Guessin' Succession

[The Chump]

Happy New Year all!

We're at the half way point this season and I don't think I have a legit shot at winning my pool - injuries have done me in. FYI my keeper goalie stats are 2x win, 1x SO, 1xOTL, plus G and A.

So ... I'm looking at trading my number 2 goalie (Rask) to one of the contenders, which will open up that slot for next year. I've been thinking about which age 30+ number 1 starters are nearing the end of their contracts, and could be replaced by their young backup/top prospect either next year or the following year. Here is a short list of possibles, and their age for this season.

Pekka Rinne, 35 years, UFA 2019-20. Backup: Juuse Saros, 21.
Mike Smith, 36 years, UFA 2019-20. Prospect: John Gillies, 24. I doubt Tyler Parsons will be ready at this point.
Roberto Louongo, 38 years, UFA 2022-23! No clue what FLA is doing. They've also got Reimer UFA 2021-22.

And that's what I've come up with. I really thought there would be more teams in this situation. I did look at Detroit, but I'm not sure they'll be a consistently winning club within 2 years, so automatically dropped them from consideration.

If you think there are better candidates than the above to take starter roles in the next 2 years, don't be shy! I may not deal my number 2 starter this year, but at the very least I'd like to know whether it's something to consider for next year. I missed out on Vasilevskiy because I wasn't forward thinking enough. I don't want to be caught napping on the next good young starter.

Thanks to DobberProspects and CapFriendly for providing the information I needed to begin this process. Both are great sources for this type of decision making. Kudos.

[STONE.]

Saros is a great option. Definitely one I'd target.
Dell has been playing well enough in SJ to possibly steal some starts from Jones.

[The Chump]

Thanks for the reply. I'm looking for the next number 1 starter on a winning team. As well as Dell is doing as a backup, he will not be taking that number 1 spot from Jones any time soon.

I agree Saros looks like he's set up best in the NHL to take over as the number 1. I may have to wait until our September draft to get him as I don't think I can trade Rask without cost, plus I don't have room on my protected list for 3 goalies - Saros may not be ready until 2019-20.

[stevegamer]

Thanks for the reply. I'm looking for the next number 1 starter on a winning team. As well as Dell is doing as a backup, he will not be taking that number 1 spot from Jones any time soon.

I agree Saros looks like he's set up best in the NHL to take over as the number 1. I may have to wait until our September draft to get him as I don't think I can trade Rask without cost, plus I don't have room on my protected list for 3 goalies - Saros may not be ready until 2019-20.

I think Saros is pretty much ready right now, but the Predators aren't ready for him to take over right now.

I think 2-3 years out is far enough out for you to keep all teams on your radar for a couple of reasons.

1. Players get traded and injured. Murray isn't the Penguins goalie this year if Fleury is healthy in 2015-16, which opened the door for him. Fleury, who looked like a roadblock, is no longer there, which brings me to...
2. Think about what we "knew" Vegas was going to look like this year. Bottom feeder that was going to be selling at the deadline.... OOPS. To be fair, they still have a few too many defensemen with NHL contracts.

Some talented goalies may need to move to get a starting job, and some jobs will be available. Then you have teams who make a move to get a specific young goalie: Vegas and Subban come to mind.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Top teams don't usually trust unproven prospects to take over the starting job, so teams like Detroit or Vancouver (Demko) are more likely the better places to look for a future starting goalie. Although, one exception might be Washington if Samsonov comes over and impresses enough before Holtby's contract is up. But even that's a long-shot at this point. Other possibilities are Shestyorkin with the Rangers and Sorokin with the Islanders but they could also never leave Russia. The Vasilevskiy situation is very rare and only happens with elite prospects. Hart and Oettinger are possible elite prospects as well but they're too far away right now.

Florida will likely go with Reimer/Luongo tandem for a long time. Calgary and Nashville could add another proven goalie to their team once Smith and Rinne are gone. Maybe not a starter but at least a 1A type guy, similar to what Florida did.

