salary cap projections?

[jordandev]

Can we start a new thread to discuss salary cap projections for current RFA / UFAs?

To start with a few off my roster guys:

• Elias Lindholm - 3-4 mil 2 year bridge deal
• Oliver Bjorkstrand - same as Lindholm
• Evander Kane - 6-7 mil 1 mil deal
• Nick Ritchie - no clue. 2-3 mil bridge?
• Darnell Nurse - I think he gets paid now. longer term at 5 million?

Anyone have any better insights to these guys?

[Eskimo Brother]

I have actually been getting on to this topic on my own time, and starting to cover some of my thoughts in my articles over the last two weeks (plus another one out tomorrow). You can find those through the link in my signature.

Kane is covered in the articles, so here's projections on the rest from my prediction model (still a big work in progress):

Nurse - $4,120,753 x 4yrs
Bjorkstrand - $3,141,824 x 3yrs
Ritchie - $2,645,243 x 3yrs
Lindholm - $4,396,003 x 4yrs

So all similar range. I would expect $4M to be the minimum for Nurse, and Lindholm I see locking in a longer term deal after already having done the bridge deal. I would bump his projection up to $4.75 x 5yrs.

[jordandev]

Yeah, those articles were awesome, somehow missed them the first time, thanks. I love the idea of building a projection model for this.

Those weren't too far off my wild guesses at least.

Will look forward to more of those articles.

[Eskimo Brother]

No problem. Looking into the bridge deal model in tomorrows, so that's probably the most relevant.

As far as the accuracy, it's not an easy thing to build. Constantly updating, and needs a lot more hours, but it's a nice skeleton for now.

[Eskimo Brother]

Scratch that initial on Lindholm. Messed up the input for him. Projected for an eight year contract, almost dead on 5M a year.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I have actually been getting on to this topic on my own time, and starting to cover some of my thoughts in my articles over the last two weeks (plus another one out tomorrow). You can find those through the link in my signature.

Kane is covered in the articles, so here's projections on the rest from my prediction model (still a big work in progress):

Nurse - $4,120,753 x 4yrs
Bjorkstrand - $3,141,824 x 3yrs
Ritchie - $2,645,243 x 3yrs
Lindholm - $4,396,003 x 4yrs

So all similar range. I would expect $4M to be the minimum for Nurse, and Lindholm I see locking in a longer term deal after already having done the bridge deal. I would bump his projection up to $4.75 x 5yrs.

Absolutely loved those articles (the 3rd one is open on my browser but haven't read it yet) but a 4 year deal wouldn't make much sense for the Oilers with Nurse as it would take him straight to UFA. Maybe that's something you can add to your prediction model?

[Shift Disturber]

I really enjoy reading these articles - terrific work. But, I can't see any GM (whose initials are not PC) giving Kane a $7.7M x 8-year deal. We all know, right here and now, that this deal would be a terrible anchor for any team. Hoping that Treliving reads this...

[Eskimo Brother]

Absolutely loved those articles (the 3rd one is open on my browser but haven't read it yet) but a 4 year deal wouldn't make much sense for the Oilers with Nurse as it would take him straight to UFA. Maybe that's something you can add to your prediction model?

Yeah, I haven't gotten to the point of being that nitpicky with my predictions yet. At this point, if I'm within a year, I'm happy.

You are right though, they are likely to either go three years, or long term. Long term probably being the prefered option for the Oil.

[Eskimo Brother]

I really enjoy reading these articles - terrific work. But, I can't see any GM (whose initials are not PC) giving Kane a $7.7M x 8-year deal. We all know, right here and now, that this deal would be a terrible anchor for any team. Hoping that Treliving reads this...

I agree, and not having the article in front of me, I don't remember exactly what I said about it. However, the gist of this prediction, is saying that Kane will be getting term and money. He's highly unlikely to take less than five years, and will not be taking a pay cut on his current 6M paycheck. So that leaves us at least with 6yrs x 7M. Additionally, in a thin FA year past Tavares, Kane will have quite a few teams bidding on him.

[stevegamer]

I agree, and not having the article in front of me, I don't remember exactly what I said about it. However, the gist of this prediction, is saying that Kane will be getting term and money. He's highly unlikely to take less than five years, and will not be taking a pay cut on his current 6M paycheck. So that leaves us at least with 6yrs x 7M. Additionally, in a thin FA year past Tavares, Kane will have quite a few teams bidding on him.

And we're all hoping that our favorite team doesn't sign him to a long term big dollar contract.

Regarding projections, you might find some useful methodologies examing how various people project baseball free agent contracts. My reasoning is:

1. That it's been done for the longest of any of the major sports.
2. Baseball has a fairly mature statistical (sabermetric) bunch of data.
3, Free agent season in baseball is literally right now, and some think the market is behaving weirdly. Others think it's the low quality of the available players.

[Eskimo Brother]

And we're all hoping that our favorite team doesn't sign him to a long term big dollar contract.

Regarding projections, you might find some useful methodologies examing how various people project baseball free agent contracts. My reasoning is:

1. That it's been done for the longest of any of the major sports.
2. Baseball has a fairly mature statistical (sabermetric) bunch of data.
3, Free agent season in baseball is literally right now, and some think the market is behaving weirdly. Others think it's the low quality of the available players.

Honestly I haven't looked all that much into projections done by others and different techniques/methodologies. I think the reason for that is jumping into this, I wouldn't have even known what questions to ask, where the pitfalls are, and all that, if I was going to start with research. So I'm starting with a blank slate, doing my own thing to start, and once I actually have a format, I might seek some other opinions/ideas. It also gives me a fresh perspective, in case those that have tried it before collaborated, leading to the same holes in their projections.
Would not have really crossed my mind to look into other sports though, so I will definitely keep that on the back burner. Thanks!

[masterjeff]

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