What is Boeser's worth?

[LeafsFan1967]

Just chiming in b/c well that's why we're on this thing right!?

I think you could almost guarantee he'll be a consistent 30G+ threat given the fact the guy just seems to score goals regardless of his ice time. He plays, he scores... that shot is just deadly. When you throw that together with the standard improvement a player sees after a year or two in the league I think you have to peg this guy as a serious goal scoring threat for the future. As you say though, is it 100%? No it isn't, but few things are... Guy is a rookie, he will score inconsistently. But I think you have to rate him below Keller as the best rookie player candidate.

Yes, I will look at Guentzel and raise you. Guentzel was playing on one of the most offensively talented teams in the entire NHL. Malkin, Kessel, Crosby are forces... and that program is put together with a lot of secondary scoring also... I mean that team has won bk 2 bk cups. So there is no comparison here. Who is Boeser playing with? Not a single player of the caliber of Malkin, Kessel, or Crosby... and when you throw in the talent on Pitts Defense - there is no question. Boeser is doing this all with a team that nobody expected to be that far ahead of Arizona this year.

Yes, he does look to be the next big thing... and I'm a pessimist like I should be with him. However, I think you really have to look at the upside. The upside is a player that scores 30+ or 40G and is in the 60-70 point range or you could trade that guy for a middle of the road option that may benefit your team this season... and is probably not a keeper player. I'm going to roll with the upside here and try to redraft the guy I could get for him in a trade right now. If it's a dynasty, I'm keeping regardless

Good points, but I don't think in any way Keller is a better rookie candidate. He may have higher long-term upside, in terms of pure points, but Boeser is helping his team to be more competitive than Keller is in Arizona. Boeser also has 3.37 fp/g, vs Keller 2.1, at least in my format. Boeser has a + rating (Keller is -11), and has 3 gwg to Keller's 0. The only advantage keller has is more even strength pts (14 to 12), but he has 20 pts in 24 games (0.83 pts/game), vs Boeser (1.11), and more shots on goal (3.08 vs 2.79). I would say the overall production (especially goals), and contribution to team success are the most important. Now obviously D don't put up as many pts, and can still be ROY candidates, but we're comparing 2 forwards.

[KerryFrasersToupee]

I agree with a lot of your points, except I don't think Monahan's numbers are massively inflated. He's a 23 year old centre, plays with Gaudreau consistently, and is shooting 19% (averaged 14.8 in first 4 years), so not drastically different. His shots/game are up this year, he's on pace for 246 shots, and the most he's had before is 299. If he shoots at 15% for an entire season, with his current shot volume, that's 36 goals. I was a projection of 32 g 36 a for him. Monahan is a good passer, so not like if his goal scoring pace slows, he won't be a great fantasy producer still. I think Monahan has a good shot at 70 pts this year (30-35 goals). He had 62 and 63 pts in his 2nd and 3rd years, and came down a bit in 4th, so he's getting back to where he should be. I don't think he's going to finish with 1.05 pts/game, but there are a lot of guys around the league at a pt/game so far (40 I believe), and lots of them don't have the same pedigree even. Like there are 50-60 pts guys producing above their usual output.

Right, but that's what I mean. Monahan is shooting 3% above his career average, but more importantly his team is shooting above 11% when he's on the ice. So both his goals and assists are likely to regress. I agree that Monahan has a good shot at 70 pts this year, and I think Monahan is basically a 70 pt guy without many peripherals. He's a good player. But I think Boeser is also a 70 pt guy, if not this year then going forward (the jury's still out on Boeser's peripherals...unclear if he'll ever develop a 'power' game and get more hits/PIM). So if they are roughly equivalent players in fantasy terms, but one of them will net you a higher return in a trade, you should trade that one (assuming you want to make a trade, of course). It's not a knock against Monahan; just a question of maximizing value over a limited number of roster spots. The question is just whether your pool overvalues potential or established names. Anyway, both are good players, so kind of a win/win either way.

