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Thread: Young Unproven Goalies vs. Prospect Goalies Rank

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    Default Young Unproven Goalies vs. Prospect Goalies Rank

    If the thread title made no sense I apologize. Lately, I've been trying to compare some unproven goalies, but generally can not find them all on any one list. When I say prospect I mean it the way Dobber or TGG have defined it (Dobber 0 GP, TGG 25 GP or under). When I mean young goalie I am looking at some of the still unproven young goalies who don't meet those GP requirements like: Varlamov, Leighton, Pavelec, Schneider, Crawford, Neuvirth. (Dobber doesn't count last 3, TGG does)

    I can never find the Prospects on the same list as these "Young Unproven" goalies. can someone mesh the two lists in terms of "REALISTIC POTENTIAL"? (I know they are all on Dobber's Top 100 but there is clearly a heavy influence on current production).

    By "Realistic Potential" I mean what can be expected of them in their career, not what would happen if all the stars aligned and the perfect scenario played out.

    In other words in 25 years when all of these players have retired, how do you think they would be ranked?

    Prospects
    Bernier (7 GP)
    Markstrom
    Schneider(10 GP)
    Lehner
    Stalock
    Greiss (19 GP)
    Campbell
    Neuvirth (22 GP)
    Crawford (8 GP)
    Enroth (1 GP)
    Salak

    Young Unproven Goalies
    Varlamov
    Leighton
    Pavelec
    Gustavsson
    Elliot, Leclaire, Howard, Price may be deemed unproven too but I'm less concern about their rank.

    Feel free to place these goalies among the spectrum of other greats, example:

    Brodeur
    Roy

    Bernier?
    Markstrom?

    Ward
    Fleury

    Stalock
    Lehner . . . . Just an example, but I don't know what to think. Massive thanks in advance.
    Yahoo H2H League: 12 Team, Full Keeper, 26 players plus farm team (3 round prospect draft, players<100gp)
    G,A,P,+/,PIM,PPG,PPA,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,FW,W,Sv,Sv%,GA,GA%,SH O

    Centers: Crosby, Duchene, Ribeiro, Weiss, Backlund, Shore
    RW: Eberle, Voracek, Horton, Grabner, Atkinson
    LW: Parise, Ovechkin, Moulson, Ennis, Tlusty, Boedker,
    D: Shattenkirk, Carlson, Del Zotto, Barrie, Faulk
    G: Pavelec, Varlamov, Lindback, Enroth

    Farm: Lehner, Stalock, Salak, Yakupov, Rattie, Gudbranson, Josefson, Josi, Bjugstad

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    Goaltending is the most difficult position to predict and the volatile in terms of long term performance. Ranking young goalies as far as their careers go is almost impossible; you may as well throw darts at a board IMO. Factors include what teams they end up playing for, what kind of competition they have, injuries, and of course opportunities. Also, how willing are they to take a pay cut in the salary cap era? Niemi wasn't. Now he's sitting on the sidelines and probably won't be resigned by an NHL team.

    If you are looking at pure upside while ignoring all these factors, then I would say the elite goaltending prospects would include:

    Bernier
    Markstrom
    Varlamov
    Neuvirth
    Campbell

    These are guys that could POTENTIALLY have a high-end NHL career if the stars align and they stay healthy on a competitive team. Unlikely any would reach the lofty heights that Roy or Brodeur have reached. These guys are rare exceptions.

    Next level down I would probably place:

    Pavelec
    Lehner
    Schneider
    Salak

    The other guys I am not familiar enough with to rank them. Hopefully Justin Goldman stops by for a comment.

    Good luck!
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    Thanks, I'd love some more input. But it is helpful to see you rank Pavelec ahead of Lehner for instance.
    Yahoo H2H League: 12 Team, Full Keeper, 26 players plus farm team (3 round prospect draft, players<100gp)
    G,A,P,+/,PIM,PPG,PPA,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,FW,W,Sv,Sv%,GA,GA%,SH O

    Centers: Crosby, Duchene, Ribeiro, Weiss, Backlund, Shore
    RW: Eberle, Voracek, Horton, Grabner, Atkinson
    LW: Parise, Ovechkin, Moulson, Ennis, Tlusty, Boedker,
    D: Shattenkirk, Carlson, Del Zotto, Barrie, Faulk
    G: Pavelec, Varlamov, Lindback, Enroth

    Farm: Lehner, Stalock, Salak, Yakupov, Rattie, Gudbranson, Josefson, Josi, Bjugstad

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    Bernier
    Campbell
    Markstrom
    GAP
    Neuvirth
    Schneider
    Lehner
    Greiss
    Varlamov
    Crawford
    Enroth
    Salak
    Stalock

