What is Boeser's worth?

[renello]

Thinking of shopping him around. My feeling as his start has to be a bit of a flash in the pan and some regression due. Vancouver is still Vancouver? Thanks.

[sdf]

In a 5 player (any position) keeper league, I just traded Boeser and MacKinnon for Brent Burns. My other D are Gostisbehere, Krug, and Ristolainen so I desperately needed backend help.

I think Boeser is in perfect sell-high territory. Not only is he producing, but with no real track record, I think some owners will make the assumption that what they've seen, is what they'll get going forward. He has all the makings of a great player, but 16 mins a night and .208 shooting percentage suggest he will come back down to earth. He could be a game or two away from slowing down like Clayton Keller has recently and his trade value might go along with it.

If you are considering trading him - do it now. Find a slumping player in a position you need and pull the trigger.

[LeafsFan1967]

Thinking of shopping him around. My feeling as his start has to be a bit of a flash in the pan and some regression due. Vancouver is still Vancouver? Thanks.

Couldn't disagree with you more. I mean by all means, if you think he's not legit, or Van is crap move him but it'll be a mistake. He shot 16% in a small sample size last year. Yes. one can reason that if a guy is shooting over 20%, it'll come down a bit but he's not going to fall of the face of the earth. He's 20 years old, and he and Horvat have great chemistry together. He's easily the best rookie so far, if you look at fp/g and +/- and how well the team is doing. He's not going to score 45 goals, but he'll be a 40 goal threat moving forward, and I could see him finishing with 30 g and 60 pts at worst this year. He put up big numbers in college too, and it's obviously translating well. He had 43 goals and 94 pts in 74 games at ND. Look at the placement of his shots, last night as an example: 1st goal a wrister, roofed it, 2nd goal a slapper, goalie didn't even see it, roofed it.

[LeafsFan1967]

In a 5 player (any position) keeper league, I just traded Boeser and MacKinnon for Brent Burns. My other D are Gostisbehere, Krug, and Ristolainen so I desperately needed backend help.

I think Boeser is in perfect sell-high territory. Not only is he producing, but with no real track record, I think some owners will make the assumption that what they've seen, is what they'll get going forward. He has all the makings of a great player, but 16 mins a night and .208 shooting percentage suggest he will come back down to earth. He could be a game or two away from slowing down like Clayton Keller has recently and his trade value might go along with it.

If you are considering trading him - do it now. Find a slumping player in a position you need and pull the trigger.

Bad move buddy, sorry to break it to you. If you were going to move those guys, why wouldn't you go for a Hedman type guy, vs someone who is over 30?! Obviously his shooting % won't stay 0 all year, but San Jose is on the decline.

What do you mean by no real track record? He was a big time pt producer in college, and had a great trial in Van for 9 games last year. His good play has carried into this year, and he'll only get better as he matures. He's already got a man's body, he doesn't need to add bulk like Keller. And he's playing 16 minutes a night right now because they probably don't want to burn him out. They are obviously not going to limit his games as originally anticipated, but he's still a young player. He shot at a good % in a small sample size last year, and yeah his % is a bit high this year, but expecting him to fall off the map isn't realistic either. I think he has 40 goal upside, and his lower end for this year is probably 30 g and 60 pts given his good start. He has the type of release where you'll probably see him shoot in the mid-teens (think Monahan). Monahan was between 13-16 % in his first 4 years, and is at 19 % this year. These guys get to the dirty areas and score goals, but also have lethal shots. Monahan is playing with a very creative winger in Gaudreau, and Boeser is playing with a good all around centre in Horvat, and the 2 have great chemistry. BB will only continue to get better as he matures. Boeser put up 43 goals and 94 pts in 74 games at ND. Look at the placement of his shots, last night as an example: 1st goal a wrister, roofed it, 2nd goal a slapper, goalie didn't even see it, roofed it.

[sdf]

it'll come down a bit but he's not going to fall of the face of the earth. He's 20 years old, and he and Horvat have great chemistry together. He's easily the best rookie so far, if you look at fp/g and +/- and how well the team is doing. He's not going to score 45 goals, but he'll be a 40 goal threat moving forward, and I could see him finishing with 30 g and 60 pts at worst this year. He put up big numbers in college too, and it's obviously translating well.

Boeser's on a tear right now, there's no doubt about it. I just don't see how you can take 28 career games and definitely say he'll be a 40 goal threat from here on out. What, if anything, leads you to believe he's immune to a team or individual slump? Go back to when Clayton Keller couldn't stop scoring, then all of a sudden he stopped?

