Fantasy Mailbag - Sept. 27

[Big Ev]

Thanks for replying to my question; I would just like to add to it if you don't mind . I would like to add Bernier, but there are other goalies available including Niittymaki, Neuvirth, Thomas, and C. Mason. My question is, would adding Bernier as insurance for Quick still be a better option than simply adding one of those other guys?

[Chicleteur]

I don't think any goalie should be played all the time. Pay attention to the ebb and flow of Luongo's season. You will know when he is fighting the puck or amidst a losing streak and when he's at the top of his game. Don't just play him because he's Luongo. Same goes for any goalie, remember they are all victims of being in a good or bad rhythm.

If there's one guy you would be able to get away with playing all the time, it's Bryzgalov, because he's in a defensive minded system and he's more familiar playing in phoenix than he was last season.

So to answer your question, rely on Luongo and Bryzgalov, but always take the time to dissect the matchup and what kind of game the goalies are currently playing. You wouldn't want to start Luongo in Colorado on the tail-end of a long road trip after he suffered a loss in his previous game. Things like that are always going to give you an edge over the course of a season! A sharp decision here, a sharp decision there, it all adds up!

Thanks Justin!

Oh sure, I normally pay attention to these long road trip thing, but I was just wondering if I needed to act differently now that I own both VCR goalies. In the end, I still need to make my 166 games for my goalies.

How many games do you see for Bernier? 20-25? 30-35? I think it'll be harder to play the matchups accurately with that number of games.

[GoalieGuild]

Who would you pick between Lehner and Campbell? Wins and shutouts are the only scoring criteria. Thanks!

Lenher if you are looking for a shorter term fix. Campbell if you can be patient and want a guy with a bit more upside.

Right now, it's splitting hairs. Obviously these two guys are very different as far as size, style and positioning in the depth chart is concerned.

Trying to decipher wins and shutouts in a keeper league long term is not easy. Just go with your gut and look at what goalie would benefit your team more. I can't say for sure since I don't have any details but Lehner is going to produce results in as little as one year, probably more like two. Campbell is going to take at least three years to have an impact...but I still like Campbell better long-term.

A lot like a Ryan Miller vs. Henrik Lundqvist.

[GoalieGuild]

Any words on Khabibulin.When will he serve his time to the society.Is he worth drafting this year.

thanks

Buckeroooooooooooos

I watched Khabibulin in his pre-season game last night and he looked solid. Did not have a lot of rust to shake off. He is, if anything, well rested and full of energy. He is probably motivated to play at his best and extend his NHL career for another few seasons. I think as long as he's not brutally overworked early, the dehydration issues will be staved off and he might have a decent couple of months. I don't expect him to stay healthy for an entire season, but anything can happen and he certainly has the ability to play 40-50 games. Of course there are issues with his health and his back, but until we hear of anything, I would consider him "healthy" and a guy that is a bit of a sleeper in drafts right now.

No idea when he will serve his jail time.

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks as always. In my league you can keep 1 goalie, or two if one of them is a prospect (3 years or less in NHL, I only kept Varlamov). Lundy, Bryzgalov, and Brodeur are all available, so I'm definitely grabbing one of them, and hopefully Neuvirth later.

I'm hoping for Lundqvist, but do you like him or Bryzgalov more in a keeper?

If I get Neuvirth, depending on how this year shakes out I also might consider keeping both of them and later tradethe stud I draft, do you think that would be a poor decision?

I'm never a fan of trading a stud just to get the inside track on a prospect because of the volatile market in a prospect-mad world. They are all over the place and very few elite prospects become a fantasy stud. I would hang tight with a guy like Lundqvist or Bryzgalov and then try to land Neuvirth later as I think he could defy the odds and be one of those prospects that turns into a long-term stud.

I think the decision between Lundqvist and Bryzgalov is a tough one and will depend on your goalie categories and where you need help the most. Lundqvist constantly faces a high volume of shots. So if shots is a category, I would definitely roll with Lundqvist. If you need wins and your league doesn't count shots, I would take Bryzgalov instead because he is in a defensive system and will have a lot of games where he doesn't face a ton of shots but will still get the win.

You'll see a higher save percentage on a more consistent basis with Lundqvist and he can go on some tears that will pot you some shutouts and a bunch of one-goal against games. Bryzgalov is capable of going on the same kind of tears but that save percentage may not be as high.

So take a look at your scoring categories and figure out which goalie is a better fit. Both are excellent fantasy studs. Bryzgalov is in a contract season so that will play a bit of a role in your decision since it's a keeper league.

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin, thanks for the help!!

I have Niemi, Niittymaki & Stalock and have been offered Kipper & a prospect to be named later for them. We are a weekly head 2 head full keeper with the following stats: W, SV%, SO, GAA, Saves. We start 2 weekly and my other goalies are Jeff Deslauriers, Roloson & Leclaire...not the best I know.