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    Quote Originally Posted by TML View Post
    Bernier
    Campbell
    Markstrom
    GAP
    Neuvirth
    Schneider
    Lehner
    Greiss
    Varlamov
    Crawford
    Enroth
    Salak
    Stalock
    Thanks TML is Pavelec below all these guys? or just omitted?
    Yahoo H2H League: 12 Team, Full Keeper, 26 players plus farm team (3 round prospect draft, players<100gp)
    G,A,P,+/,PIM,PPG,PPA,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,FW,W,Sv,Sv%,GA,GA%,SH O

    Centers: Crosby, Duchene, Ribeiro, Weiss, Backlund, Shore
    RW: Eberle, Voracek, Horton, Grabner, Atkinson
    LW: Parise, Ovechkin, Moulson, Ennis, Tlusty, Boedker,
    D: Shattenkirk, Carlson, Del Zotto, Barrie, Faulk
    G: Pavelec, Varlamov, Lindback, Enroth

    Farm: Lehner, Stalock, Salak, Yakupov, Rattie, Gudbranson, Josefson, Josi, Bjugstad

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    Quote Originally Posted by capretto2002 View Post
    Thanks TML is Pavelec below all these guys? or just omitted?
    Just omitted. I decided to do all the prospects. Pavelec is probably under Varlamov. He's going to need some time, and isnt' on the best team. But the real reason I guess are injury concerns. And plus, when you rank him among those guys, his skill isn't that great.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TML View Post
    Just omitted. I decided to do all the prospects. Pavelec is probably under Varlamov. He's going to need some time, and isnt' on the best team. But the real reason I guess are injury concerns. And plus, when you rank him among those guys, his skill isn't that great.
    Thanks again!!!
    Yahoo H2H League: 12 Team, Full Keeper, 26 players plus farm team (3 round prospect draft, players<100gp)
    G,A,P,+/,PIM,PPG,PPA,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,FW,W,Sv,Sv%,GA,GA%,SH O

    Centers: Crosby, Duchene, Ribeiro, Weiss, Backlund, Shore
    RW: Eberle, Voracek, Horton, Grabner, Atkinson
    LW: Parise, Ovechkin, Moulson, Ennis, Tlusty, Boedker,
    D: Shattenkirk, Carlson, Del Zotto, Barrie, Faulk
    G: Pavelec, Varlamov, Lindback, Enroth

    Farm: Lehner, Stalock, Salak, Yakupov, Rattie, Gudbranson, Josefson, Josi, Bjugstad

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    Quote Originally Posted by sentium View Post
    I have been there, the problem and really the purpose of this post is to see where a few goalies who are over the Games Played requirement would fit in talent-wise.

    varlamov, Pavelec, and Leighton primarily, but I'd love to have it extend to Gustavsson, Howard, Elliott. None of them are on TGG's list.

    But I'm also not looking for Dobber's Top 100 Goalies, because that list is weighted towards current production.

    Ultimately what is the list for "Who you'd build your team around if you were building from Goal out?"

    Thanks again to any and all.
    Yahoo H2H League: 12 Team, Full Keeper, 26 players plus farm team (3 round prospect draft, players<100gp)
    G,A,P,+/,PIM,PPG,PPA,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,FW,W,Sv,Sv%,GA,GA%,SH O

    Centers: Crosby, Duchene, Ribeiro, Weiss, Backlund, Shore
    RW: Eberle, Voracek, Horton, Grabner, Atkinson
    LW: Parise, Ovechkin, Moulson, Ennis, Tlusty, Boedker,
    D: Shattenkirk, Carlson, Del Zotto, Barrie, Faulk
    G: Pavelec, Varlamov, Lindback, Enroth

    Farm: Lehner, Stalock, Salak, Yakupov, Rattie, Gudbranson, Josefson, Josi, Bjugstad

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    No disrespect to Dobber, but I'd take Justin's list over his any day of the week There are some quite big weirdnesses after you get past 30th place in Dobber's list.
    GO WINGS!

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    Quote Originally Posted by sentium View Post
    No disrespect to Dobber, but I'd take Justin's list over his any day of the week There are some quite big weirdnesses after you get past 30th place in Dobber's list.
    Well does TGG have a list that combines prospects and proven goalies? that's what I'm looking for.
    Yahoo H2H League: 12 Team, Full Keeper, 26 players plus farm team (3 round prospect draft, players<100gp)
    G,A,P,+/,PIM,PPG,PPA,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,FW,W,Sv,Sv%,GA,GA%,SH O

    Centers: Crosby, Duchene, Ribeiro, Weiss, Backlund, Shore
    RW: Eberle, Voracek, Horton, Grabner, Atkinson
    LW: Parise, Ovechkin, Moulson, Ennis, Tlusty, Boedker,
    D: Shattenkirk, Carlson, Del Zotto, Barrie, Faulk
    G: Pavelec, Varlamov, Lindback, Enroth

    Farm: Lehner, Stalock, Salak, Yakupov, Rattie, Gudbranson, Josefson, Josi, Bjugstad

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    I'll try to get him here
    GO WINGS!

