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Thread: Guessin' Succession

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Guessin' Succession

    Thanks for the feedback all. I'm adding my sig for your reference.

    I have Ilya Samsonov on my prospect roster until he's 22. I'm not sure he'll even be in the NHL by then (Feb 2019) so I'm looking at other options. Rask is a fine goalie, just not confident the Bruins will be as good in front of him going forward.

    I understand the Darling example - getting proven backups fairly cheap and seeing if they can be the next Kipprusov. That's what I'm looking to do - hit a home run with the new goalie and also get something of value for Rask. And if not, Rask is still a quality #2 for the time being.
    Keeper 16 of 25 - 11F 6D 2G active 6 bench -- 7 team league -- G, A, SHG, Wx2, SO, OTL

    F - Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Namestikov, Kopitar, Laine, Pastrnak, Voracek, JVR, Oshie, E Kane
    D - Karlsson, Barrie, Shattenkirk, Pietrangelo, Keith, Werenski
    G - Holtby, Rask

    Bench - F Perry, D Trouba, Ekholm, Niskanen, Scheifele; G Smith

  2. #17
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    Default Re: Guessin' Succession

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    Honestly, I think $6M for 1 year for Lehner is too much. Maybe even far too much. He basically has half a season to prove he's worth more than a backup level goalie contract.
    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    He has done nothing to earn $6M. Hell, I dont think he's worth the $4M he's getting paid this year.
    Lehner has been an above average goalie during his time in Buffalo. His GAA isn't great but that's mostly because of how horrible Buffalo's defense has been. His SV% is good but not great:
    2017-2018: 15th best SV% (goalies with at least 20GP)
    2016-2017: 8th best SV% (goalies with at least 40GP)
    2015-2016: 5th best SV% (although Lehner only played 21 games that season)

    If you get a goalie who is ~10th best in the league for $6M on a short-term contract, is it all that bad? I'm not really sure where the Lehner hatred is coming from. He's not an elite goalie but elite goalies these days cost about $10M. If you get even a league average goalie for about half that, then I think that should be considered decent value.

    Last season, he played 59 games and his SV% was above guys like Talbot, Andersen, Crawford, Rinne, Rask, Jones and Lundqvist. This season, his SV% is above guys like Bishop, Jones, Allen, Varlamov, Talbot and Murray. I don't know, looks like he has a pretty good case for that $6M contract.

    Lehner isn't a great fantasy hockey option because his team doesn't win games and they allow too many goals against. But Lehner is not the one responsible for the mess in Buffalo.

    And no, I don't own Lehner in any of my fantasy hockey leagues. I tried to acquire him recently but couldn't pay the price because of the Buffalo situation. But fantasy hockey and the NHL are two different things. In the NHL, you can't just acquire a goalie who immediately starts winning games for you. You just need a league average goaltending, and then you need to build a team that wins games.

  3. #18
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    Default Re: Guessin' Succession

    If you look at the contracts that have gone out the past couple seasons, rarely are you seeing a goalie get $5M+ with Price being the only exception and we can't really compare Lehner there. Guys like Talbot, Murray, Vasilevskiy, Jake Allen, Craig Anderson, Darling, Markstrom, and Ben Bishop have all signed new deals in the past year (or so) and none of them are over $5M per season. Some are below $4M. Safe to say all of those guys are just as good, or better, than Lehner.

    I will say it again, there is no way Lehner is worth $6M. Teams rarely sign goalies for that much anymore. Considering he just signed a bridge deal for $4M again, it will be interesting to see what his own perceived value will be in the off-season and if he's willing to stay close to that amount.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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  4. #19
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    Default Re: Guessin' Succession

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    If you look at the contracts that have gone out the past couple seasons, rarely are you seeing a goalie get $5M+ with Price being the only exception and we can't really compare Lehner there. Guys like Talbot, Murray, Vasilevskiy, Jake Allen, Craig Anderson, Darling, Markstrom, and Ben Bishop have all signed new deals in the past year (or so) and none of them are over $5M per season. Some are below $4M. Safe to say all of those guys are just as good, or better, than Lehner.

    I will say it again, there is no way Lehner is worth $6M. Teams rarely sign goalies for that much anymore. Considering he just signed a bridge deal for $4M again, it will be interesting to see what his own perceived value will be in the off-season and if he's willing to stay close to that amount.
    You're talking about long-term contracts, I'm talking about a one-year contract. And I'm also talking about the upper limit for that. If they sign Lehner long-term, it's definitely going to be much less than $6M per season. Probably in the $4M range.