I noticed you took Kipper pretty high in your draft and wanted to know if you thought I should do this deal. Kipper scares me but not nearly as much as the Flames potential to be bad, whereas, if Niemi grabs the job in SJ, he could be there for awhile.

I'll stop typing now before I confuse myself even more

So you have the top three sharks goalies (besides Greiss of course) and you also have JDD, Roloson and Leclaire. Then someone offered you Kiprusoff and a prospect to be named later for the three sharks goalies.

Stick to your guns. Having the three sharks goalies is a good setup, for the reason you said, if Niemi does well he will stick around. You are guaranteed a lot of wins by having the Niemi/Niitty tandem and it's a good way to roll considering you have some sleepers in JDD and Roloson and Leclaire.

This is a big year for Leclaire. He could have a great season since he's reunited with his former goalie coach. That's a sleeper goalie under your sleeve. Roloson is always a steady, reliable goalie and every year he finds a way to break the mold of a 40+ year old goalie and post good stats in stretches. Could get a heavy workload if peg leg DiPietro goes down again.

But I wouldn't give up the Sharks trifecta just to snag Kiprusoff. I drafted him high because it's a one-year league and I think he's super steady. I know the NW division very well since I cover the Avalanche so I will be able to spot-start him and milk him for the good nights and weed out some of the bad stretches! Hope that helps!

[GoalieGuild]

Hi Justin, thanks for doing this.

1 year H2H league, 12 teams
Goalie categories - W,GAA,SV,SV%
Number of starting goalie slots = 2
Minimum games per week=3

I have Vokoun, Ward and Pavelec. I have a couple of concerns:

1) Lack of wins - I don't have an elite #1 (well Vokoun is close to upper tier), and their teams are average at best IMO. Unless you think otherwise.
2) All in the same division - might hurt me some weeks. Not sure if this makes a difference or not.

So, my question is whether I should pick up a 4th goalie as a backup for quality spot starts, and if so, who? I would be dropping an extra D that I don't need.

Peters (to give me Carolina's tandem, and I've read on here that you like him)
DiPietro (worth a gamble?)
Roloson (if not DiPietro?)
Crawford (quality starts on a quality team? but how many?)
Bernier (very good goalie, but like Crawford, how many starts?)
LaBarbera (solid starts when called upon last season)
Boucher (Leighton's back issues)
Smith (hurt now but will he get #1 upon his return, or is it Ellis' job to lose?),
or
NONE (my goalies are fine as they are)

Thanks in advance.

1. I would also be somewhat concerned with that trifecta. The good news is that saves is a category, and having Vokoun will give you a really nice boost in that category. I think your save percentage will be solid depending on Pavelec's consistency, something that he lacks compared to Ward and Vokoun.

2. All three goalies in the same division will hurt you, but not too much. It will suck having to choose one or the other, or rolling with both and knowing one will suffer a loss. Tough choices for sure!!

That being said, definitely snag a fourth goalie:

To choose from your list, I would go with Bernier, Roloson and then Peters.

The reason I would shy away from Peters is because he's also in the same division, so you really aren't helping yourself there from one of your main concerns.

Bernier would be my first choice because he is a stud in the making and not only was he already expected to beat out Ersberg for the other spot with Quick, but Ersberg has been off the ice for at least today and yesterday, so Bernier is getting more looks and more ice time. See school of block today for more thoughts on Bernier.

Roloson is a risk for sure. DiPietro the same. I would err on the side of veteran reliability and choose Roloson if you went with an Isles goaltender.

Hope that helps. It's definitely a tough little predicament but look over your options and go with the fourth goalie that you feel most comfortable with. Nothing wrong with looking at Crawford, but Roloson would be a better option IMO and of course Bernier is your silent assassin of the bunch.

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks for replying to my question; I would just like to add to it if you don't mind . I would like to add Bernier, but there are other goalies available including Niittymaki, Neuvirth, Thomas, and C. Mason. My question is, would adding Bernier as insurance for Quick still be a better option than simply adding one of those other guys?

If Neuvirth is available I would take him over Bernier just because he is guaranteed a roster spot.

Chris Mason is not a terrible option either, but I like the Kings and Caps teams in front of their respective goalies. And Mason only plays as much as Pavelec allows.

[Dutch]

Hey Justin,

I just have a quick question for you,

who is the Dallas Stars backup goalie (starter in 2 weeks)
I have a feeling lehtonen will be hurt again, and I
could use a goalie in my pts only league.

Absolutely nothing available on the wire, except this
potential backup/starter.

I just don't know who it's gonna be.

Any front runners?

Thanks, much appreciated

Dutch

[tictactoegoal]

Always enjoy reading your articles!

I have an opportunity to draft 2 of Bryzgalov/Rask/Kipper (wins/gaa/sv%/sho).

Who would you take? And what would expect from the duo? Also, who is a 3rd late round goalie to compliment? Thomas with Rask, or a 3rd?

Look forward to hearing your opinion.

[Renegade]

Hey Justin,

So I had my 16 team H2H roto draft this past sunday and was very nervous about my goalie chances. I had the third overall pick and had to pick Malkin. So when the 30th pick rolled around.. the following goalies were already taken.

