Nichushkin projections

[ericdaoust]

Well the evidence points strongly in that direction as Dallas protected him in the expansion draft and multiple articles saying this is a very likely going to happen. Seems a pretty reasonable conclusion to me.

He got 34 pts in his rookie season so 45 points would be his floor in my opinion after 2 years playing in the KHL. Kid is only 22 years old so lots of time to still improve. He has the size and skills so mostly needs to develop the mental side.

Seems like you came here with an outcome in mind and you're ignoring the feedback.

I agree with most of the things said in this thread - talent is there and there might be value if he finds chemistry early but this is a total dart at the wall. You pointed out his rookie year but he also has a 29-point season under his belt which should not be ignored.

[tentacles]

Agree with a lot of your points rataylor. However, biggest thing Nich has going for him is that he was picked 10th overall in 2013. Jim Nill was the GM that picked him and is still there so this is a huge reason why he will be given every opportunity to prove he was worthy of being picked so high. Big part of being successful in the NHL is just getting the chance to play in plum spots and get the ice time with good linemates and some power play time. Can't see them at least giving him quite a few games playing with at least one of the top 3 and some power play time to see if he can show them something. Most teams prefer to have more balanced scoring lines if possible. It's also not like their current second liners Janmark and Shore can't easily be supplanted by Nich. And don't see any prospects in the system at forward who come even close. He is definitely not lighting it up in the KHL, but it is not a high scoring league for the most part so sometimes tough to judge. All I am saying is that he has a very good chance to make some noise and I will not be surprised at all if he makes some noise in the NHL starting next year.

A big part of a GM's legacy is his drafting record especially in the first round. It can make or break a GM's job. If Nich is a bust the blame is all on Nill.

[tentacles]

I appreciate the feedback and agree that 60 points may be too high. As for dart on the wall I would not agree with. He has a much better chance than that. The 2nd year he had hip surgery and had a falling out with the coach. Not good signs for sure, but not a deal breaker.

Lots of players break out around year 4 and that is where Nich will essentially be when he comes back. If he looks bad in the first year then I would definitely concede then that he may be a big bust. My point is he still has some pretty good potential that should not be forgotten.

[rataylor22]

I don't see any scenario where Nichu supplants Janmark. Janmark is simply a far better player at this point of their respective careers.

I would assume your opinion is tinted by some sort of bias, which is fine, but counter to your argument of him being a 2013 first round selection, Dallas also has Jason Robertson, Jason Dickinson, Riley Tufte, and Denis Gurianov, all of which were first round forward selections by Jim Nill, and Brett Ritchie and Roope Hintz, both of which were second round selections by Jim Nill, and none of them "took their ball and went home" when they didn't get their way. Now you might think Nichu is better than those players, but we have no idea what the coaching staff and organization thinks.

As for it being a low scoring league, that's why I used his NHLe, not his KHL point production. I won't be surprised if he makes some noise next year. I won't be surprised if he's in the KHL next year. I don't think there's a "very good chance" of him doing anything in the NHL next year at this point.

[Eskimo Brother]

Remi Elie is another name I'll toss in there that isn't getting much opportunity. I think Nichu is going to have to earn his way back up the lineup.

[tentacles]

Fair enough. Guess we will find out early next year. Maybe the Olympics might give a better idea. Would love to see him play.

Probably is some bias, but a lot of things point in there being a decent chance he becomes fantasy relevent as soon as next year.

I would be very surprised if he does not come back next year. All we can go by is from what has been said in the news and from that I believe he is 90% coming back next year. Just my opinion of course which means squat, but I have been watching hockey my whole life so believe I have pretty good idea how this thing works.

[Belexus75]

To me he is closer to ?almost for sure? a bust than ?almost for sure? a 30/30 NHLer

[Mr. Guru]

I would be surprised if he's not in the NHL next year.

Id bet money he starts in Dallas.

Pencil him in for 40ish points.

As for prodigal Star Valeri Nichushkin, Nill gives the impression that his return is a matter of when, not if:

...[T]he Stars “plan” on Valeri Nichushkin returning from the KHL next season. “We never looked at what happened as Dallas versus him. He was a young player, growing up and we told him going back might be the best thing for you. He’s played a lot, and might be on their Olympic team. We’ve had conversation and it appears we are heading to a return. He wants to come back.”

If I remember correctly it was a Nichushkin vs Ruff thing. Val signed a 2 year deal. Ruff is out. 2 year deal expiring. Welcome back to the NHL kid.

[JHouly]

really don't see him coming back in the NHL anytime soon...

he is not even dominating in the KHL...

If he comes back and that's a really big if I think he is a 35-40 points player.

[stevegamer]

The only forward they exposed who you could make a reasonable argument for keeping was Cody Eakin, who's currently making $3.85 million on Vegas's third line, for 3 more years. I'd wager it's a reasonable assumption that's a contract they were probably happy to shed.

The only thing protecting him tells us is that he's a more valuable asset than Cody Eakin. That's...reasonable. Vegas also traded for Nikita Gusev, which doesn't give us strong evidence that he's coming to the NHL, just that he has some amount of value.

As for his upside, I'd have a hard time saying someone who has a career high of 34 points in the NHL and is currently scoring at an NHLe of 32 points in the KHL with no discernible top 6 hole in Dallas has a floor of 45 points. I would say his floor is somewhere around 20-25 points, and his ceiling for his first year back is probably somewhere in the 40-50 point range depending on what usage he earns. It's not like he's going to be handed a plum assignment and usage just because he decided to come back. I don't have any idea why he'd be given a role with Seguin, Benn, or Radulov off the hop just because. I'd assume his ultimate upside is still around 60-65 points, but a lot of things would have to go right that so far haven't gone right for him to meet that.

This makes a lot of sense. However, I have a question about the bolded part, the NHL scoring equivalency. Where did you get that info?

[Jouko-Pouko]

I probably should have clarified that my comments about Nichushkin were coming from watching a bunch of his KHL games this season, not just checking the stats. His team (CSKA Moscow) is a high-scoring team (2nd in the league in goals for), and Nichushkin is getting a lot of ice-time (16:22 per game) there but he just isn't creating a lot of offensive chances for himself or his teammates. His defensive game has improved a lot and he's a regular penalty-killer for his team but they're not relying on him to provide offense. When it comes to the Olympics, I guess Nichushkin could make the team but that would probably mean he's playing a limited role (4th line and PK duties).

To me, Nichushkin lacks that dynamic element that would make him a constant scoring threat. I just don't see how he could suddenly jump to become an offensive force in the NHL when he can't even do that in the KHL. He could be a complementary top-six player but I wouldn't expect big numbers even then.

Nichushkin plays on the same team as Kirill Kaprizov who is two years younger but clearly a much more dynamic offensive player and it's not even close between the two of them.

[tentacles]

Thanks Jouko-Pouko, there is nothing better than actually watching the player play. I would give most weight to what you said about him in comparison to Kaprizov.

Hopefully he does play in the Olympics so I can watch first hand.

BTW how do you watch the KHL games?

[Jouko-Pouko]

Thanks Jouko-Pouko, there is nothing better than actually watching the player play. I would give most weight to what you said about him in comparison to Kaprizov.

Hopefully he does play in the Olympics so I can watch first hand.

BTW how do you watch the KHL games?

I live in Finland and I pay for a package that includes the NHL, KHL and NFL (and some soccer leagues as well but I don't watch that garbage).

EDIT: Many KHL games have a Finnish play-by-play, so I watch those ones mostly as I don't understand any Russian.

[Bazz]

He's useless until he actually does something.

[ericdaoust]

He's useless until he actually does something.