LOL interesting. You are in a keeper league but you only want the goalies above ranked for this season. Nice. Here's what I've come up with, hope this helps!
*1. Lehtonen
2. Ellis
3. Gustavsson
4. Neuvirth
5. Elliot
6. Leighton
7. Greiss
8. C. Mason
9. Giguere
10. Crawford
11. Thomas
12. Leclaire
There is an asterisk next to Lehtonen because that's if you expect him to stay healthy. That easily puts him at the top of the list. If you expect him to miss time, slide him down accordingly. Ellis, Gustavsson, Elliot, Leighton are all expected to handle the heavier workload compared to the other goalie on their team. It's going to be close between Neuvy and Varly but I'm sticking to my guns with Neuvy.
Hi Justin,
What are your thoughts on Fleury? Is he capable of becoming a top goalie or is he just a good goalie playing on a great team? Also, do you see Lundqvist taking a step back this year or is he money in the bank? One more question, what will we be saying about J. Campbell in five years?
Thanks!
Thanks again for doing this, always my favorite since I'm a goalie myself!
With Desjardins coming to Tampa how does that effect Janus' value long term?
With Huet likely going to Switzerland if the rumors are true, I have the option of grabbing Dubnyk, Karlsson, Janus, Desjardins, or Khudobin as my #3 goalie, leaning towards Dubnyk.
I'm not competing this year so their performance isn't an issue really, but who do you think will be the best next year and the year after? I don't necessarily need them for starts on any given week, just the best sv%, saves, and gaa mainly. W and SHO of course are the other categories.
Last edited by Raja; August 23, 2010 at 4:29 PM.
Hey Justin,thoroughly enjoy reading all your articles.I own ward,halak,turco,and gustavsson.i have someone interested in the monster and is offering a forward with potential(but kinda risky as he is classed as a band aid boy). my question though is what potential does gus have if i were to keep him as a replacement for turco in the next 2-3 years.
IFL-full keeper,g,a,+/-,ppg,ppa,shg,gwg(goalies)w,so,shots,-1/goal :dress 9f,6d, 2g/ week 25man roster.
kucherov,marner,mathews,ovechkin,oshie,s.aho, kopitar, kadri,stephenson,malkin, Hartman,Erickson EK(d)letang,krug,fox, doughty ,goligoski,ekholm, forsling, durzi, grzelcyk(g)bobrovsky,m.a.fleury, reimer, francouz
ABL-markstrom,shesterkin,ullmark(f)Giroux,Tavares,ovec hkin,geuntzel, Sam Bennett , r Strome , buchnevich, zbinejad,bjorkstrand , Vrana, stone,pacioretty, rust , Rossi(d)brannstrom,ellis,hedman, Ty smith, Teows, weegar,Soucy , gostisbehere (same stats as above league)
Hi, thanks for doing this.
What do you feel about Ward going forward? I know they played much better in the second half (they would have made the playoffs if they played that pace all year) but I don't like CAR much.
My keepers are in my sig, save I traded Hossa for Perry.
The other goalies possibly available are: Halak, Nittymaki, Lehtonen, Hiller, Rhinne, Howard, Anderson and Varlamov.
My other option is to try to get Zetterberg and not keep Ward. By default I am keeping Ward as he is my best 9th (instead of Franzen).
Thanks for your thoughts.
Sneeze Girl: retired (Brett Favre'd)
______________________________________
9 Keeper, 7 Teams:
1 G, 1 A, 1 PPA, 1 PPG, 2 GWG, 1 SHG, +/-
3 WIN, -1 LOST, 5 SHUTOUT, -0.5 GA, 0.3 SV, -0.2 SHOT
I think Wesslau would be between Karlsson and Elliot. I think he needs at least 2 years in the AHL before he's ready to fight for a starting job in the NHL. So three years is definitely possible and I think he has the skill and ability to make it happen.
I believe the goalie you are referring to is Jason Missiaen, the big hulking 6-foot-7 goalie that was previously property of Montreal. I don't expect him to get signed to a pro contract unless he's found a way to refine his game and move with more efficiency. He's almost too big to be effective at the pro level. But anything is possible, you can't rule it out at all. I just wouldn't get excited over it until camp is over.
Fleury is a lot like what you see in Steve Mason, but on a much stronger team. All the skill in the world, but is a mental case. By that I mean he struggles with consistency, focus and perseverence. When he's hot, he's confident and playing at his best. When he gives up a few bad goals, it's very easy to see him tense up, tighten up, question his abilities and struggle.
Until Fleury really wraps his mind around the professionalism of being a true starter, he will continue to be up and down, hot and cold. If he can stay healthy and show that he has matured over the summer, his season will be better. If you don't see any "maturity" to his attitude, demeanor and play early in the pre-season or regular season, expect more of the same. I can't answer whether or not he's taken those steps because I just don't know.
But that is what you need to watch for when determining his value for this season.
Personally I think Fleury is still another year or two away from developing the mental toughness needed to stay super-consistent on a strong offensive team. He's still like a Mason or a Turco but needs to be more like a Nabokov or Bryzgalov. Right now he's a really talented goalie on a strong team but lacks mental toughness. But he's capable of being the complete package in another year or two.