[Axeman33]

Florida already has Lou's successor in Reimer. I won't be surprised if Nashville brings back Rinne on a one year deal, especially if they are still a contender (which I suspect they will be). Calgary is an interesting situation for sure. Smith isn't young but as long as he is still playing well at the end of his contract, I can see them signing him short term to ensure the kids are ready.

As mentioned, Demko is probably the best option to take over as a starter in the NHL as any.

[Eskimo Brother]

I think we see Buffalo make a big play for a replacement to Lehner whose contract expires this season.
Dell, Jarry, Raddish, Pickard, etc, might make sense. Trying to project goalies even two years down the road is futile.

[lucafen4]

Demko in Vancouver, you ban basically book this one.

[tobias]

As well as Dell is doing as a backup, he will not be taking that number 1 spot from Jones any time soon..

This reminds me of Scott Darling in Chicago last season. Darling was an RFA who was not going to take over the incumbent starter (Crawford), regardless of how well he did. Just like, as you have said, Dell is not going to steal the job away from Jones (Jones' fancy new contract kicks in next season, so the job is his, without question).

However, like Darling, Dell could play his way into a starting position for another team next season. Predicting if, where, and how this will turn out is extremely difficult, but that is what being a (fantasy) manager is all about. You roll the dice and sometimes you hit, sometimes you miss. Rask is a great goalie to own right now, so there is no way that I would trade him for a Dell, but if you truly aren't competing this year, and you could trade Rask for Dell + another piece or two that improve you, then it's something that might be worth doing.

Knowing more details would help everyone out with giving you the best advice that we can (league size, cap league?, stats, your roster).

[stevegamer]

There's an article on goalie prospects in the Wild West today, and I find Rittich interesting. He seems like the kind of guy the OP can grab easily, and he's even on one of the teams he mentioned. He's not old, and he, not Gillies is the guy backing up in Calgary.Additionally, they have alot of goalie prospects, so if Gillies does show as ready, Riddich could be on the move to team where he has a better shot to a timeshare at least.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I think we see Buffalo make a big play for a replacement to Lehner whose contract expires this season.
Dell, Jarry, Raddish, Pickard, etc, might make sense. Trying to project goalies even two years down the road is futile.

I'm not so sure about that - Lehner has been very good lately. I doubt they want to gamble with another guy who might or might not be as good as him. If they could grab a real starter, then maybe they'd do it.

They also have Ullmark developing nicely in the minors and he could take over the job from Lehner in a couple of years. He was great when playing in Sweden and has been improving every year in the AHL, and now he's one of the best goalies there.

[Axeman33]

I think Lehner's future in Buffalo will be determined by his contract demands in the off-season. If he's realistic, he's back. If he asks for something silly, he gone and they will go elsewhere.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I think Lehner's future in Buffalo will be determined by his contract demands in the off-season. If he's realistic, he's back. If he asks for something silly, he gone and they will go elsewhere.

He's a restricted free agent, though, so I'm not sure how much leverage he has. Sure, he's arbitration eligible but are they going to give him something silly? Maybe $6M for one year at worst. Considering how little value goalies have in the trade market, they might be better off just keeping him for another year and maybe look at trading him next year at the trade deadline assuming Buffalo still isn't a playoff team by then.

[stevegamer]

He's a restricted free agent, though, so I'm not sure how much leverage he has. Sure, he's arbitration eligible but are they going to give him something silly? Maybe $6M for one year at worst. Considering how little value goalies have in the trade market, they might be better off just keeping him for another year and maybe look at trading him next year at the trade deadline assuming Buffalo still isn't a playoff team by then.

Honestly, I think $6M for 1 year for Lehner is too much. Maybe even far too much. He basically has half a season to prove he's worth more than a backup level goalie contract.

[Axeman33]

He has done nothing to earn $6M. Hell, I dont think he's worth the $4M he's getting paid this year.