Look at a similar player in Jake Guentzel. His "82 game point pace" last year would have had him finish 1.5 points behind Auston Matthews. Then an amazing playoffs, playing with Crosby, and people are ready to anoint him to the same status you hold Boeser in now. After a quarter season of play this season, Guentzel's perceived value has changed dramatically. I would argue he ticked more boxes than last season than Boeser does right now, in projecting a future star.

My point is, in terms of fantasy league excitement, he looks to be a next big thing. In terms of trade value, the idea of what he could be, might be greater than what he'll end up being. So if there was ever a time to maximize a return on an asset, this is it. Cash in on potential. You could hit the jackpot if you wish-upon-a-star, but if you find a more proven commodity at a lower than average value, it make sense to move him.

This time last year, Johnny Gaudreau had 11pts in 17 games. Do you think an owner back then would entertain a deal for a player producing at the same rate Boeser is now?

[COLT.45]

I flipped Werenski and Boesser for Hedman a few weeks ago. Its probably a little bit of an over payment (especially now since BB hasn't slowed down at all) but I have been trying to get my hands on Hedman for a while.

[sdf]

If you were going to move those guys, why wouldn't you go for a Hedman type guy, vs someone who is over 30?! Obviously his shooting % won't stay 0 all year, but San Jose is on the decline.

We only have 10 teams, 5 keepers each. With the amount of roster turnover year after year, guys don't typically trade the Hedmans. Needed D production now and I'm not necessarily into burns for the long term. Shot volume and offensive and pp opportunity from the D position were the main motivators.

Even Dobber has him ranked #2 in D keepers right now so there's gotta be more in the tank than maybe you're giving credit for.

[COLT.45]

We only have 10 teams, 5 keepers each. With the amount of roster turnover year after year, guys don't typically trade the Hedmans. Needed D production now and I'm not necessarily into burns for the long term. Shot volume and offensive and pp opportunity from the D position were the main motivators.

Even Dobber has him ranked #2 in D keepers right now so there's gotta be more in the tank than maybe you're giving credit for.

If you had have made this deal in the offseason everyone would think you are a genius. That being said, MacK has been playing some really great hockey and so has BB. considering, based on your sig, that non of the players in the deal are going to be keepers it seems like a slight overpayment. I do feel like Burnsy will get better than he has been. Who did you scoop from FA?

[KerryFrasersToupee]

I don't think Guentzel's outlook has changed. He was, and still is, a flashy player capable of putting up big numbers in the right circumstances (i.e., when he's with Sid), but not driving production on his own. With absolutely terrible puck luck this year (5.4% team shooting and 943 PDO), he's still at 0.57 pts/game. I don't think any experienced GM would have anointed him as anything other than a mid-round pick, but conversely I don't think any experienced GM would write him off as a bust at this point either.

Boeser is a different animal because his shot can create offense out of nothing, and because he's producing without Crosbys and Letangs and Malkins around him. I agree that he will probably regress this year, but I think his long-term potential is of an upper-tier sniper. Not a Kucherov, but maybe somewhere between an Ehlers and a Laine. Yes, his shooting % is high and might regress a little, but his other numbers are low so a decline in goals should come with a few more assists. In the future, I think he's very likely a 70 pt player, with 85 pt upside if he finds chemistry with a slick playmaker down the road (Pettersson?).

Now, all of that is separate from the question of shopping him around. For the right price, of course you should trade him. If GMs in your pool think Boeser is going to be Kucherov and will pay accordingly, great.

Final point: On your team, and just thinking of absolute value, not perceived value by other GMs, I would want Boeser over Dadonov, Nash, Schmaltz, Tkachuk, and Zucker for sure. I would put him around the level of Ehlers, Monahan, Zibanejad, and maybe Aho, if Aho is having a good day. So then the question would be, if you're looking to move a forward, which one will be perceived by other GMs as having the most value? Someone like Monahan, whose numbers are massively inflated and will almost certainly regress, might actually get you more value. Or, for a less exciting trade, what about someone like Nash--could you parlay his name recognition and recent play into getting a depressed player like Silfverberg, whose numbers will rebound once Kesler and Getzlaf are back?

[audiopile]

Boeser has the ability to hit the net through traffic. Its a bit unbelievable to see him firing turnaround shots from above the circles and hitting the goalie but he does it quite consistently. His SH% is well above average and high for anyone but its not that overblown. Sell high if you want but I think this is the norm for him. And the opportunity.

To answer your question, he is a 30G, 30A player with only a few peripherals. Value accordingly.

[sdf]

If you had have made this deal in the offseason everyone would think you are a genius. That being said, MacK has been playing some really great hockey and so has BB. considering, based on your sig, that non of the players in the deal are going to be keepers it seems like a slight overpayment. I do feel like Burnsy will get better than he has been. Who did you scoop from FA?