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    Quote Originally Posted by sentium View Post
    I'll try to get him here
    Sweet, highly appreciated!
    Yahoo H2H League: 12 Team, Full Keeper, 26 players plus farm team (3 round prospect draft, players<100gp)
    G,A,P,+/,PIM,PPG,PPA,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,FW,W,Sv,Sv%,GA,GA%,SH O

    Centers: Crosby, Duchene, Ribeiro, Weiss, Backlund, Shore
    RW: Eberle, Voracek, Horton, Grabner, Atkinson
    LW: Parise, Ovechkin, Moulson, Ennis, Tlusty, Boedker,
    D: Shattenkirk, Carlson, Del Zotto, Barrie, Faulk
    G: Pavelec, Varlamov, Lindback, Enroth

    Farm: Lehner, Stalock, Salak, Yakupov, Rattie, Gudbranson, Josefson, Josi, Bjugstad

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    Let me think this over and look back at the original posts and I will write up some thoughts.

    I probably should have been keeping track of the "recent graduates" on my Top-100 and listed where they graduated and if they are "up" or "down" compared to that graduated rank. ARGH!

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    Quote Originally Posted by capretto2002 View Post
    If the thread title made no sense I apologize. Lately, I've been trying to compare some unproven goalies, but generally can not find them all on any one list. When I say prospect I mean it the way Dobber or TGG have defined it (Dobber 0 GP, TGG 25 GP or under). When I mean young goalie I am looking at some of the still unproven young goalies who don't meet those GP requirements like: Varlamov, Leighton, Pavelec, Schneider, Crawford, Neuvirth. (Dobber doesn't count last 3, TGG does)

    I can never find the Prospects on the same list as these "Young Unproven" goalies. can someone mesh the two lists in terms of "REALISTIC POTENTIAL"? (I know they are all on Dobber's Top 100 but there is clearly a heavy influence on current production).

    By "Realistic Potential" I mean what can be expected of them in their career, not what would happen if all the stars aligned and the perfect scenario played out.

    In other words in 25 years when all of these players have retired, how do you think they would be ranked?

    Prospects
    Bernier (7 GP)
    Markstrom
    Schneider(10 GP)
    Lehner
    Stalock
    Greiss (19 GP)
    Campbell
    Neuvirth (22 GP)
    Crawford (8 GP)
    Enroth (1 GP)
    Salak

    Young Unproven Goalies
    Varlamov
    Leighton
    Pavelec
    Gustavsson
    Elliot, Leclaire, Howard, Price may be deemed unproven too but I'm less concern about their rank.
    Okay so this is a great little question and one I knew would get asked sooner or later (in regards to my Top-100).

    I think it is important to consider exactly what you mean by "unproven" goalies. Like do you mean in the fantasy realm (I'm sure that's what you meant) or do you mean skill-wise? Again, it's crucial to define every subjective term used when asking a question like this. But obviously I am sure you meant unproven in the fantasy term.

    To get to the point, I took the goalies from your two mini-lists above and meshed them together. You're looking for super long-term potential and how their rank might look when they are all gimpy old men and close to retiring. As you can imagine, this is almost like taking a shot in the dark. There's no way I could professionally create a list like this without using my own personal biases and just imagining what could potentially happen without "aligning the stars" for any of them.

    So I have to put them all through the same process over their career. This is tougher for the goalies that already have some games of NHL experience because those first 25 games are crucial to displaying their potential, both fantasy and skill-wise, due to their team, opportunity, etc. Without getting too complicated on the minute details, here's what I feel that list would look like:

    1. Markstrom
    2. Campbell
    3. Price
    4. Bernier (7 GP)
    5. Stalock
    6. Neuvirth (22 GP)
    7. Gustavsson
    8. Varlamov
    9. Lehner
    10. Pavelec
    11. Schneider(10 GP)
    12. Greiss (19 GP)
    13. Crawford (8 GP)
    14. Enroth (1 GP)
    15. Leighton

    Again, it's totally speculative, but I looked at a few different factors, like size and stamina and durability. Feel free to ask any follow up questions after soaking this in, I'll check back a few times today.

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