Halak/Mason/Bernier

[Pokerface]

Just seeking a little GG wisdom...based on your ability to see into the future.
Who is the best fantasy option based mostly on the usual stats in 3 yrs and then 5yrs?
thanks(Steve not Chris Mason)

[Pokerface]

Any readers want to jump in on this?

[Raja]

I'm sure GG will answer eventually!

5 years is quite a long time to look forward to, there's all kinds of factors that could change. Without going into detail and assuming the teams don't make any major changes...

3 Years
Halak
Mason
Bernier

5 years
Bernier
Halak
Mason

[GoalieGuild]

Hey sorry for the delayed reply - I was taking care of horses this weekend down in Franktown and just got back to my place a few hours ago.

This is really an almost impossible question to answer with any kind of real advice. I think all three goalies are capable of being great fantasy goalies in three years and in five years.

I think one way to decipher who could be where in 3 and 5 years is their rate of development from 1 - Skills point of view and 2 - mental point of view.

HALAK
Obviously has already proved his mental fortitude and toughness in the Olympics and playoffs. He is ahead of the curve in regards to the other two goalies. If his development was to continue at this pace, I like him at the top of the list in 3 years. Skill wise, he still has some things to work on but you can't debate his calm, composed and minimalistic style. It's effective and he'll continue to develop those skills as time goes on. He's on a team on the rise and capable of being a powerhouse over the next three years. So for the three-year column, put Halak first.

STEVE MASON
Had a tremendous rookie season and a terrible sophomore season. That's a sign that he's still developing his skills and that his mental toughness is not where it needs to be in order to show consistency from month-to-month or season-to-season. I will say that I've read more than two articles stating that Mason has come into this season with more focus and in much better shape. So if he can really prove his long-term value THIS season, I still like him in three years as a solid #1 fantasy goalie. But he won't be where Halak is in 3 years or in five. I would place him #2 on the 3-year list but on the five-year list he ends up last because of my expectations for Bernier. His elusive ingredient is that mental composure and he has to learn to shake off bad games and bad goals.

BERNIER
Obviously he is the big question mark for a number of reasons. First of all, he still hasn't secured a job in the NHL and he won't until Ersberg or Quick is moved. Nobody wants him to spend more time in the AHL since it won't help his rate of development, but there really isn't another choice. You'll have to wait and see what happens in training camp, as that will say a lot about his future over the next two years.

The new leg pad form-fitting regulations is another influence on his long-term potential. He's a tiny goalie (5-foot-11) wearing big pads so he might lose more padding than any other goalie in the NHL (Osgood and Enroth and Hedberg are some other goalies under 6-0 that will be affected).

Either way, Bernier is a stud due to his composure, mental toughness and skill. He's elite in all three areas. In three years, I don't think he's as strong as Halak due to experience but I think he's definitely right on the level of Mason. And LA is a team that is kind of like St. Louis in the sense that they are young, dynamic, talented and capable of getting stronger and stronger every year. Not sure if you see that in Columbus' future.

Five years for Bernier is the toughest to estimate. I will be honest - I have no clue. Your guess and your prophecy is as good as mine.

To summarize:

3-YEARS:
1. Halak
2. Mason
3. Bernier

5-YEARS:
1. Halak
2. Bernier
3. Mason

Hope that helps! Remember that a lot of this comes down to their ability to play consistently, have good opportunity on their respective team and of course have the mental toughness and durability to carry a workload heavy enough to be a #1 goalie on any 1-year or keeper fantasy team!

[Pokerface]

Thanks to both Raja And Justin. You guys both made a similar important point- it's almost impossible to know what's going to happen in the long term future! Way too many factors. Still I appreciate you guys attempting the impossible- Justin that was a much more detailed and lengthy response than I was expecting, cheers