Lundqvist - let's see how much length he loses on his pads before making any real predictions. I've said a few times over the summer that this might be the one thing that finally forces him to play higher in his crease, which will make him a better goalie overall. Could be a transition year for him.....but when it comes to an elite talent like Hank, you're better off realizing these pad changes are not going to hold him back. He might see slightly elevated stats, but he's pretty much the same exact goalie. I'm sure he'll be fine.
Jack Campbell - The best way I can describe him is like this. Whenever I tout a goalie as being an elite future star, there's always an inherent risk with that label because anything can happen. No matter how good a goalie happens to be, they have to prove their worth and improve their skill every single day.
But with Campbell, that feeling of risk is pretty much non-existent. He's going to be good. It's very easy to see he has everything it takes. Nothing is missing other than opportunity. And in Dallas, he'll get plenty of opportunities. He's going to be really good LOL.
Janus' long-term value has been greatly affected by this move ... but again, until the season is ready to start and we know exactly where he's slated, it's still quite possible he's playing in the AHL this season. But he won't beat out Tokarski or Desjardins for the job, so right now it's a tough pill to swallow for Janus owners.
I get the sense there's something happening behind the scenes with Janus. He's too talented of a prospect to push down to the ECHL ... so the Desjardins signing might have another sub-plot to it. I can't say for sure, I'm only speculating ... but my goalie instincts says there's something wrong w/ Janus and his relationship with the Lightning. I really hope he doesn't end up overseas like Helenius.
I like Karlsson a lot. I think he won't play as many games as he deserves but puts himself in a position to be traded to a team that will give him a better opportunity. It worked wonders for McElhinney. They are nothing alike, but it's an example. Otherwise yeah, Dubnyk would be my next choice. He's probably going to see some games in Edmonton, but I have to point out the "one-way" portion of his contract might distract from him getting NHL games. But he should have a great season in the AHL and continue to develop his NHL-caliber skills!
I definitely think you should hang onto Gustavsson. I expect very good things from him. He flies under the radar as nobody really knows much about him. I've been covering him very closely since he decided he wanted to carve an NHL career path. He made incredible strides in the 2nd half of last season. He displayed a lot of perseverence and mental toughness. He showed he's capable of adjusting his style in order to better stop pucks in the NHL. He has a great mentor in Giguere and the best goalie coach in the world working with him. Brian Burke likes him. He has a great frame and very nice hybrid butterfly style. He has all of the tools needed to be great. He has a great work ethic. These are all aspects that I wouldn't consider "elite" but for his first year in the NHL and considering all of the emotional aspects that come into play when losing a family member, he was a lot better than anyone expected. Well, I expected it, but nobody really knew what to look for. I think I helped a lot of people on here understand the different dynamics that come into play when looking at Gustavsson. I think he proved a lot and I am sure he will have plenty of confidence heading into this season and it will only grow.
All of those are great reasons why Gustavsson is destined for good things in the next 2-3 years. If anyone tells you Gustavsson isn't a good goalie and that he doesn't have the skill to be a good NHL goalie doesn't truly understand what his issues were at the start of the season and how he was able to fix them by the end of the season.
All he has to do is keep working hard. The fire is there, so other than the usual "risks", nothing leads me to believe he's going to struggle like he did last year.
thanks so much for the input Justin. that reply just confirms the reasons i picked this kid up.
IFL-full keeper,g,a,+/-,ppg,ppa,shg,gwg(goalies)w,so,shots,-1/goal :dress 9f,6d, 2g/ week 25man roster.
kucherov,marner,mathews,ovechkin,oshie,s.aho, kopitar, kadri,stephenson,malkin, Hartman,Erickson EK(d)letang,krug,fox, doughty ,goligoski,ekholm, forsling, durzi, grzelcyk(g)bobrovsky,m.a.fleury, reimer, francouz
ABL-markstrom,shesterkin,ullmark(f)Giroux,Tavares,ovec hkin,geuntzel, Sam Bennett , r Strome , buchnevich, zbinejad,bjorkstrand , Vrana, stone,pacioretty, rust , Rossi(d)brannstrom,ellis,hedman, Ty smith, Teows, weegar,Soucy , gostisbehere (same stats as above league)
hey justin,
thanx for doing this again, always so interesting to read your thought on goalies.
would mind laying out some projections for this season(wins and shutouts) for a few goalies, and a brief reasoning...
elliot
leclaire
chris mason
pavelec
gustavson
turco
vokoun
gigeure
hiller
thanx again, and i look forward to reading more...
Keeper League , points only, drop 5 at seasons end
G- f.andersen, hellybuyck
F- huberdeau, Malkin, guentzel, rust, dach, caufield, tarasenko, Thompson, necas, p. Kane, barzal, scheifele
Hey Justin thanks for doing this! In a keeper league considering drafting a goalie in our prospect draft most of the big names are gone in the past you have spoken highly of Meyer I am also considering brobovsky do any hold value within a few seasons
Thank for the insight, great stuff
Status quo for Ward this year. Same "under the radar" fantasy value on a team that has the ability to be great but really underachieved last year because of a terrible start. He's safer when it comes to knee protection, so I don't expect him to miss as many games as last year, making his expected fantasy value higher than last season. Great goalie to own, total workhorse and a mentor working in front of a new backup in Justin Peters.
I don't think you get any more confidence out of owning another goalie you listed. Maybe with Howard or Halak, but it might not be worth going through the trade process and you might regret it later. Better of sticking to your guns. Can't really speak for the value of having Zetterberg over Ward but I would just stick with what you have.