Morgan Reilly

[J0e Th0rnton]

That’s the thing...utilization has changed markedly. He’s on the top PP now and seeing more ice time. With another goal tonight so far he’s at 11 pts in 14 games. He’s closing in on half his point total for last year and we’re not even 20% into the season. If you don’t see this as a breakout in the making...well...I don’t know what to say. Agree to disagree.

Morgan Reilly had 10 points in his first 14 games last year too. And he had 10 points in his first 14 games in 15-16

Having 11 points in 14 games this year is an improvement over the past 2 years at this time by exactly 1 point.

I'd hold judgment in him having a breakout until the 40 game mark.

[The Black Panther]

So I've decided I have to wait until the regression (I believe will occur) before I can make an offer. With all of this production, it's an unrealistic cost to my squad especially given the fact that I'm already loaded up on D. I'd have to make one of the D part of the trade for it to even make sense period. But hey, maybe Theodore will go on a run and make it really easy for me! (We can hope)

My Current D - And why I want to make a move: (OEL, S. Weber, Trouba, Seabrook, Muzzin, Montour, S. Theodore, R. Ellis - IR)

Ummm isnt that the reason you are going after him because you see a bust out year.

Why would you want opinions on what you consider a 30 pt more defensive defenceman?

[FFleming5]

Ummm isnt that the reason you are going after him because you see a bust out year.

Why would you want opinions on what you consider a 30 pt more defensive defenceman?

Man this is a hard crowd. I don't consider him a 30 pt player nor do I consider him a 50 point player. That was the whole point. I asked for options, 2 people responded 1 said Lindholm/Kreider... One said Oshie/Drouin. I'm not looking to get something for nothing. Info provided was more of a value debate where I wouldn't be willing to part with Oshie/Drouin (WHOM I DO NOT OWN I MAY ADD) while a Kreider/Lindholm (which I do own) offer seemed more reasonable to me.

Also, no, I do not think this year will be the true break out season for Reilly either so I'm planning on getting in a little early. Do I think he'll score 29 points again? No I think he'll have more. But I do not think he will get over 40 pts either and there are a lot of great D-men in good positions who do not get over 40 as you know.

Additionally, I am not in a rebuild so I will not be overpaying for a player I bet will be having a regression to a rate .5 ppg or less over this year. I'm betting on that, and if I'm wrong, maybe I should've paid the higher price. But at the same time I'd imagine that there is something that would make sense in a deal with a player + a pick/prospect that can get the deal done.

My statement was alluding to maybe a better time to make the offer will be when this "regression" that I believe will occur does occur. If it does not, then I lose... but hey, I have no problem waiting!

[BreadManPanarin]

The answer to your original question is that in order to acquire him now you would have to ?buy high? because he is playing like a 65 point d man. His owner will undoubtedly feel like he might be able to keep it going, so he won?t sell him for anything less than the value of a 55-60 pt d man. You would obviously know best what that value equates to in your league.

If you want to buy him for less than the value of a 55-60 pt d man then you will need to wait for regression, as you suggested. Personally I think he breaks 50 this year. He is getting the deployment he needs to do so, and he has the skill. Last season / this offseason was the time to buy low on him. I doubt his value will ever be as low again as it was then.

[tweetdrivr]

Morgan Reilly had 10 points in his first 14 games last year too. And he had 10 points in his first 14 games in 15-16

Having 11 points in 14 games this year is an improvement over the past 2 years at this time by exactly 1 point.

I'd hold judgment in him having a breakout until the 40 game mark.

Yes but...
15/16 AVG PP TOI through 14 games was 1:30 w/ 1 PP pt
16/17 AVG PP TOI through 14 games was 37 sec w/ 2 PP pts
17/18 AVG PP TOI almost 3 mins w/ 4 PP pts.
His PP TOI has doubled on the 15/16 numbers and is 5 fold what it was last year. His PP production thus far is double that of last year.

If you don't see the big difference in his usage, the skill and development of the forward corps in front of him, and the maturation of his game as pointing to a likely BIG improvement over last year than I've got nothing for you.

[FFleming5]

The answer to your original question is that in order to acquire him now you would have to ?buy high? because he is playing like a 65 point d man. His owner will undoubtedly feel like he might be able to keep it going, so he won?t sell him for anything less than the value of a 55-60 pt d man. You would obviously know best what that value equates to in your league.

If you want to buy him for less than the value of a 55-60 pt d man then you will need to wait for regression, as you suggested. Personally I think he breaks 50 this year. He is getting the deployment he needs to do so, and he has the skill. Last season / this offseason was the time to buy low on him. I doubt his value will ever be as low again as it was then.

