Fantasy Mailbag - August 23

[Ron Burgundy]

Wow is this site great - new member here and I am particularly enjoying your goalie material here and on the Guild webside Justin. No offence to the other writers on Dobbers site as I'm enjoying their stuff as well, but there is lots of info available on skaters out on the interweb or the news stand, but rarely is there any focus on goalies, and even more rarely on keeper goalies. Anyway, add my thanks to the long list above.

Hopefully I'm not too late with this question, which is, in a dynasty league which 2 would you keep of Leighton, Chet Pickard and Peters? One of them will join Lundqvist and Rinne as starters this year, and the other will go on the farm.

It's a roto-style league with categories for wins, s% and GAA, so I'm leaning towards Leighton purely on a wins basis (I've got a good shot this year I think). I'm worried though that his miraculous turnaround in Philly is due to the Pronger effect, which he may not have the benefit of for part of the year. On the other other hand, if Peters' ceiling is that he'll only ever be as good as Leighton, I may as well stick with the current version. I like Pickard the best of the three long-term.

And while I'm on the "line", as an Oilers fan I'm wondering what you think their goaltending situation will look like if Khabibulin goes to jail or is otherwise not in uniform.

Thanks again

[GoalieGuild]

hey justin,
thanx for doing this again, always so interesting to read your thought on goalies.
would mind laying out some projections for this season(wins and shutouts) for a few goalies, and a brief reasoning...
elliot
leclaire
chris mason
pavelec
gustavson
turco
vokoun
gigeure
hiller

thanx again, and i look forward to reading more...

Elliot: Around 26 to 28 wins with 3 or 4 shutouts ... Plays more than Leclaire and has a little more consistency than last season. He will fall short of 30 wins but if he exceeds expectations he'll reach that number.

Leclaire: Around 19 to 21 wins with 3 or 4 shutouts ... Plays less than Elliot due to some kind of crazy injury and depending on how he handles another season similar to last year, he at least finds a way to notch 20 wins.

CMason: Around 13 to 15 wins with 2 or 3 shutouts ... Does very well in a backup role and does not lose a lot of games. This hinges on Pavelec improving under a new goalie coach and behind a better team.

Pavelec: Around 30 to 32 wins with 4 or 5 shutouts ... I like his ability to improve under Malarchuk, he was already on my list of "goalies to watch" in Dobber's Guide and has the skills to be great. If he plays with more composure and calmness it will be a sign he's mentally maturing.

Gustavsson: Around 33 to 35 wins with 3 or 4 shutouts ... Read a previous answer in this forum for reasons why.

Giguere: Around 15 to 17 wins with 2 or 3 shutouts ... Same as above. I think he'll be a lot like Mason ... very good playing less games than usual with the ability to run with things if the other guy really struggles.

Turco: Around 35 to 37 wins with 4 or 5 shutouts ... Turco in front of a good defense again? Should be good. 35-37 wins is if everything goes right ... but he should be on the right side of a lot more OT games ... might push him to 35+ wins.

Vokoun: Around 34 to 36 wins with 5 or 6 shutouts ... I think this is the year he has a stronger start and rides it out over the whole season and puts Florida in prime pouncing mode for 7th or 8th place in the East.

Hiller: Around 33 to 35 wins with 4 or 5 shutouts ... Should be a little more consistent than last year but Anaheim's defense will have to play very well. They might undergo similar struggles to that of Dallas when they lost Zubov. Hiller will face more shots and have to prove his elite skills in order to keep his fantasy value the same as last year.

[GoalieGuild]

Hey Justin thanks for doing this! In a keeper league considering drafting a goalie in our prospect draft most of the big names are gone in the past you have spoken highly of Mayer I am also considering brobovsky do any hold value within a few seasons

I don't think either of them hold ONE-YEAR fantasy value in two seasons but BOTH will have legit KEEPER fantasy value in two seasons. I really think Mayer has the assets to be a "smaller" goalie that can thrive in the NHL. Great upside with a very unique path/background. So he's what I would consider a "diamond in the rough" ... especially if he does find a way to hold down that #4 spot in the depth chart behind Curtis Sanford.