I agree that right now it appears to be an overpayment, but that's the way it goes when you trade for someone yahoo had #6 O-rank at the start of the year. My d production has been anemic, with krug in and out of the lineup, and ristolainen being a mess. Right now the addition was activating Ristolainen as he's close to returning.

[LeafsFan1967]

Boeser's on a tear right now, there's no doubt about it. I just don't see how you can take 28 career games and definitely say he'll be a 40 goal threat from here on out. What, if anything, leads you to believe he's immune to a team or individual slump? Go back to when Clayton Keller couldn't stop scoring, then all of a sudden he stopped?

Look at a similar player in Jake Guentzel. His "82 game point pace" last year would have had him finish 1.5 points behind Auston Matthews. Then an amazing playoffs, playing with Crosby, and people are ready to anoint him to the same status you hold Boeser in now. After a quarter season of play this season, Guentzel's perceived value has changed dramatically. I would argue he ticked more boxes than last season than Boeser does right now, in projecting a future star.

My point is, in terms of fantasy league excitement, he looks to be a next big thing. In terms of trade value, the idea of what he could be, might be greater than what he'll end up being. So if there was ever a time to maximize a return on an asset, this is it. Cash in on potential. You could hit the jackpot if you wish-upon-a-star, but if you find a more proven commodity at a lower than average value, it make sense to move him.

This time last year, Johnny Gaudreau had 11pts in 17 games. Do you think an owner back then would entertain a deal for a player producing at the same rate Boeser is now?

Some guys just transition to the nhl game quicker/are more mature physically. That's BB for you. He's a goal scorer, I'm not saying he's definitely a 40 goal threat, but he could be if he doesn't go into a long drought. To give you context, if he shoots 15% for the rest of the year, and keeps up his shot pace (2.78/game), he'll get around 170 shots (25-26 goals). He's already at 11, so 25-26 goals in 61 games isn't crazy. I think 25 goals is a lock, with a shot at 30+. I don't think he's immune to a team or individual slump, just don't see anything like that lasting very long. Van is also doing much better than Arizona (a dumpster fire).

I was never that high on Guentzel, he's a smallish, speedy forward who plays with Crosby a lot. Of course that will inflate his numbers. I think he's a good young player, but I never thought of he's comparable to Matthews, that's crazy. Nor did I say Boeser is Ovechkin or Stamkos. He has characteristics that that goes have, but he's still a 20 year old player. Pitt as a whole is mediocre so far, but they played into June last year, so I have to think there is some fatigue there. That, and teams key in on you when you've won 2 cups in a row. And sure, maybe Guentzel ticked more boxes, but he got a chance to play in the playoffs and walked into a situation where the team was already good, Boeser is helping that team be competitive night to night. I'm in a keeper format, and he's my #2 rw behind Wheeler, so I get what you're saying about buying low on someone, but you have to look at the guy your getting's situation.

I don't disagree about his value might be greater than what he'll end up being, but guys trade for consistency vs a shorter sample size, so I would rather stay patient with a young guy and enjoy the ride. I get the chance to carry him into next year, like I did with Aho going into this year. A lot of it depends on league set up, may be more willing to move him in a 1 year league, but no way in a keeper, unless you just can't keep the guy. My format lends itself to me hanging onto him.

I don't full get your last question, if I owned Gaudeau and was offered Boeser, I would probably decline if Gaudreau was cold. He's obviously more well established, and the original offer you discussed was 2 good young players for a vet (30+), Johhny Hockey is 24. I love me some Boeser though, I just wouldn't move him in my situation, unless I was getting a stud rookie back that I felt had a higher ceiling. Can't argue with his start though.

[LeafsFan1967]

Boeser has the ability to hit the net through traffic. Its a bit unbelievable to see him firing turnaround shots from above the circles and hitting the goalie but he does it quite consistently. His SH% is well above average and high for anyone but its not that overblown. Sell high if you want but I think this is the norm for him. And the opportunity.

To answer your question, he is a 30G, 30A player with only a few peripherals. Value accordingly.

For him to score 30 goals, given he's at 11 in 19 games, he would need to get 19 in last 61 (25 goal pace). He's getting 2.78 shots/game, so let's say he gets 19 more goals, that would mean he will convert on 11% of his 170 or so shots over the rest of the year. I was saying more realistic he'll shoot closer to 15% given his release/Monahan being a good comparable. I say he gets 30-35 goals, but probably closer to 35 if his shooting % only drops by about 5%.