Maybe more in the spirit of the original question, though, I guess the key point is that I don't see Boeser as someone that definitely should be sold high--like he's not Brian Gibbons or something. I think he's a player that's going to get 60+ pts each season, and should be valued accordingly.

[sdf]

Maybe more in the spirit of the original question, though, I guess the key point is that I don't see Boeser as someone that definitely should be sold high--like he's not Brian Gibbons or something. I think he's a player that's going to get 60+ pts each season, and should be valued accordingly.

Couldn't agree more. My point was simply if there's an owner in your league that is or could be convinced he will keep his current pace, this is a great time to trade. You know your league better than anyone else. If someone out there is prone to having their imagination and expectations run wild, let them run with Boeser. If there was ever a time to turn him into something more than the sum of his parts, this is it.

[LeafsFan1967]

Right, but that's what I mean. Monahan is shooting 3% above his career average, but more importantly his team is shooting above 11% when he's on the ice. So both his goals and assists are likely to regress. I agree that Monahan has a good shot at 70 pts this year, and I think Monahan is basically a 70 pt guy without many peripherals. He's a good player. But I think Boeser is also a 70 pt guy, if not this year then going forward (the jury's still out on Boeser's peripherals...unclear if he'll ever develop a 'power' game and get more hits/PIM). So if they are roughly equivalent players in fantasy terms, but one of them will net you a higher return in a trade, you should trade that one (assuming you want to make a trade, of course). It's not a knock against Monahan; just a question of maximizing value over a limited number of roster spots. The question is just whether your pool overvalues potential or established names. Anyway, both are good players, so kind of a win/win either way.

Maybe more in the spirit of the original question, though, I guess the key point is that I don't see Boeser as someone that definitely should be sold high--like he's not Brian Gibbons or something. I think he's a player that's going to get 60+ pts each season, and should be valued accordingly.

I didn't realize about the team shooting %, because Calg has been pretty bad in terms of goal scoring numbers as a whole, so I guess they're just maximizing the chances they do get. I agree with you about peripherals, my specific league isn't peripherals based though, it's just more goal heavy. No shots, hits, pims, things of that nature to account for. So a convo of value also depends whether it's real life we're talking about, or fantasy, but I guess on here it's more fantasy lol.

I agree with you about trading the guy who will garner you a better return, if the players are similar. I mean Monahan is still the more proven guy, but they have some similarities game wise. Monahan is under contract, and Boeser was my rookie I drafted, so I will be able to have both going into next year. The only guy that will make my decision more murky is Aho, because he's my rookie carry-over from last year, and after his 2nd year, I have the option to sign him to 1 or 2 years, as long as I have an open keeper slot. I don't have anyone expiring, just given I got Monahan in a trade last year (he was a 3), and you can't shorten a contract. So i'll likely stick with Monahan and try and trade Aho, but if Monahan fetches more interest, I'll consider moving him and signing Aho. Boeser I couldn't sign to 4 after this year even if I wanted to, w/o making a move first, and he's my rookie so I want to take advantage of that angle and have my 4 keepers + carry him into next year. You do lose out on 1 year with a guy if you have him as your rookie carry-over vs signing him after 1st season, but it also gives you a longer time frame to look at a guy before deciding on a contract. I made the mistake of signing MacK after his rookie season, and had him up until last year and traded him. Funny enough, I got monahan/ryjo when I sold him last year, then traded ryjo in off-season. I had a chance to re-acquire MacK this year with a pick for Monahan, before he went off, but 1 trade for vetoed, and then he traded MacK for Tyler Johnson lol. His best offer was Mack/3 for Monahan, but Monahan was doing much better at the time, and his fantasy pts/game are still higher, plus MacK will slow more, at least in my mind, given Colorado is still mediocre. Not going to live in the past, it's just if I had gotten MacK, he would have expired for me after this year, and I couldn't resign him because he hasn't been off of my team for 1 year. I was basically going to try and flip him after the year, but now that I see he has 25 pts, I'm thinking that trade would have been good! Oh well, I'm still happy with Monahan, and he'll score more goals. Plus you never know how picks will turn out, and I'm in the top 5 so I still want the guy producing better right now. And by right now, obviously MacK is that guy, but it's all because of this 10 game stretch, vs Monahan who has been consistent all year/was producing better than MacK when the trade was being discussed.