Bobrovsky is signed to a pretty lucrative entry-level deal, so the Flyers have put a considerable amount of faith in him for the next three years. Even if he makes the AHL this season and has a crappy year, he's going to be around for a while. If he ends up in the ECHL or is headed back to Russia, he's already a major player in the Flyers depth chart. Other than Riopel and Eriksson, he's the future in net.

I like Mayer better than Bobrovsky on a personal note. Their value will rise or fall in the "long-term prospect" ranking depending on where they play this season.

[GoalieGuild]

Wow is this site great - new member here and I am particularly enjoying your goalie material here and on the Guild webside Justin. No offence to the other writers on Dobbers site as I'm enjoying their stuff as well, but there is lots of info available on skaters out on the interweb or the news stand, but rarely is there any focus on goalies, and even more rarely on keeper goalies. Anyway, add my thanks to the long list above.

Hopefully I'm not too late with this question, which is, in a dynasty league which 2 would you keep of Leighton, Chet Pickard and Peters? One of them will join Lundqvist and Rinne as starters this year, and the other will go on the farm.

It's a roto-style league with categories for wins, s% and GAA, so I'm leaning towards Leighton purely on a wins basis (I've got a good shot this year I think). I'm worried though that his miraculous turnaround in Philly is due to the Pronger effect, which he may not have the benefit of for part of the year. On the other other hand, if Peters' ceiling is that he'll only ever be as good as Leighton, I may as well stick with the current version. I like Pickard the best of the three long-term.

And while I'm on the "line", as an Oilers fan I'm wondering what you think their goaltending situation will look like if Khabibulin goes to jail or is otherwise not in uniform.

Thanks again

I think Leighton and Pickard are the way to go here. If you do a "Michael Leighton" search in the forums and look for threads in School of Block, you'll see some of my running analysis on him from last season. He has always been a very capable goalie and he has great size. Flyers did a good job bringing him in. He gained a lot of confidence last season and was just as likely to win the Cup as Niemi ... but you don't hear anyone raving about how valuable he is. I wouldn't worry about the "Pronger" effect as he still has the ability to stop pucks behind a strong defense, which takes more "mental toughness" than a goalie that's always seeing shots. So either way, Leighton is establishing himself as an NHL goalie and should have all the opportunity in the world to maintain a starting role in Philly.

Pickard is a goalie with great size and a great pedigree. In Nashville's system, he will develop into a great NHL puck stopper and either turn into the starter or be moved to a team where he'll get chances. This is the factory that is known as the Korn Kamp in Nashville. Mitch Korn is one of the best in the world. They have many good prospects in the system to develop so Pickard is going to get his chances.

So will Peters, but Pickard comes with a little more assurance in the long-term.

So I would roll with Leighton and then Pickard =).

And welcome to the site Thanks for the kind words and enjoy!

[royalninja]

thanx justin,
awesome insight once again!!!

[andrewklassen]

How many games does Rask start this season? I lost Nabokov and am trying to determine whether Rask is worthy of a #1 or #2 role on my roster with Fleury. We have a points only league so more starts equals more wins equals more points. His ability is not in question, but games played is. How do you see Rask in comparison with Turco, Leighton, or Nittymaki this year in GP?

Thoughts.

[staggassi]

Thanks in advance for the help...

Here is the dilemma I'm faced with in a dynasty league...

My current goalie situation is, needless to say, on life support complete with an all liquid diet fed through a tube in the throat and a ventilator breathing for me. I lost Nabby to the KHL, so my current goalies sit as such...

Antti Niemi, Rick DiPietro, and Nikolai Khabibulin. Ya ouch I know. I've won the league two years in a row now, so my draft position has been very poor, and my prospect roster has no help for me. I have been offered a couple of trades here and would like your opinion on the following matters.

1. Does Niemi sign this year, and where do you see him playing?
2. Does DiPietro cowboy up and play this year?
3. I was offered Turco and Kostitsyn for Tyler Ennis. Thoughts?
4. I get Lundqvist + Plekanec for H. Sedin + Nash. Thoughts?

Once again thanks!

