great goalie in a few more years. Great that he was able to get over to London to play in the OHL this year, that will prime him for a solid junior and minor league career. Just signed an entry-level-deal with the Ducks yesterday, so he's moving up in the Long-Term prospects rankings. Like his size and mobility, just needs to refine his game in North America.

McKenna is a brilliant prospect but his age lends a hand to him being overlooked by a lot of fantasy managers and teams. I really wish the Devils would have brought him up instead of Hedberg, who is pretty much going to be worthless on the team this year. McKenna is a huge body with awesome lateral movement and is very durable. Catches right and has extremely quick hands and feet.

Frazee is four years younger than McKenna I believe, so he's considered the long-term keeper in the Devils system. But I don't think he has much NHL upside. He's a battler, a guy that works hard to stop the puck but isn't very refined. I've never been a big fan of Frazee from a technique standpoint so he'll have to take advantage of opportunities and blow McKenna away in order to become the #3 in the Devils system.

Riopel should have a good season in the AHL and thanks to injury issues with Leighton, he'll get some quality minutes in Adirondack. Major hit that Bobrovsky gets into the NHL before ever playing a game in North America, but I think Leighton has already played his last game in a Flyers uniform. He could come back and do well in the second half of the season, but next year I think Riopel is a full-time AHL starter and continues to develop from there.

Thiessen has quickly become a prospect to watch. Smaller, quick goalie with a great ability to read plays and eliminate space. He's making Curry expendable very quickly. I think these next two months are huge as far as establishing himself as a starter in Wilkes-Barre and becoming the #3 goalie in Pittsburgh. Still won't find his way into the NHL for another year or two, but he's already gone from low-70's to low-50's and Curry is in the 60's in my Top-100.

[Chicleteur]

Pielmeier I think is flying under the radar and is definitely going to get his chance next season, or the season after that. He's really positionally sound for his size and kind of reminds me of Neuvirth in the sense that he's unassuming but very solid.

Bobkov is going to be a great goalie in a few more years. Great that he was able to get over to London to play in the OHL this year, that will prime him for a solid junior and minor league career. Just signed an entry-level-deal with the Ducks yesterday, so he's moving up in the Long-Term prospects rankings. Like his size and mobility, just needs to refine his game in North America.

McKenna is a brilliant prospect but his age lends a hand to him being overlooked by a lot of fantasy managers and teams. I really wish the Devils would have brought him up instead of Hedberg, who is pretty much going to be worthless on the team this year. McKenna is a huge body with awesome lateral movement and is very durable. Catches right and has extremely quick hands and feet.

Frazee is four years younger than McKenna I believe, so he's considered the long-term keeper in the Devils system. But I don't think he has much NHL upside. He's a battler, a guy that works hard to stop the puck but isn't very refined. I've never been a big fan of Frazee from a technique standpoint so he'll have to take advantage of opportunities and blow McKenna away in order to become the #3 in the Devils system.

Riopel should have a good season in the AHL and thanks to injury issues with Leighton, he'll get some quality minutes in Adirondack. Major hit that Bobrovsky gets into the NHL before ever playing a game in North America, but I think Leighton has already played his last game in a Flyers uniform. He could come back and do well in the second half of the season, but next year I think Riopel is a full-time AHL starter and continues to develop from there.

Thiessen has quickly become a prospect to watch. Smaller, quick goalie with a great ability to read plays and eliminate space. He's making Curry expendable very quickly. I think these next two months are huge as far as establishing himself as a starter in Wilkes-Barre and becoming the #3 goalie in Pittsburgh. Still won't find his way into the NHL for another year or two, but he's already gone from low-70's to low-50's and Curry is in the 60's in my Top-100.

Thanks a lot Justin! Awesome breakdown as always. However, can you rank them for me? I probably want a mix of both opportunity and upside.

Based on what you said, I guess it would be Pielmeier, Thiessen, McKenna, Riopel, Frazee and Bobkov.

[TundraArc]

Goalie Guild

I took over a team in a 18 team H2H Dynasty League. The goalie situation was an absolute mess with the likes of Labarbera, Biron and Backlund as my goaltenders. Through trade, and it probably wasn't the best of trades, I managed to get Leighton and JDD. I also dropped Labarbera and Biron in favor of Lindback and Karlsson. With Leighton on IR I also grabbed McElhinney but I'm not expecting anything there.

I've read your entries regarding JDD, Lindback and Karlsson and while they do sound postive and give some hope I have to wonder what does it mean for my team? I have Stamkos, but I really would like to avoid dealing him to land a netminder as he's a central piece on my team. Conklin was recently dropped and I can try for him or burn my 4th waiver priority, though I think it could be reserved for something better. Any insight or offerings would be greatly appreciated.

[Sprya]

Hi, Justin. You are goalie genius, I think

1. Will the Penguins be happy with Fleury as their No.1 goalie in 3-4 years, if he will play like he did last year (mediocre)? How strong pressure will he have from Curry/Thiessen?

2. Will C.Crawford be the No.1 goalie in Chicago next year? Why?

3. Rank Rask, Bernier, Neuwirth, Varlamov, Fleury, Crawford in 3 years.

4. Your thougths about goalie controversy in Was after early Varlamov's injury and Neuwirth hot start? 60/40 for Neuwirth?

Thanks a lot for doing this!