Chet Pickard... REP!!
I need some quick opinions on his upside and ETA. I think he's a great prospect but I need to know what the rest of Dobbernation thinks. I've got some rep handy for good answers.
PS. Enjoy the playoffs!
Great prospect, but even the top goalie prospects need time. He's no different. I'll say another couple seasons before he gets a chance. I imagine Dekanich could even get the backup promotion first and then Pickard develops.
Obviously he has #1 goalie upside, no question there. But he'll need time and opportunity. Could be the next Cory Schneider in terms of his situation (they really like Rinne).
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Care to elaborate on how much they like Rinne? I know they have him locked in for two more years, but do you think they'll be willing and able to keep him beyond that? Pickard is my top tending prospect so I'm looking for a reason to deal him without getting anything in net back.
Amazing prospect, and he'll become a top 10 goalie in teh league, possibly even around top 5 material. He's 20 right now, but I don't see him cracking a NHL rster as the starting goaltender till he's 23 minimum. I'd say 24, so 4-5 years.
Rinne will be their goaltender till someone else beats him, meaning probably Pickard. I'm not sure how much they like Rinne, but this year he does have a relatively low salary. Next two years at 3.4M a year, isn't bad, but if they can get someone cheaper, I'm betting Rinne could be traded. But I doubt it. What I'm trying to get to, is if Pickard comes in, in a couple years, and he's the real deal, then the Preds will have no hesitation to make Pickard the starting goalie, and do something else with Rinne. Like why not? A cheaper, younger and better goalie if Pickard does come.
What I meant is that they gave Rinne a fairly high coin even if it's just a 2 year extension. They wouldn't give an extension to a guy they didn't believe would be the guy for the next 2 years (and maybe beyond). They're certainly not in a rush to move him or to make a switch. That's beneficial in a sense, because they won't rush Pickard, but in fantasy leagues that means more wait.Originally Posted by metaldude26
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Cool. Thanks again ED. I figured it would be a wait for him, just wanted to be certain.
Unless you are in a deep league with lots of room to keep developers, I don't see Pickard being much of a factor for at least 3 years. His value might improve but not to that of a starting NHL goalie. So much can happen in that time in the NHL - just look at this year alone with Howard, Niemi, Gus, Elliott, Halak. There's another Pickard just around the corner.
personally, I think that Pickard is Nashville's goalie of the future and that the future isn't that far away.
Let's look back to when the drafted Pickard; they had Ellis and Rinne already in net, yet they still chose Pickard. For an offensively challenged team like Nashville to pass up on guys like Tedenby, Eberle, Ennis, etc makes me think that they felt G was a more pressing need than a skilled F.
Now, Rinne has definitely blossomed over the past season, but with Nashville only signing him to a two year extension makes me still think that Pickard will be here sooner than later. I see another full season in the AHL next year, followed by him backing up Rinne in 2011-12. I would not be surprised if he's the man in Nashville the year after that.
just my $.02
on fantasy hockey hiatus!!!
He is their goalie of the future, one would think for reasons pointed out above, but Nashville would be well-served to give him time to develop.
I'm a numbers guy so I look at overall trends. I tend to toss out the extremes and/or outliers. Look at the goalies that performed this year and how old they were when they became "full-time" starters (which I used roughly 60 GS as the line):
1st round:
Brodeur (23)
Luongo (23)
Rask (23, next year, assuming that's his full-time start)
Fleury (22)
Price (21, and we see how this worked out)
Ward (22)
2nd round:
Howard (25)
Theodore (24)
Bryzgalov (26)
3rd round:
Quick (22, and just keeping the seat warm, one would think)
Anderson (27)
S Mason (20, and he crashed)
5th round:
Miller (26)
Kiprusoff (28)
C Mason (33)
Turco (28)
7th round:
Lundqvist (24)
Huet (34)
8th round:
Rinne (26)
9th round:
Nabokov (26)
Elliot (25, assuming he starts F/T next season)
Halak (24, assuming he starts F/T next season)
Vokoun (26)
Undrafted:
Hiller (27)
Niemi (27)
Backstrom (30)
"Successful" 1st round picks started their F/T careers around age 23. If you follow this logic, I would expect Pickard in 2012. Call him up to backup Rinne in 2011-2012, starter in 2012. Rinne's contract makes him a FA in 2012. You could also expect Bernier as a back-up next year and starting in 2011-2012. This should have been the year for Schneider but....
I know this is flawed in more than one way, but it's pretty interesting to see how goalie careers have taken shape. Point is, don't count on highly touted goalies making a contribution to a fantasy team until at least 23 years of age...and say 25-26 for "lesser" guys
Personally, I'm just going on gut feel with my Pickard timeline projection; other than my own opinion I have nothing to base it on.
Overall, for a goalie to reach the NHL and become a successful starter, there are a lot of things that need to go his way. Some goalies get fast tracked to the NHL, only to have their careers destroyed as they aren't fully prepared for the rigors of the NHL; Jim Carrey and Andrew Raycroft shone as rookies...were are they now?
New Jersey has drafted a few goalies over the years; only Mike Dunham had a semi-serious NHL career. Get drafted as a G by New Jersey recently would have been the same as being a SS drafted by the Orioles during Cal Ripken's tenure...you knew you were goiing to be a career minor leaguer.
Jon Quick is a great example who beat the odds to make it; I dont think anyone thought that he would be in this position even three years ago. LA had a bunch of G in front of him, except that the all fumbled their opportunities to be the starter; only problem for Quick is this kid named Bernier....
Let's not even mention guys like Corey Hirsch, Dan Blackburn, Jamie Storr, Eric Fichaud; highly touted players that never got close...
Bottom line is, you can never have too many G prospects.
just my $.02
on fantasy hockey hiatus!!!
Isn't Raycroft playing in Vancouver? Kidding!!!!
Awesome posts HIL!
if by opening the bench gate for the players coming off the ice is your definition of playing in the NHL, then yes he is!!
Granted, he does have one of the best seats in the house AND is getting paid to watch the games; what's not to like about that gig???
on fantasy hockey hiatus!!!
Paid by two teams is the best part!!!!
I curse the need for goalies in fantasy hockey.
You are so right HIL that you can't have enough goalie prospects because of the nature of the beast - but league structure will screw you up. However, your posts in this thread have certainly given me something to ponder in one of my keeper leagues where I struggle in goal. Thanks for that.
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