Mat Barzal

[Jouko-Pouko]

Yes, he does look Ben Johnson good.

He was Canada's best player, but by no means was it a dominant performance, against kids his age, not men. He didn't carry team Canada to Gold by himself or set the tournament on fire with like 15 goals.

First rounder or not, I just can't remember the last time a player had a decent but not dominant Junior career (we're not talking approaching records or breaking any here), an okay overager season (in which it is common for 19 and 20 year olds to post like 100+ points and never sniff the NHL) and is basically tied with Sidney Crosby in scoring.

Good player or good prospect or not, this is nuts.

His junior numbers suggest he would become a 70-75 point player in the NHL, so I would call them very good. He had a bunch of injuries, though, so that probably affected his junior numbers which could have been even better if he stayed healthy. And also, if Barzal had played ~70 games scoring at his pace, his numbers would "look" much better, and that's why you need to use point-per-game averages.

And Barzal never played an overage season in junior. He spent 4 years playing in junior which is the normal amount. This was the first season he was eligible to play in the AHL.

[rataylor22]

Since a disproportionately high number of 19 and 20 year-olds regularly accomplish the feat at that level due to their physical maturity as compared to their competition (which averages about 17.5 years of age).


I am not saying Barzal shouldn't be good at the NHL level, but we are talking about someone who in his rookie season is 7 pts from 2nd in league scoring (Art Ross territory) after never having totally dominated play at his level. He has never dominated play at any level, but in his first year, he is dominating the best league in Hockey. I don't know how anyone cannot help but be mystified by this. It's crazy. I am very happy for him, but it is bewildering.

Is that based off counting stats or repeated live viewings? I'd find it interesting that someone located in Ontario managed to find opportunities to regularly tune into Seattle Thunderbirds games.

[agentzero]

His junior numbers suggest he would become a 70-75 point player in the NHL, so I would call them very good. He had a bunch of injuries, though, so that probably affected his junior numbers which could have been even better if he stayed healthy. And also, if Barzal had played ~70 games scoring at his pace, his numbers would "look" much better, and that's why you need to use point-per-game averages.

And Barzal never played an overage season in junior. He spent 4 years playing in junior which is the normal amount. This was the first season he was eligible to play in the AHL.

By overage I suppose I meant post-draft year. Bad terminology. You make a good point about the injuries. They could camouflage a lot.

Even if he was projected to become a 70 pt player, the fact that he has become that in his first season after what he's shown to this point so far (again, it's not like he embarrassed the competition at each level) is surprising. It has to be. He's not Sidney Crosby, or John Tavares... but he's playing like it, with little sign of slowing down. Just saying I'm wickedly surprised, as most would be. I find it unreal.

[Jouko-Pouko]

By overage I suppose I meant post-draft year. Bad terminology. You make a good point about the injuries. They could camouflage a lot.

Even if he was projected to become a 70 pt player, the fact that he has become that in his first season after what he's shown to this point so far (again, it's not like he embarrassed the competition at each level) is surprising. It has to be. He's not Sidney Crosby, or John Tavares... but he's playing like it, with little sign of slowing down. Just saying I'm wickedly surprised, as most would be. I find it unreal.

Boeser's numbers weren't any better than Barzal's, so it's not like he's the only one. Young players peak earlier than they used to because they start professional type training at a younger age. Even if they score 70 points during their first season at age 20 doesn't mean they continue to go up from there.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not suggesting it's all downhill from now - just saying that their offensive numbers may not go up from where they are at 20.

[agentzero]

Boeser's numbers weren't any better than Barzal's, so it's not like he's the only one. Young players peak earlier than they used to because they start professional type training at a younger age. Even if they score 70 points during their first season at age 20 doesn't mean they continue to go up from there.

You are right on both counts and I remain surprised on both counts as well, in terms of results at the pro level. Though on Boeser I would say his numbers tell a different story, since US college hockey is a different league altogether, with older players generally and the competition varies a tonne from division to division. He certainly put up impressive totals given those factors. Even with all that, I don't think anyone expected him to score 40 goals in his opening season. If they did, there would have been a heck of a lot more hype in his draft year. Laine or Ovechkin level hype...

[agentzero]

Is that based off counting stats or repeated live viewings? I'd find it interesting that someone located in Ontario managed to find opportunities to regularly tune into Seattle Thunderbirds games.