[FFleming5]

Boeser's on a tear right now, there's no doubt about it. I just don't see how you can take 28 career games and definitely say he'll be a 40 goal threat from here on out....

Look at a similar player in Jake Guentzel. His "82 game point pace" last year would have had him finish 1.5 points behind Auston Matthews. ...

My point is, in terms of fantasy league excitement, he looks to be a next big thing...

This time last year, Johnny Gaudreau had 11pts in 17 games. Do you think an owner back then would entertain a deal for a player producing at the same rate Boeser is now?...

Just chiming in b/c well that's why we're on this thing right!?

I think you could almost guarantee he'll be a consistent 30G+ threat given the fact the guy just seems to score goals regardless of his ice time. He plays, he scores... that shot is just deadly. When you throw that together with the standard improvement a player sees after a year or two in the league I think you have to peg this guy as a serious goal scoring threat for the future. As you say though, is it 100%? No it isn't, but few things are... Guy is a rookie, he will score inconsistently. But I think you have to rate him below Keller as the best rookie player candidate.

Yes, I will look at Guentzel and raise you. Guentzel was playing on one of the most offensively talented teams in the entire NHL. Malkin, Kessel, Crosby are forces... and that program is put together with a lot of secondary scoring also... I mean that team has won bk 2 bk cups. So there is no comparison here. Who is Boeser playing with? Not a single player of the caliber of Malkin, Kessel, or Crosby... and when you throw in the talent on Pitts Defense - there is no question. Boeser is doing this all with a team that nobody expected to be that far ahead of Arizona this year.

Yes, he does look to be the next big thing... and I'm a pessimist like I should be with him. However, I think you really have to look at the upside. The upside is a player that scores 30+ or 40G and is in the 60-70 point range or you could trade that guy for a middle of the road option that may benefit your team this season... and is probably not a keeper player. I'm going to roll with the upside here and try to redraft the guy I could get for him in a trade right now. If it's a dynasty, I'm keeping regardless

[LeafsFan1967]

I don't think Guentzel's outlook has changed. He was, and still is, a flashy player capable of putting up big numbers in the right circumstances (i.e., when he's with Sid), but not driving production on his own. With absolutely terrible puck luck this year (5.4% team shooting and 943 PDO), he's still at 0.57 pts/game. I don't think any experienced GM would have anointed him as anything other than a mid-round pick, but conversely I don't think any experienced GM would write him off as a bust at this point either.

Boeser is a different animal because his shot can create offense out of nothing, and because he's producing without Crosbys and Letangs and Malkins around him. I agree that he will probably regress this year, but I think his long-term potential is of an upper-tier sniper. Not a Kucherov, but maybe somewhere between an Ehlers and a Laine. Yes, his shooting % is high and might regress a little, but his other numbers are low so a decline in goals should come with a few more assists. In the future, I think he's very likely a 70 pt player, with 85 pt upside if he finds chemistry with a slick playmaker down the road (Pettersson?).

Now, all of that is separate from the question of shopping him around. For the right price, of course you should trade him. If GMs in your pool think Boeser is going to be Kucherov and will pay accordingly, great.

Final point: On your team, and just thinking of absolute value, not perceived value by other GMs, I would want Boeser over Dadonov, Nash, Schmaltz, Tkachuk, and Zucker for sure. I would put him around the level of Ehlers, Monahan, Zibanejad, and maybe Aho, if Aho is having a good day. So then the question would be, if you're looking to move a forward, which one will be perceived by other GMs as having the most value? Someone like Monahan, whose numbers are massively inflated and will almost certainly regress, might actually get you more value. Or, for a less exciting trade, what about someone like Nash--could you parlay his name recognition and recent play into getting a depressed player like Silfverberg, whose numbers will rebound once Kesler and Getzlaf are back?

I agree with a lot of your points, except I don't think Monahan's numbers are massively inflated. He's a 23 year old centre, plays with Gaudreau consistently, and is shooting 19% (averaged 14.8 in first 4 years), so not drastically different. His shots/game are up this year, he's on pace for 246 shots, and the most he's had before is 299. If he shoots at 15% for an entire season, with his current shot volume, that's 36 goals. I was a projection of 32 g 36 a for him. Monahan is a good passer, so not like if his goal scoring pace slows, he won't be a great fantasy producer still. I think Monahan has a good shot at 70 pts this year (30-35 goals). He had 62 and 63 pts in his 2nd and 3rd years, and came down a bit in 4th, so he's getting back to where he should be. I don't think he's going to finish with 1.05 pts/game, but there are a lot of guys around the league at a pt/game so far (40 I believe), and lots of them don't have the same pedigree even. Like there are 50-60 pts guys producing above their usual output.