    Toronto signed Andersen for 5 years at $5M after two seasons in the .916 SV% range which is actually a bit worse than Lehner's SV%. Carolina gave Darling $4.15M for 4 years without him ever being a starting goalie. Is Lehner really going to take less than that on a 4 year deal? I doubt that. With the cap going up, I'm guessing he'd want $4.5M for 4 years.

    NHL teams pay more for flexibility. They don't care about an extra $1M or $2M if it gives them flexibility. Best bargains are created when teams are willing to take a chance on a player and the player wants financial security. If it was your money on the line, would you rather have Lehner at $4.5M for 4 years or $6M for 1 year? I know I'd rather have the lower AAV in fantasy hockey but if I was an NHL GM or NHL owner, I'd think twice about making that commitment. $6M is an overpayment but then you wouldn't be committed to that player beyond that one year. Joe Thornton is a great example - he was previously playing on three-year deals but when the Sharks only offered him 1 year, they had to pay him $8M which was more than he had on his previous contracts.

    We all knew guys like Vasi and Murray would definitely outplay their contracts very easily but they had no leverage at the time. They didn't even have arbitration rights. Players are willing to take less for financial security - especially if their only other options are to take the $1M QO or hold out and not play at all. Lehner's QO is $4M, so he knows he's getting at least that much.

    Bishop and Anderson signed contracts that end when they're 36 and 37. Those contracts are not really comparable to Lehner's situation.

    The price-tag on NHL goalies is going up all the time. Elite goalies are asking for $10M+ now. Good proven starters want to be in that $8M+ range. Even completely unproven "could be starters" are getting $4M+. It's a brave new world thanks to guys like Lundqvist and Price who are both signed until they're 39 years old and still have $8.5M and $10.5M AAV - imagine what it would have been if they were given less term? Lehtonen, Varlamov, Smith and Howard already got between $5M and $6M on their previous contracts. Considering how much the cap has gone up and how much it continues to go up, that level of goalies will get $6M+ easily in the future. That's why teams are willing to take their chances with those "could be starters" like Talbot, Jones and Darling. You're not really sure what you're getting but you could end up with a bargain if it works out.

  5. #20
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    Default Re: Guessin' Succession

    I think the Sabres know exactly what they have in Lehner and also the reason he hasn't got that long term security that other goalies have received, even the unproven ones. They don't hate him but they also haven't got the guy they truly want yet either and I don't think it's Lehner. Time will tell.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


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  6. #21
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    Default Re: Guessin' Succession

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    I think the Sabres know exactly what they have in Lehner and also the reason he hasn't got that long term security that other goalies have received, even the unproven ones. They don't hate him but they also haven't got the guy they truly want yet either and I don't think it's Lehner. Time will tell.
    Yes, exactly. I also wouldn't be in a hurry to sign him long-term because of his injury history. That's why a short-term over-payment wouldn't be all that bad IMO. I'm just trying to find some comparables to figure out where he stands.

    Now that I've been thinking about it some more, Frederik Andersen is the only real comparable to the Lehner situation. With the upcoming cap, that $5M now equals to somewhere between $5.34M and $5.62M, so let's say $5.5M. That's a realistic target for Lehner since he can use Andersen as a comparable. Andersen was also a 26-year-old RFA who had very similar numbers in the NHL. But again - that's with 5-year term attached to it. Would he take less money to get out of Buffalo after just one more year? That's totally possible. But he also has every right to want more than that if the team is not willing to commit to him. He may not get it and he may not be worth it but that's within his rights, and he can go to arbitration trying to get that.

  7. #22
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    Default Re: Guessin' Succession

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    Yes, exactly. I also wouldn't be in a hurry to sign him long-term because of his injury history. That's why a short-term over-payment wouldn't be all that bad IMO. I'm just trying to find some comparables to figure out where he stands.

    Now that I've been thinking about it some more, Frederik Andersen is the only real comparable to the Lehner situation. With the upcoming cap, that $5M now equals to somewhere between $5.34M and $5.62M, so let's say $5.5M. That's a realistic target for Lehner since he can use Andersen as a comparable. Andersen was also a 26-year-old RFA who had very similar numbers in the NHL. But again - that's with 5-year term attached to it. Would he take less money to get out of Buffalo after just one more year? That's totally possible. But he also has every right to want more than that if the team is not willing to commit to him. He may not get it and he may not be worth it but that's within his rights, and he can go to arbitration trying to get that.
    I agree with ya here.
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


    "Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."

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