Benn vs. Marchand - who ya got?

[RizzeeDizzee]

It's an age old question in fantasy - do you go with the more proven entity who has an arguably higher floor, or the upstart player with perhaps a higher ceiling? In this case, the proven entity is Benn, the Art Ross winner in 2014-15 and 89 point scorer in 2015-16, and the upstart is Marchand, who, at 28, rose to 85 points last season and has been flirting with a 100 point scoring pace for 2017-18 thus far.

This week's cage match (http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...ed-jamie-benn/) covers these two, and I'll be very curious to get your thoughts on my conclusions and how I reached them. Do we need to put Benn a notch below where he was just two seasons ago, whether due to his playing style catching up with him, a less offensively friendly coach, or a heavier focus on Seguin? Is Marchand truly a top NHL star,;and can we have faith in a player who hit 85+ points at age 28 being able to keep up that pace in years to come?

Whom do you favor, now and in the years to come, and why?

[LeafsFan1967]

It's an age old question in fantasy - do you go with the more proven entity who has an arguably higher floor, or the upstart player with perhaps a higher ceiling? In this case, the proven entity is Benn, the Art Ross winner in 2014-15 and 89 point scorer in 2015-16, and the upstart is Marchand, who, at 28, rose to 85 points last season and has been flirting with a 100 point scoring pace for 2017-18 thus far.

This week's cage match (http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...ed-jamie-benn/) covers these two, and I'll be very curious to get your thoughts on my conclusions and how I reached them. Do we need to put Benn a notch below where he was just two seasons ago, whether due to his playing style catching up with him, a less offensively friendly coach, or a heavier focus on Seguin? Is Marchand truly a top NHL star,;and can we have faith in a player who hit 85+ points at age 28 being able to keep up that pace in years to come?

Whom do you favor, now and in the years to come, and why?

I've noticed that Benn's hit totals have gone up again this year vs 16/17, and he's on a 77 pt pace vs getting 69 pts last year. He's 14 months younger than Marchand, and seems to be over the injury concerns he had previously. I don't have the exact timeline, but I think he's better than his 69 pt showing from last year, and not quite as good as his 89 pt showing from 15/16. Seguin is seeing a little more ice time, but Benn is still a focal point and seems to produce no matter who he plays with. Getting exposure to Seguin, Radulov and Klingberg is definitely beneficial though. Just as comparable big bodied forward, Getzlaf is still effective, and is more than 4 years older than Benn, so I don't see Benn falling off a cliff any time soon. I guess Getzlaf plays more of a finesse game, and Benn hits more/has better speed, but it's not like Getzlaf doesn't grind some too. I don't really follow Marchand closely, and just recently started watching Dallas since I picked up Benn, but I don't see there being a significant difference between them moving forward. Marchand has been better last year/this year so far, but Benn could close the gap I think. Benn has a longer track record of higher point outputs, but Marchand is obviously a late bloomer. He has pts in 24/34 (.705% of games this year), whereas Benn has pts in 31/46 (0.673% of games), so both are consistently involved in the offence, Marchand just a bit more.

[Wonko]

Good analysis. Two great players to pit together. I am going to hedge and still say Benn holds more value in leagues that include hits and especially leagues that include face off wins, but they are pretty much a wash in straight points leagues.

[LeafsFan1967]

Good analysis. Two great players to pit together. I am going to hedge and still say Benn holds more value in leagues that include hits and especially leagues that include face off wins, but they are pretty much a wash in straight points leagues.

My league doesn't have hits, pims, shots on goal, faceoffs, and it's more goal weighted. So you say Benn in multi-cat, a wash in straight points, but what about in my format?

[Wonko]

My league doesn't have hits, pims, shots on goal, faceoffs, and it's more goal weighted. So you say Benn in multi-cat, a wash in straight points, but what about in my format?

