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Thread: Filatov vs Tavares

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    I\'ve seen this issue come up in a few threads and wanted to focus it a bit. From all the hype I thought it was Tavares no question, especially considering Filatov needs to bulk up quite a bit to be taken seriously in the NHL and Columbus is a death trap for offensive prospects.

    Who would you take and why?
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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    I would take Filatov simply because he will have the better supporting cast around him.

    If Tavares ends up with the Isle he will be the main focus of that team.

    Filatov can fly under the rader for a bit before he explodes offensively.

    As much as hitch trys to smoother his offensive stars they will find a way to produce (EX a hattrick with only 8 minutes of ice time)

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    hmm... i love filatov, but i think i\'ll have to side with tavares here, and its not that hard of a decision.

    isles, avs, lightning, thrashers, yotes... all have supporting players to take the heat off. the isles, with their young and easy going dressing room with a coach known for developing players may just be the best fit possible, as hard as that is to believe.

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    Dobber if you see this, wouldnt this make a great poll question???

    I dont think you can lose with either player. I just think Filatov in a points only league will produce more.

    If you throw H2H yahoo stats I think Tavares will get more PIM, PPP

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    Ya this is an interesting dilemma. I definitly see Tavares with more Pims. But as ultrawhite brought up that loosey goosey dressing room that the Isles have could really foster some great growth and development for Tavares to become a star!

    Filatov on the other hand... I think he has better goal scoring ability and wheels, but has a dressing room whos respect he has to earn first unlike Tavares who can just walk in and be the man.

    Filatov max peak? 45-55 ---Tavares 40-65 ?

    just putting that out there. lol
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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    I think a coin may be the best means of determining this one. Okay, so you grab a coin, assign each guy a side, and then you flip it in the air. Whichever side lands facing upward, that\'s the guy you take.

    Seriously these two are monsters, this is like trying to decide who was gonna be better before they got into the league, Crosby or Ovechkin, no one knew, hell I don\'t think we\'ll know til its all said and done.

    Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but me, I won\'t be swayed either way.
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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    I drafted Filatov in my dynasty league, and look forward to watching him develop for many years. However, five teams (six if you include the Isles trading down to draft Bailey) passed on him last year. That is quite a few scouts/GM\'s that pull NHL paycheques. Certainly, draft position is not everything, but at this point it should mean a hell of a lot, especially considering how little has changed - its not like Filatov is running for the Calder this year. Of course, I am assuming that Tavaras is drafted near the top, but if you had to hitch your horse to a cart, I do not understand why it would not be him at this point.

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    I was curious and looked up first overall forwards the year after they were drafted, and 6th overall forwards two years after being drafted (so they could be a rookie or second year player). I just checked the drafts between 1990 and 2007. Regular season only. First overalls have 388 points in 654 GP (9 players)*. Sixth overalls have 104 points in 290 GP (11 players).

    Note that I did not include AO(\'04)and Michalek(\'03) due to the lockout year.

    Interesting - only 4 6th overall players played over 20 NHL games two years after they were drafted. All had played in the NHL the year before. 3 of the 4 were Oilers at the time.


    *edit: Oops, Make that 388 in 654 for first overalls. I included Lindros by mistake.

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    eyemissgilmour wrote:
    You can\'t take his draft position at face value because his draft position was in the real world, and we are talking about who is better in the fantasy world.
    Unfortunately, there isn\'t much else to go on at this point besides draft position. It is impossible to compare each player\'s stats based on the leagues that they have played in so far. If you go back and look at draft position and the proability of reaching important fantasy threshholds, such as being a PPG player there are striking differences between those drafted in the top 5 compared to those drafted after that.

    For example, ~40% of forwards drafted in the top 5 since 1990 have gone on to achieve atleast 1 PPG season or greater (40 games or more), whereas those drafted from 6-10 have had an ~8% success rate of reaching that milestone. The fantasy proof is in the fantasy pudding.

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    As much as I love Filatov and have always from the start felt he had a higher point upside than Stamkos, I think you have to go with Tavares. Filatov is in a crappy situation right now in Columbus.

    I was so mad when the Leafs passed on him for Schenn. The Leafs needed a big time scorer like Filatov and they already have tons of D.

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    eyemissgilmour wrote:
    If you insist on using draft \"position\" you need to make a logical adjustment for Filatov. His draft year was an anomaly. Prior to last year, how many times since 1980 do you think 4 d-men were taken in the top 5 ? Exactly zero times.
    From a fantasy perspective, Filatov was the \"2nd forward taken\" in the last draft, not the \"6th overall player\" taken. It\'s an important distinction.
    Exactly. From a fantasy prospective Filatov was the 2nd player taken overall in last years draft. You can\'t use draft positions from previous years to determine anything.

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    Think I should drop Alexandre Daigle in my keeper pool for Paul Kariya? I\'m a little iffy because of Daigle\'s draft position. Okay, extreme and probably stupid example, but that\'s what comes to mind when I think of draft position playing a factor in fantasy prospect analysis.
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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    Karma metaldude!
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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    Anyone but me that sees Tavares\' skating deficiency as a problem in the NHL? Also, what about his sluggishness in games close together? How\'s his conditioning?

    The guy can score goals in loads and loads. So can Filatov. I\'d also argue that Filatov is a more complete offensive player. He\'s as good of a playmaker as he is a goalscorer and he creates a bunch of stuff as well, being a more dynamic player. I think of Tavares as a guy like Heatley. He simply knows how to score, but might not be that great in other fascets of the game. Now, being compared to Heatley isn\'t exactly bad, right?

    These two guys are neck and neck, but I\'m going with the more dynamic player.
    GO WINGS!

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    Default Filatov vs Tavares

    Hi Eyemiss an tryhard. Regardless of the position of the players picked before him, he still fell to sixth and I find that just does not tend to happen with the very high end forward prospects. Not to say that he can’t be better than all of them, but it is actually fairly bold to claim that he will be better than JT (again, I am assuming he goes first) or Stamkos at this point unless you know more than I do, which is entirely possible.

    I agree that draft position is not everything, but at this early stage it should be treated as a very significant marker for success unless you feel that Filatov’s development has ramped up significantly since last year. It is interesting to me how quickly this seems to get dismissed. Looking back a year from now should change things, and certainly looking back 10 years from now you should probably have a pretty good idea who the better producer was like your Daigle/Kariya example.

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