[FFleming5]

As a Boeser owner, I am interested in the original question though... What's Boeser worth?

Thus far we have a couple deals with 2-1:
Werenski + Boeser for Hedman
MacK + Boeser for Burns

Interesting that these were both for top D men who have been underperforming this year's expectations. Seems like classic Sell High/Buy Low situations here.

We can debate the future all we want - is he a 30-40 goal/ 60-70 pt player or is he just on a hot streak etc..

But what would Boeser be worth on a 1-1 trade? Keeper league (Not Dynasty) - Are we thinking he's a 50 pt guy this year with more upside going forward? 25/25 = 50+ seems like a sure bet here and I'd say given that roster he's a sure fire future 30/30=60 guy with increased ice time (He is only avg 16 mins a night now)

[MZac]

I think boeser is worth keeping if you can't land a really good player back. If someone will overpay you take it.

The two trades mentioned. I love boeser and werenski for Hedman as Hedman is a top 5 d man in the league. I dislike boeser and Mackinnon for Burns. Burns is older and struggling and Mackinnon has everything you need to be a star in today's league plus boeser is playing so well. This is my opinion on the surface without knowing more details around the leagues that made the trades.

I see boeser regressing so if I could get someone like Mackinnon, eichel (somewhat struggling), Kuznetsov, hall, granlund, rantanen, klingberg, etc. then im probably selling. Is he worth those guys? I don't think so but he's producing like them so if I can, I snag someone.

The other thing you have to remember is outside of dynasty leagues he was likely a fee agent pick up or late draft pick. He was a FA in my league. I sold Keller when he was ppg to land Crosby then he went pointless for quite a few games. The same thing will happen with boeser. These guys are kids playing elite hockey with men every single day. It's a long season and his value may not get higher than what it is now (this season).

In limited keepers or 1 year leagues If you can package him for a star id probably do it.

[LeafsFan1967]

As a Boeser owner, I am interested in the original question though... What's Boeser worth?

Thus far we have a couple deals with 2-1:
Werenski + Boeser for Hedman
MacK + Boeser for Burns

Interesting that these were both for top D men who have been underperforming this year's expectations. Seems like classic Sell High/Buy Low situations here.

We can debate the future all we want - is he a 30-40 goal/ 60-70 pt player or is he just on a hot streak etc..

But what would Boeser be worth on a 1-1 trade? Keeper league (Not Dynasty) - Are we thinking he's a 50 pt guy this year with more upside going forward? 25/25 = 50+ seems like a sure bet here and I'd say given that roster he's a sure fire future 30/30=60 guy with increased ice time (He is only avg 16 mins a night now)

It's hard to say what he's worth, in my league, I don't think I would get a legit stud for him, like a proven guy, because he's a rookie.

I definitely don't consider this just a hot streak, he's 19 games into his season. He's not going to be over a point per game all year, but I also think he'll surpass what people expected (25/25) given he's got 21 in 19. To get 50 pts, he would need to fall off drastically. I already discussed his shot volume, and likelihood his shooting % should only go down by about 5. 11 G, 10 A, so to get 25 and 25, that would be 14 g, 15 a in last 61 games. I don't see him playing at a 39 pt pace for the last 61 games. I think 60 pts this year is nearly a lock, and upside for more obviously. Hard to say where he ends up though, there are a lot of guys at point per game this year vs normal, but this can change from year to year depending on goal scoring. You say a future 30/30 guy, he'll probably get that in his first full season, lol

[LeafsFan1967]

I think boeser is worth keeping if you can't land a really good player back. If someone will overpay you take it.

