Saros toast?

[Bstbullies]

So Saros was the toast of the town and a top (if not tip top) goalie prospect heading into the season. Now his stock has taken a major hit as he's gotten toasted all season. My question is, does this downward trend continue or is he still on track to be a stud? I'm the first to say goalies are voodoo (which they are!) and I've bought low on him in a couple of my leagues. His size and everybody bailing on him worries me. Is this proof he can't hack it or is it an example of small sample size and a great buy low window? I obviously am in the latter camp but looking for opinions. What say you?!?

[stevegamer]

I think he has the talent to be a stud goalie, but the jury is most definitely out.

He's played 4 games this year. 1 very good, 1 poor, and 2 awful. He plays once a week, and the sample size is way too small to be sure of much of anything from this year. Last year he showed he has a good shot to be a good NHL goalie. I'd be fine holding him in a deep keeper or dynasty.

[striderz]

Vas was a similar goalie. Didn't have a great year last year, but he's running with it now. So, a few bad games shouldn't be enough for you to give up.. but it all depends on how long Rinne sticks around for

[Bstbullies]

So, a few bad games shouldn't be enough for you to give up..

To clarify I'm not giving up, I'm buying low. I am however worried people are on to something I'm not. He just looks so darn small in that net.

[MZac]

Buy low.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I've never been very high on him, and I think Preds made a mistake with his development. He played just 39 and 36 games during his two seasons in North America (both NHL and AHL games included). If they're trying to develop him into a starting goalie who can play 50+ games per season in the NHL, that's not a good way to do it. At least when he was still playing in Finland, he played 44 and 47 games per season but that's still not enough. He's still exempt from waivers, so they should send him down to the AHL to get some games under his belt.

Or maybe they don't see him becoming a starting goalie at all. It's really difficult for smaller goalies to play 50+ games per season in the NHL. Is there anyone who is 5'10" or smaller who has done that in recent history? Even guys like Tim Thomas and Jaro Halak seem to be 5'11", and I can't think of too many smaller goalies who have done that.

[stevegamer]

Here's the list of guys who've played 40+ games in net since 2000:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla..._by=player_csk

Height wasn't a sort option, but I stopped after finding a few guys under 5'11": Vernon, Vanbiesbrouck, Toskala. It's not a short list, though, so going throuh it to find them all would take more time than I have.

[Axeman33]

I almost wish they would send him to the AHL so he can get his starts in. Sitting on the bench is not really conducive to becoming a quality starting goalie in the NHL; getting lots of work, even in the AHL, is.

We all knew Rinne would run the roost in goal for the Preds for at least one more season due to his contract. I am surprised that Saros isn't given more starts though, even to give Rinne a regular night off to keep him ready (and healthy) for the playoffs.

All this being said, I do think he still has the upside to become a legit NHL starting goalie.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Here's the list of guys who've played 40+ games in net since 2000:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla..._by=player_csk

Height wasn't a sort option, but I stopped after finding a few guys under 5'11": Vernon, Vanbiesbrouck, Toskala. It's not a short list, though, so going throuh it to find them all would take more time than I have.

Thanks for the link!

I took data from 2007-2008 forward because that gives us a neat 10 year sample. During that time, there was a total of 204 cases where NHL goalie played 50+ games during a season from a total of 63 different goalies. I checked everyone's height from EliteProspects, and out of those 63 goalies, Vesa Toskala, Manny Legace and Jhonas Enroth are the only guys who are 5-10 or below (they're all exactly 5-10).

One inch is not going to make a big difference, so here are all the goalies who are below 6-0:
Tim Thomas (4 times)
Marty Turco (3 times)
Jose Theodore (3 times)
Jaroslav Halak (3 times)
Vesa Toskala (twice)
Martin Gerber (once)
Manny Legace (once)
Jhonas Enroth (once)

That doesn't seem too bad but when you really think about it, that's only 18/204 or 8.8% of the 50+ game seasons belonging to goalies who are below 6-0. If we only look at more recent seasons, since the latest lockout (2012-2013), that number is down to 3/92 or 3.3%. If we change the filter to 60+ games from 2007 to 2017, it's 4/107 or 3.7%. Since the lockout, it's 0/43.

I didn't look at 40+ game seasons because to me, that's a timeshare (1A/1B type situation) and not a real starting goalie which is what fantasy owners want. I made some nice Excel charts below to properly illustrate this point. Those odds are not great. And the amount of small goalies seems to be going down.

I doubt it's about their talent level. My personal belief is that it's because bigger goalies don't always have to be on top of their game - they can block shots by just being big in net whereas smaller goalies have to be sharp all the time, and that's perhaps too difficult to do for 50+ or 60+ games. Basically, the NHL schedule is just too demanding for them. But I'm no goalie expert, so that's just my best guess. Everyone can feel free to write their own guesses as to why this data looks the way it does. There are probably more than one reason for these results. But the results look pretty clear to me.

I'm definitely not saying it can't happen with Saros - it's completely possible. But the odds are definitely stacked against him, and I'm guessing asking prices are still relatively high, so I won't be buying at this time. Maybe if his stock continues to go down so that the risk/reward ratio improves but I wouldn't want to pay too much.

[ericdaoust]

I never saw him as a future full-time #1 goalie. Size is the problem here. He'll always be streaky. He'll be #1B at best.

[Dennis]

I guess David Poile was reading this thread.

Nashville, Tenn. (November 16, 2017) - Nashville Predators President of Hockey Operations/General Manager David Poile announced Thursday that the club has recalled goaltender Anders Lindback from the AHL's Milwaukee Admirals. Additionally, the club has assigned goaltender Juuse Saros to Milwaukee.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/news/p...ck/c-293033594

[Axeman33]

I guess David Poile was reading this thread.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/news/p...ck/c-293033594

Good stuff. Let him go down and get some work.

[ericdaoust]

Lindback had some good years as Rinne's backup once upon a time...

[Jouko-Pouko]

I guess David Poile was reading this thread.

https://www.nhl.com/predators/news/p...ck/c-293033594

NHL GMs should be reading these forums more often. @Mr. Poile, I'm available for any hockey consultant jobs you may have!

[agentzero]

Don't get lost in the numbers. Saros has a tonne of talent. He needs work to stay sharp for sure..

Put me down for not liking the demotion, though. Look at Rinne's SV% since Nov 1st:


DATE OPP W GA SV SV%
11/16 @Min - - - - -
11/14 Wsh 1 3 26 .897
11/11 Pit 1 4 26 .867
11/7 @Cls 1 1 35 .972
11/4 @LA - - - - -
11/3 @Ana 1 3 35 .921
11/1 @SJ 0 4 19 .826

Besides the 972 stellar game against CBJ (and despite the Ws), it paints a downward trend... again, not getting lost in the numbers (since NSH starts him regardless of SV% lol), it seemed to me like some NHL work was going to start coming his way. I still think once the calendar flips, he will get more work in the NHL, in preparation for the playoffs.

And like I said, while he does need work, I'm not sure it's in the AHL. His last AHL numbers were plain ridiculous, on an AHL squad that wasn't exactly stacked with future studs. Saros is the real deal and I don't think size will hold him back.