[Vasilios]

Greetings,

I am in a 19 team keeper league with a 10% salary increase yearly. Our salary cap is $60. I have Rask as my #1 @ $3.50 with both Turco & Pavelec @ $2.20. Before Turco signed in Chicago I was planning on keeping Pavelec, as i really like his long term potential. We are allowed to protect between 13 & 15 players for a 20 man roster 2 Goalies, 6 Defense, 4 RW, 4 LW, & 4 Centres.Turco in CHI is capable of coming up with some career best stats. I think that I should be able to contend this year and at least get into a top 4 spot. Since Turco signed I have gotten some interesting offers for him but only draft picks for the jr. entry draft. No better than #15 overall. I am thinking Turco's value will only increase as the year goes on . I already have #3, #7 & #18 OA, so more draft picks dont really help as I am maxed out and will have to release players on the devo squad, if I wish to exercise the picks that I have.

Thanks,

Any input would be appreciated

Vas

[GoalieGuild]

How many games does Rask start this season? I lost Nabokov and am trying to determine whether Rask is worthy of a #1 or #2 role on my roster with Fleury. We have a points only league so more starts equals more wins equals more points. His ability is not in question, but games played is. How do you see Rask in comparison with Turco, Leighton, or Nittymaki this year in GP?

Thoughts.

I have Rask pegged for close to 60 games. I think at the least, Rask makes a perfect 1A or 1B goalie for Fleury. Fleury is obviously guaranteed to start more games but I think Rask plays his way into at least 55 games. If you don't question his ability then you should not be questioning his ability to retain a starting role on the team, therefore 60 games is not a stretch.

Turco will start close to 65 games if he's consistent. Leighton will start closer to 50. Niittymaki will eclipse the 60-game peak as well. But between them all, Leighton will start the least amount of games.

Hope that helps!! I wouldn't pass up having a Rask/Fleury tandem at all but of course it depends on who else you have to choose from.

[GoalieGuild]

Thanks in advance for the help...

Here is the dilemma I'm faced with in a dynasty league...

My current goalie situation is, needless to say, on life support complete with an all liquid diet fed through a tube in the throat and a ventilator breathing for me. I lost Nabby to the KHL, so my current goalies sit as such...

Antti Niemi, Rick DiPietro, and Nikolai Khabibulin. Ya ouch I know. I've won the league two years in a row now, so my draft position has been very poor, and my prospect roster has no help for me. I have been offered a couple of trades here and would like your opinion on the following matters.

1. Does Niemi sign this year, and where do you see him playing?
2. Does DiPietro cowboy up and play this year?
3. I was offered Turco and Kostitsyn for Tyler Ennis. Thoughts?
4. I get Lundqvist + Plekanec for H. Sedin + Nash. Thoughts?

Once again thanks!

1. As of today, I don't see Niemi signing anywhere but the Islanders, if in fact Rick DiPietro is not as healthy as everyone is being led to believe. So that's not going to materialize for another month. I would be blown away if he signed in Nashville, they are pretty much set on letting Dekanich win that job behind Rinne. Montreal is a possibility of the Price negotiations totally fail. No other team is in need of a goalie.

The only way I see Niemi playing in the NHL this year is if a team's starter or 1B goalie gets injured.

2. Yes, DiPietro plays this year. The question is for how many games. Maybe 10? Maybe 20? I don't think he's going to be nearly as "ready" for the season as everyone thinks and if the Islanders (or he) pushes him too hard, he'll end up on the IR ........ again. But hey maybe that's what ends up giving Niemi a place to play.

3. Well Turco would be a good goalie to get for sure. But I don't know much about Ennis and Kostitsyn...so I can't really evaluate that trade at all.

4. I would take the Turco trade over this one just because I wouldn't feel comfortable giving up Sedin and the leader of the Blue Jackets for a goalie that might not be as statistically impressive as he was last season. But Turco will be on a major rise and nobody knows how good he might be. He could be like he was in his best years in Dallas when Zubov was there. But it's tougher for Lundqvist to match his output from last year with smaller pads and even more space exposed in the lower and upper corners.