Yes but...
15/16 AVG PP TOI through 14 games was 1:30 w/ 1 PP pt
16/17 AVG PP TOI through 14 games was 37 sec w/ 2 PP pts
17/18 AVG PP TOI almost 3 mins w/ 4 PP pts.
His PP TOI has doubled on the 15/16 numbers and is 5 fold what it was last year. His PP production thus far is double that of last year.

If you don't see the big difference in his usage, the skill and development of the forward corps in front of him, and the maturation of his game as pointing to a likely BIG improvement over last year than I've got nothing for you.

TY This is the info I'm looking to discuss!

Agree now is total buy high moment and I can't push the deal now. Agree last year was the time to buy in and had Reilly, however, couldn't justify using a keeper slot for him and missed the redraft this year. Agree usage is up, but question if it will remain so for the year.

Know a breakout year is coming although I hope this year isn't the big one so I can reacquire. No way he gets above 50 I'd say while 50 is possible, I still don't think probable.

Just going to have to sit and wait for a regression at the moment

Thanks for the input

[BreadManPanarin]

Update:

Up to a 69 point pace after a goal and an assist last night.

His shooting % is slightly higher than his career shooting % (6.4 vs 4.5) and he is on pace for 30 PP Pts which is Erik Karlsson territory, so a bit of regression is quite likely. Still, I think he is going to break 50 pts without breaking a sweat.

Wonder how many people thought Rielly would have 3 more points than Marner and Nylander, and only 3 points less than Matthews through 19 games?

[SergeP]

TY This is the info I'm looking to discuss!

Agree now is total buy high moment and I can't push the deal now. Agree last year was the time to buy in and had Reilly, however, couldn't justify using a keeper slot for him and missed the redraft this year. Agree usage is up, but question if it will remain so for the year.

Know a breakout year is coming although I hope this year isn't the big one so I can reacquire. No way he gets above 50 I'd say while 50 is possible, I still don't think probable.

Just going to have to sit and wait for a regression at the moment

Thanks for the input

Pro tip: if you want people to continue giving you advice, don't shit all over everyone who takes the time out of their day to respond to your question.


Having said that, it doesn't sound like you understand the concept of market value which is equal parts performance and perception/projection. You're stuck on the former but it really doesn't matter whether or not Rielly hits 50 this year because so long as he gets 40-45 he'll be projectedas a future 50-55 point guy due to his youth and perceived upside. You may disagree but you're unlikely to buy him for less than that because a) the GM who owns him will value him more than you do or b) other GMs in your league will value him more than you do and be willing to outbid you.

[FFleming5]

Update:

Up to a 69 point pace after a goal and an assist last night.

His shooting % is slightly higher than his career shooting % (6.4 vs 4.5) and he is on pace for 30 PP Pts which is Erik Karlsson territory, so a bit of regression is quite likely. Still, I think he is going to break 50 pts without breaking a sweat.

Wonder how many people thought Rielly would have 3 more points than Marner and Nylander, and only 3 points less than Matthews through 19 games?

Yep, I've been watching and this looks like it truly is a breakout year for him... Even if he only puts up another 25-30 points this season he'd have broken out. I'd agree that this is highly probable... While I don't see 55-60 still, the guy has broken out as a fantasy asset. Only issue is hits/blks in my settings but at a 50 pt pace, a very valuable player

Noone thought he'd be out pacing Marner that is for certain.


I've been wrong before and happy to admit that is the case here... should've gotten on board earlier.

[tweetdrivr]

Pointless in 5 games...nows your chance to grab him.

[Pit Bulls]

A lot will also depend on the situation of the current Reilly owner.

For example, I took over a bottom-feeding team and Reilly was my only D-man worth keeping. I immediately began a total re-build and I value Reilly much more than perhaps others do as I need a solid return for him in order to move him - otherwise I'd rather keep him to build around due to his age and the fact the leafs are only going to get better over the next few years which should result in Reilly maintaining his solid production.

[FFleming5]

Yes, I agree that this is a breakout season for him however this correction was also due. I'm not sure it's the bottom yet. I do believe he'll break the scoreless streak but his ppg is still not to buy low. My anticipation is that Reilly will still fall to the .5+ ppg point by year end which is still in line with a breakout - he is not Erik Karlsson obviously.

More believable especially as Gardiner has now started scoring again and Babcock may be rolling the hott(er) hand for a bit.

[Kabonov]

overrated... Ekholm will probably beat him out this year.

[tweetdrivr]

He’s back to nice production...back to an over 50 pt pace. Matthews being back can’t hurt either. I really enjoy watching this kid play.

[The Black Panther]

He’s back to nice production...back to an over 50 pt pace. Matthews being back can’t hurt either. I really enjoy watching this kid play.

Well said