The two trades mentioned. I love boeser and werenski for Hedman as Hedman is a top 5 d man in the league. I dislike boeser and Mackinnon for Burns. Burns is older and struggling and Mackinnon has everything you need to be a star in today's league plus boeser is playing so well. This is my opinion on the surface without knowing more details around the leagues that made the trades.

I see boeser regressing so if I could get someone like Mackinnon, eichel (somewhat struggling), Kuznetsov, hall, granlund, rantanen, klingberg, etc. then im probably selling. Is he worth those guys? I don't think so but he's producing like them so if I can, I snag someone.

The other thing you have to remember is outside of dynasty leagues he was likely a fee agent pick up or late draft pick. He was a FA in my league. I sold Keller when he was ppg to land Crosby then he went pointless for quite a few games. The same thing will happen with boeser. These guys are kids playing elite hockey with men every single day. It's a long season and his value may not get higher than what it is now (this season).

In limited keepers or 1 year leagues If you can package him for a star id probably do it.

I don't see him regressing much, based on my argument before about shot volume/good shooting % even when he does regress. I'm in a keeper format, with the ability to carry a rookie over, so he's a hold for me. When he goes through a cold spell, I have guys that I drafted to be starters (Perry/Zuc) that I can sub into my lineup.

[FFleming5]

It's hard to say what he's worth, in my league, I don't think I would get a legit stud for him, like a proven guy, because he's a rookie.

I definitely don't consider this just a hot streak, he's 19 games into his season. He's not going to be over a point per game all year, but I also think he'll surpass what people expected (25/25) given he's got 21 in 19. To get 50 pts, he would need to fall off drastically. I already discussed his shot volume, and likelihood his shooting % should only go down by about 5. 11 G, 10 A, so to get 25 and 25, that would be 14 g, 15 a in last 61 games. I don't see him playing at a 39 pt pace for the last 61 games. I think 60 pts this year is nearly a lock, and upside for more obviously. Hard to say where he ends up though, there are a lot of guys at point per game this year vs normal, but this can change from year to year depending on goal scoring. You say a future 30/30 guy, he'll probably get that in his first full season, lol

Yeah, I'm in the same boat with getting a proven guy (Unless the proven guy was drafted 1 or 2). I haven't tried yet, but I'd definitely still have to overpay in order to get an established player who could be kept. And for that, I'll probably keep Boeser on the roster even if I am unable to keep him into next year. Did the same thing last year with Arvidsson

[renello]

Well right or wrong I traded Boeser today for Voracek. I am in a win now mode in keep 10. He would have to hit the 30/30 to be a keeper for me. He may well do that but I think Voracek goes for 75 this year. All fun. Thanks all, great discussion. Carry on.

[Moses]

Vancouver fan here. My two cents...

The Canucks have no legit scoring threats other than Boeser (maybe Horvat). Boeser is going to get all the icetime and opportunity in the world as there is no winger in the Canucks organization who is remotly in his way in the fight for ice time.

To answer the original question. Good comparables could be:

- What David Pasternak was worth in November 2016
- What Filip Forsberg was worth in November 2015
- What Nikita Kucherov was worth in November 2014

- - - Updated - - -

Well right or wrong I traded Boeser today for Voracek. I am in a win now mode in keep 10. He would have to hit the 30/30 to be a keeper for me. He may well do that but I think Voracek goes for 75 this year. All fun. Thanks all, great discussion. Carry on.

Can't argue with that move from a one year vantage point.

[MZac]

Vancouver fan here. My two cents...

The Canucks have no legit scoring threats other than Boeser (maybe Horvat). Boeser is going to get all the icetime and opportunity in the world as there is no winger in the Canucks organization who is remotly in his way in the fight for ice time.