I am a season ticket holder.

[rataylor22]

I am a season ticket holder.

Cross country commitment.

[Godin]

Confidence is an amazing thing. He may have just discovered it.

[HonkyTonkMan]

As soon as Barzal inevitably regresses this thread is going to be pretty funny, topped off by that guy who questioned if he was as good as Eichel...

agreed.

[lucafen4]

I am a season ticket holder.

To Thunderbirds games? Cuz last year game after game, Barzal was absolutely dominant every time on the ice. Scoring totals be damned... I'd love to see puck possession numbers when he was on the ice because it was rare he or his team didn't have it.

[agentzero]

To Thunderbirds games? Cuz last year game after game, Barzal was absolutely dominant every time on the ice. Scoring totals be damned... I'd love to see puck possession numbers when he was on the ice because it was rare he or his team didn't have it.

No lol.

It's hardly the first example of a player coming out of what look like decent junior performances to do very well in the NHL. Even Carey Price's junior numbers aren't what they would be if he had been the starter for the London Knights.. Everything has its context.. but from the games I saw him play, he was consistently among the better players in his age group and competition level, but even those types of talents can take quite a bit of time to make an NHL impact, not the least of which is Price, who struggled at times early on and spent time in the AHL to refine his game. This Barzal horse came out of the gate screaming and I've watched maybe 10 Islanders games this season and he's looked like another planet; heads and tails faster than everyone on the ice. It's either steroids or somehow, his body had itself a ridiculous summer. I<m talking Athanasiou fast with great hands. That's a McDavid level combination and Lord knows he wasn't supposed to be that good. That's all. Like, holy shit Barzal, slow down already. But it looks like he can't. Unreal.

[rataylor22]

No lol.

It's hardly the first example of a player coming out of what look like decent junior performances to do very well in the NHL. Even Carey Price's junior numbers aren't what they would be if he had been the starter for the London Knights.. Everything has its context.. but from the games I saw him play, he was consistently among the better players in his age group and competition level, but even those types of talents can take quite a bit of time to make an NHL impact, not the least of which is Price, who struggled at times early on and spent time in the AHL to refine his game. This Barzal horse came out of the gate screaming and I've watched maybe 10 Islanders games this season and he's looked like another planet; heads and tails faster than everyone on the ice. It's either steroids or somehow, his body had itself a ridiculous summer. I<m talking Athanasiou fast with great hands. That's a McDavid level combination and Lord knows he wasn't supposed to be that good. That's all. Like, holy shit Barzal, slow down already. But it looks like he can't. Unreal.

So a player you never saw play live in junior didn't look dominant in junior. Got it.

[agentzero]

So a player you never saw play live in junior didn't look dominant in junior. Got it.

You are a positive and well-intentioned peach of a human being.

Conversely, had I said, in order to contribute anything of value to these fantasy hockey forums, one must have seen all players play live ever? If so, close the forums, because even pro scouts to GMs, whose entire jobs depend on watching hockey, cannot do that and yet must make assessments on limited information.

Got it.

[rataylor22]

You are a positive and well-intentioned peach of a human being.

Conversely, had I said, in order to contribute anything of value to these fantasy hockey forums, one must have seen all players play live ever? If so, close the forums, because even pro scouts to GMs, whose entire jobs depend on watching hockey, cannot do that and yet must make assessments on limited information.

Got it.

I wouldn't ever expect that. I would expect someone who could so confidently and definitively comment on in-game performance of a specific player, and by extension, commenting on illegal performance enhancing substances related to said player, to be relying on more than box scores to form that opinion.

[agentzero]

I wouldn't ever expect that. I would expect someone who could so confidently and definitively comment on in-game performance of a specific player, and by extension, commenting on illegal performance enhancing substances related to said player, to be relying on more than box scores to form that opinion.

Right, because that's what I did......

I had more questions than answers and I certainly made no definitive statements. The steroids thing, I mean if you can't read humour, boy... I've seen 10-12 pro NHL games, last year's training camp and about 12 junior games, including all his WJC games. I have an idea of what I saw and I certainly did not see Sidney Crosby, except that I see Sidney Crosby NHL numbers and even McDavid NHL game, so yeah, it is surprising and unusual. That was it. The rest, you added yourself.