Defending Deslauriers
I have been asked by David Staples from the Edmonton Journal to write a "spirited defense" of his recent blog about their goaltending situation.
He says JDD needs more AHL conditioning. I think he is bonkers
Think I'm up for the challenge?!? I am going to dig really deep here. I'm really up against it, as he has 100% legitimate statistics for how much JDD struggled last year. The comments all are generally in alliance that JDD was really bad last year.
http://communities.canada.com/edmont...he-season.aspx
I already know I can ace this. But it's going to take some work. I can't argue with statistics, but I can prove why last year's stats mean nothing heading into this year.
Go for it justin, i would argue that there isn't a he'll of a lot you can determine about ANY goalie when the team in front of him plays that piss poor. I think the fact that his S% was on the sunny side of .900 says a lot too. This year's team is going to be much different than last year's, there is alot of youth and excitement in EDM this season and that kind of energy can propel a goalie to excel (versus the demoralizing mess he played with last year)
Been tracking the conversation between you and Staples and I am really looking forward to what you come up with!
Well for me it's pretty simple... no goalie will post great numbers on the 09-10 Oilers. Being able to maintain a .901 is actually pretty impressive given the circumstances.
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The whole team is different which is great but more importantly, the team even started to turn things around when Whitney joined the team. The D-corps is improved and will be a presence this year. Make sure to point that out.
Edmonton let so many shots happen. I mean a goalie blocking 44 in one night is insane. Check out how many 40 shot games he saw.
League 1: 12 teams (drafted 10th) - Standard public Yahoo league - G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SOG - W,GAA,SV%,SHO
C:
LW:
RW:
D:
G:
Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers 48 2798 152 3.26 16 28 4 1377 0.901 4 3
Tied for 3rd worst shots against in the NHL last year at 33.1 per game. Edmonton had the third lowest shots on goal in the NHL last year.
They were a bad team. If we calculate in the quality of shots given up, I suspect that Deslauriers faced as many or more difficult shots per game, as any tender in the NHL. Vokoun, Hiller & Anderson would be the only comparables. For a kid, shoved into a bad situation, I thought he did all right.
There's not much defending him though. The Oil made that clear with their contract negotiations and signings of Gerber & Dubnyk.
Thanks for the comments.
The .901 save percentage is a great defense that proves he does not need AHL conditioning.
The 33.1 shots against helps a little as well. That's a beastly number.
But I go with what I know is truth - mental pressures lead to faulty technique. He was frustrated, had little help, was mired in disappointment. There was not a lot of positivity flowing through the locker room. Most goalies with his little NHL experience would struggle.
He was prepared to play the season as a backup. He was thrust into the starting role and THRIVED (not survived) with a .901 save percentage.
I think he clearly deserves an opportunity to start the season in a more comfortable situation and prove he's capable of being much more consistent.
And in a positive atmosphere, with positive reinforcement and a few opportunities, he'll succeed.
Staples is a highly stats oriented guy and while I am glad to have your perspective, just don't be upset if/when he poo poos any sort of non-statistical information like you often provide.
The mental side of goaltending, which you've done an excellent job of discussing the past few years here, and I am sure elsewhere, is likely to airy fairy for most statsy kind of guys. That's not to discount the value of what you're saying, but to say that you've got the harder end of the deal to try and support your position, and even when you do support your position with some great points, if they are not backed up by cold hard stats then you may find others not as convinced as you think they should be.
Case in point.
The .901 save percentage is being touted as JDD thriving on the Oilers team. From a purely statistical standpoint that seems crazy because only 6 goaltenders in the entire league were worse than that last year. Only 3 had a worse GAA than Deslauriers, and he was tied for first in the league in losses with 2 goalies who played 15 and 25 more games than he did.
Now there are all sorts of team issues there that need to be considered, I get that, but I am just pointing out where the obvious challenges lie in this discussion.
AND
This is why I am very interested to see your take on things. You had some pure gold last year on some of your goalie takes and I am slowly coming around, so I'm looking forward to seeing what you'll have.
You are absolutely right in everything you say.
A goalie scout can easily dissect stats because they are finite numbers. But that's only part of what makes a goalie tick. It's a combination of stats and situation that tells the whole story. I focus on the situation. I look at the whole picture and try to understand WHY the stats were what they were...it's a major part of understanding the specific ability of each and every goalie.
Staples' facts are not debatable. They are excellent proof that Deslauriers really struggled last year.
But every year is different. And a goalie grows and develops MORE when he faces difficult situations. He is only stronger mentally from what he experienced last year.
It's situation vs. stats. And you can't understand the stats without the situation.
But you can understand the situation without the stats and ultimately know much more about a goalie because of it.
Alllright I busted out a 2,000+ defense. Shipped and delivered and should be posted on Staples' blog shortly. Will be interesting to see what kind of response I get.
Interesting stuff. I personally don't know what to think about the factors you supply as I am certainly much more of a stats guy myself, but I'm looking forward to seeing what happens this season.
Spectacular stuff, Justin. People (you know, stat-focused people... I don't know anybody like that...... honest) often get so directly focused on the past stats that they gloss over the conditions that made those stats come about.
If I can paraphrase your argument: Deslaurier's stats were bad because the Oilers were bad. An element of defeatism crept into the mental aspect of JDD's game, and it hurt him. Most other goalies wouldn't have done as well in a similar situation, and JDD stepped up admirably.
Works for me, and very enlightening. You're probably the only writer out there who is talking about mental focus as a key aspect of evaluating goalie performance, and taking that into account. Given that it's such a huge part of playing the position, I think it offers a stunning insight that's usually missed.
I don't want it to come off like stats DON'T matter. They certainly do. They accurately reflect the way a goalie has performed in his select games and minutes played.
But there are so many influences on what dictates those performances that to go by stats alone and say "he needs more AHL conditioning" because the stats show he gave up a lot of weak goals is ...... well .... not faulty at all ..... but not a well-rounded answer.
I don't think JDD needs more AHL conditioning at all. I think he clearly has the skills to consistently compete in the NHL. But he has to prove it this year. He can't show the same faulty positioning, weak rebound control, etc etc that Staples effectively proves took place last season. If he does, his career as a potential #1 will be over. His reputation won't give him those opportunities and he'll be a career backup.
If he has a strong start to the season and shows some sharpness and improvement in those areas and has more balance between active and passive styles, he'll have an improved confidence and therefore the consistency will be there.
The key is to realize that skill is a result of mental factors. Stats are a result of how they perform, but how they perform is a result of how they prepare mentally.
You're preaching to the choir, bud!
You're clearly not disagreeing that Deslauriers put up bad stats last year -- you're just pointing out that Staples jumping from that truth to the statement that JDD needs time in the AHL is a jump in logic that doesn't adequately capture the factors in play here. I think you put that case forward very well.
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