To answer the original question. Good comparables could be:

- What David Pasternak was worth in November 2016
- What Filip Forsberg was worth in November 2015
- What Nikita Kucherov was worth in November 2014

- - - Updated - - -



Can't argue with that move from a one year vantage point.

So the thing with those comparisons and they aren't bad (but they are huge names to be compared to) is that people need to remember that they weren't worth anywhere near what they are now back in those years listed. Which means boeser isn't worth anywhere near what they are currently. I don't totally disagree but perspective is important and not just putting his name with those top end players (which Moses didn't do, I'm just pointing it out). Could he get there? Ya he could but not for a few years and if you can get any of those 3 players for him do it immediately.

[lucafen4]

Boeser's on a tear right now, there's no doubt about it. I just don't see how you can take 28 career games and definitely say he'll be a 40 goal threat from here on out. What, if anything, leads you to believe he's immune to a team or individual slump? Go back to when Clayton Keller couldn't stop scoring, then all of a sudden he stopped?

Look at a similar player in Jake Guentzel. His "82 game point pace" last year would have had him finish 1.5 points behind Auston Matthews. Then an amazing playoffs, playing with Crosby, and people are ready to anoint him to the same status you hold Boeser in now. After a quarter season of play this season, Guentzel's perceived value has changed dramatically. I would argue he ticked more boxes than last season than Boeser does right now, in projecting a future star.

My point is, in terms of fantasy league excitement, he looks to be a next big thing. In terms of trade value, the idea of what he could be, might be greater than what he'll end up being. So if there was ever a time to maximize a return on an asset, this is it. Cash in on potential. You could hit the jackpot if you wish-upon-a-star, but if you find a more proven commodity at a lower than average value, it make sense to move him.

This time last year, Johnny Gaudreau had 11pts in 17 games. Do you think an owner back then would entertain a deal for a player producing at the same rate Boeser is now?

Boeser's doing this with Horvat as his C. Guentzel did it with Crosby. Not to mention he's still carving out PP time. There's a pedigree difference with regard to their pivots.

I would take Boeser over Guentzel in any fantasy format you could give me.

[Moses]

So the thing with those comparisons and they aren't bad (but they are huge names to be compared to) is that people need to remember that they weren't worth anywhere near what they are now back in those years listed. Which means boeser isn't worth anywhere near what they are currently. I don't totally disagree but perspective is important and not just putting his name with those top end players (which Moses didn't do, I'm just pointing it out). Could he get there? Ya he could but not for a few years and if you can get any of those 3 players for him do it immediately.

Yeah, I was looking back at young players who had some hype coming into that particular season that had breakout years -- while trying to ignore high first round picks and focusing for a player(s) with pedigree that were big question marks.

IE - What was Forsberg's value at the 1/4 mark of his coming out season in 2015? We all knew that Forsberg was a player to watch and (maybe) try to acquire 2 years ago but he still would have been a young kid with a 'maybe' attached to him. I think Boeser of 2017 is a similar comparision.

Forsberg had 23 points in his first 23 games in 2015 after scoring 5 points in 13 games in 2014-15.
Boeser has 21 points in his first 19 games this season after scoring 5 points in 9 games in 2016-17.
Both players were 20 when starting their breakout season.

*Kucherov and Pastrnak have similar career tracks at the same age - not quite the mirror image of Forsberg has currently with Boeser.*

If you are looking for a real world fantasy value I think that Boeser + (something good) should be able to fetch an extremely good player with a proven track record. Boeser on his own should get a player coming back but that player is also going to have question marks attached to them.

[Moses]

I hope than somone can chime in and illustrate some example recent of 20/21 year olds that burst out of the gate in a similar manner then radically tailed off. I am interested in getting to the route of the OP's question, "What is Boeser's worth?".

(There has to be an automated way to pull up the data as a starting point rather than going case by case. I know there is a way, !!*I just know it*!! /clenches fist/ I just don't know how to at the moment nor have the time and wherewithal to figure it out.)