Luongo
Miller
Lundqvist
Rask
Rinne
Broduer
Howard
Halak
Bryzgalov

I subscribed to HPG and using my league rankings.. I saw that Vokoun had the highest HPG value under our categories (W,SO,GAA,S%). Did I make the right choice or should I have picked someone that could have gotten me more wins like Anderson/Kiprusoff? I think I will feel more comfortable when Vokoun is traded... I also drafted Backstrom and Schneider.

[horrorfan]

1. I would also be somewhat concerned with that trifecta. The good news is that saves is a category, and having Vokoun will give you a really nice boost in that category. I think your save percentage will be solid depending on Pavelec's consistency, something that he lacks compared to Ward and Vokoun.

2. All three goalies in the same division will hurt you, but not too much. It will suck having to choose one or the other, or rolling with both and knowing one will suffer a loss. Tough choices for sure!!

That being said, definitely snag a fourth goalie:

To choose from your list, I would go with Bernier, Roloson and then Peters.

The reason I would shy away from Peters is because he's also in the same division, so you really aren't helping yourself there from one of your main concerns.

Bernier would be my first choice because he is a stud in the making and not only was he already expected to beat out Ersberg for the other spot with Quick, but Ersberg has been off the ice for at least today and yesterday, so Bernier is getting more looks and more ice time. See school of block today for more thoughts on Bernier.

Roloson is a risk for sure. DiPietro the same. I would err on the side of veteran reliability and choose Roloson if you went with an Isles goaltender.

Hope that helps. It's definitely a tough little predicament but look over your options and go with the fourth goalie that you feel most comfortable with. Nothing wrong with looking at Crawford, but Roloson would be a better option IMO and of course Bernier is your silent assassin of the bunch.

Awesome, thanks Justin.

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin,

I just have a quick question for you,

who is the Dallas Stars backup goalie (starter in 2 weeks)
I have a feeling lehtonen will be hurt again, and I
could use a goalie in my pts only league.

Absolutely nothing available on the wire, except this
potential backup/starter.

I just don't know who it's gonna be.

Any front runners?

Thanks, much appreciated

Dutch

I'm sure that Raycroft will play well enough to secure the backup spot. A lot will be determined tonight at a game I will be covering, Stars vs. Avs.

After working with Mike Valley for the last 9-10 months, I'm really excited to get to meet him tonight and I will try to interview him and do a "Current State of the Dallas Stars" article for the October Scouting Journal.

So stay tuned, I'll hopefully learn more about the Raycroft vs. Krahn battle.

Even though Lehtonen missed a practice with a sore groin, it's just one practice and he was back today.

Even if Raycroft wins the backup battle, he's got little upside and potential. If Lehtonen DOES get hurt, Krahn will get his chances to shine. I know I had Krahn listed in the Dobber Fantasy Guide as a goalie to watch and so he's worth a pickup if you are desperate and you are really sure that Lehtonen is going to get injured.

[BabyElias]

Hi Justin,

I really really like your work and insights in Dobberhockey & Goalie Guild. Your Tweets are also followed every day Thanks!

I need some help in my 1 year 10-teamer H2H pool: W, GAA, SV%, SO. Daily transactions, start 2 G.

I have now Rinne & Halak. I am looking for a good season from both of the guys, but I started wondering whether I need a 3rd goalie. All other managers have at least 3 goalies, 4 is maximum. I likely don't compete in W cat, but I see that I will be fairly OK in other cats (also in SO).

I narrowed down the FA goalies that I have my eye on:
Elliott - strong last season, Leclaire Band Aid Boy
Khabibulin - should be starter? EDM stronger this year
Giguere - who is starter? Don't like TOR
Gustavsson - see above
Conklin - how many starts this year? At least he is reliable back up and St Louis should be strong this year. Good hand-cuff for Halak?

Edit: Boucher is also available. Leighton out October. Good short term pick-up in this scenario?

I disregarded Pavelec (due to Mason, even though you are high on him), Roloson & DP (Streit & Okposo injured) and Osgood (sucks).

The question is: Who would you recommend on this list. I need Wins and peripheral stats that do not severely hurt what Rinne & Halak bring to the table.

THANK YOU!
-BabyElias aka EliasHanson

[lektrix]

Hi Justin,

What do you think of my goalies, the possible need for a trade to upgrade my offense, and the current goalie markets? I want, possibly need..to trade Leighton (IR) or Price, but can't decide who and when. Who has the higher chance to win my 1-year league, Leighton or Price? Should I wait one month for Leighton to heal or sell him now to "get whatever I can"? Can I afford to trade either one?

Available Goalies off the VERY THIN FA Market:

Clemmensen/Greiss/Deslauriers/Budaj/Schneider/Sanford/Lalime/Johnson/Markstrom/Holtby/Gerber/Dubnyk/Karlsson/Backlund/Bobrovsky/Peters/McElhinney

Thanks!