Damn. I must admit to having a bit of a bias favouring Benn and against Marchand. No fancy stats. Just the fact that Marchand only has a year and a half of elite production vs Benn's multiple years of exceptional play. Marchand finally being invited to the #1 PP party obviously is going to make a big difference, but I can't shake the feeling that Marchand could easily fall back to a mid 60's type player, especially if he loses some of his line mates (Bergeron, Pasta) or his prime opportunity. On the other hand, I think Benn can produce mid 70's type production with an 80 + ceiling with any line mates. The Hitchcock effect is a concern of course, but has been a red herring so far with Sequin, Benn and Radulov all on pace for mid to high 70's type production. Not to mention Klingberg leading all D men in league scoring. Thus, it would appear Benn and the rest of of the Dallas squad are still going to be hitting the score sheet with accustomed regularity under the new system.

So.

Marchand has been scoring a titch more than Benn over the last few season and your league is weighted goal heavy. Thus, I might grudgingly give the edge to Marchand in your league but I think Marchand also come with more risk and definitely has the lower floor. If it were me? I would still take the consistency of Benn. As well I think Benn's name carries more trade value. Just my two bits. Hehe.

[LeafsFan1967]

Damn. I must admit to having a bit of a bias favouring Benn and against Marchand. No fancy stats. Just the fact that Marchand only has a year and a half of elite production vs Benn's multiple years of exceptional play. Marchand finally being invited to the #1 PP party obviously is going to make a big difference, but I can't shake the feeling that Marchand could easily fall back to a mid 60's type player, especially if he loses some of his line mates (Bergeron, Pasta) or his prime opportunity. On the other hand, I think Benn can produce mid 70's type production with an 80 + ceiling with any line mates. The Hitchcock effect is a concern of course, but has been a red herring so far with Sequin, Benn and Radulov all on pace for mid to high 70's type production. Not to mention Klingberg leading all D men in league scoring. Thus, it would appear Benn and the rest of of the Dallas squad are still going to be hitting the score sheet with accustomed regularity under the new system.

So.

Marchand has been scoring a titch more than Benn over the last few season and your league is weighted goal heavy. Thus, I might grudgingly give the edge to Marchand in your league but I think Marchand also come with more risk and definitely has the lower floor. I would still take the consistency of Benn myself. Just my two bits. Hehe.

I agree with all of your points, except Marchand only outscored Benn last season, and this season so far (on a points per game basis), since he's played less games. I'm still happy to own Benn!

[Wonko]

I agree with all of your points, except Marchand only outscored Benn last season, and this season so far (on a points per game basis), since he's played less games. I'm still happy to own Benn!

I was referring to 'goal scoring'

[LeafsFan1967]

I was referring to 'goal scoring'

Oh sorry, my bad haha. I just find it funny when people act like Benn is falling off, haha.

[Leafs&G86]

Have marchand but would take benn.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Thanks to everyone for the feedback. I think the consensus is this is now close enough to be league-specific or to come down to cost to get each player.

People still seem more skeptical about Marchand than I thought they might be though, particularly with Bruce Cassidy as coach (combining this season's stats with the 30 points in 25 games after Cassidy took over last season, Marchand has now scored 73 points in 60 games under Cassidy!) and the player comparable examples I dug up.

[BreadManPanarin]

I would not trade my Marchand straight up for Benn. He's just a point scoring machine for the past two seasons with no signs of slowing down. Crazy

[Seeds of Grapes]

I would not trade my Marchand straight up for Benn. He's just a point scoring machine for the past two seasons with no signs of slowing down. Crazy

I traded for Marchand this year, and I fully agree. I would not trade him straight up for Benn.

[LeafsFan1967]

When Benn has another 80+ pt season, more people will jump back on the bandwagon, lol. He's on pace for 77 pts, not like he's washed up.

[Seeds of Grapes]

When Benn has another 80+ pt season, more people will jump back on the bandwagon, lol. He's on pace for 77 pts, not like he's washed up.

Not saying Benn is washed up. He is a great player! At this point, though, I think Marchand has surpassed him.

[LeafsFan1967]

Not saying Benn is washed up. He is a great player! At this point, though, I think Marchand has surpassed him.

Not you specifically, just mean in general. The year before last he had 89 pts, then dropped last year, and he's bounced back this year. I just believe in Benn's track record.