Morgan Reilly

[FFleming5]

What is a fair offer to make for Morgan Reilly?

[HonkyTonkMan]

I think Rielly gets in 45 pts but my concern is his plus/minus as he is out there against the big guns.

He isn't a monster in multi cat but pretty well rounded. A leaf fan GM will surely over value him.

I think he is to be an upper echelon fantasy D but never reach stud status.

[Waffle Jokinen]

I'll consider Kreider or Lindholm or Backlund for Rielly. It depends on what he's asking for and what his D look like.

[tweetdrivr]

As a Rielly owner I would not take any of those players for him. And I’m not a Leafs fan. Move up an echelon to maybe a Stone, Oshie or Drouin and we can start talking. A 45 pt D with some upside on that is worth quite a bit in my opinion.

[FFleming5]

Oshie/Drouin for Reilly is laughable. Guy scored .36 pts a game last season and ended up with 29 points. If he performs at that same clip he will still be well under 40... And with Babcock putting all that new pressure on the team to play better defense I see Reilly staying in a more defensive role as he's better at that than Gardiner. Now I definitely see upside with Reilly but that is not secure enough to pay that ridiculous asking price. I'd think about Kreider/Lindholm but agree Backlund would not be enough and I'd also be willing to possibly part with S. Theodore or a pick to sweeten the pot. But Drouin or Oshie would be a big overpay

[tweetdrivr]

Oshie/Drouin for Reilly is laughable. Guy scored .36 pts a game last season and ended up with 39 points. If he performs at that same clip he will still be well under 40... And with Babcock putting all that new pressure on the team to play better defense I see Reilly staying in a more defensive role as he's better at that than Gardiber. Now I definitely see upside with Reilly but that is not secure enough to pay that ridiculous asking price. I'd think about Kreider/Lindholm but agree Backlund would not be enough and I'd also be willing to possibly part with S. Theodore or a pick to sweeten the pot. But Drouin or Oshie would be a big overpay

It'd be helpful to see you team/league info posted in your signature so we'd know the base fantasy perspective you're dealing from. And we can talk again when Rielly tops 50 pts this year. I own Rielly in both my leagues where, as you can see from sig, D men are quite valuable based on the production I can get from those games. He's worth that second tier level forward easily.

[FFleming5]

Team info is at the top underneath my initial post. Thanks

[Wonko]

As a Rielly owner I would not take any of those players for him. And I?m not a Leafs fan. Move up an echelon to maybe a Stone, Oshie or Drouin and we can start talking. A 45 pt D with some upside on that is worth quite a bit in my opinion.

I agree. Funny how so many people devalue 40 point D men. That said, Reilly still has to prove he is a 40 point D man. Might take a player a with a smidge less value than Drouin/Stone/Oshie for him if I had the offer, but I would not accept Kreider or Lindholm types either.

[Waffle Jokinen]

I didn?t devalue him at all, i own him in my league. But to consider Stone or Oshie with all the peripherals they bring in that type of pool with those settings i dont think he?s worth that much at the moment. Maybe Drouin, his not much of a stats filler beside pts. But for me, i will consider one of Lindholm (multicat filler) and Kreider (hits, shp & sog) for sure with a +, not straight up, like the op said. He?s a real good young d-men, but maybe the op do not want to give that much (oshie type of player) for a d who maybe he will not keep at the end of the year?

[FFleming5]

I agree. Funny how so many people devalue 40 point D men. That said, Reilly still has to prove he is a 40 point D man. Might take a player a with a smidge less value than Drouin/Stone/Oshie for him if I had the offer, but I would not accept Kreider or Lindholm types either.

Equally funny how someone scoops up a defenseman in the bottom end of the draft, he has a hot start and then all of a sudden he's worth someone in the top 80 drafted players.

Cam Fowler had a similar start last season... ended up with 39 pts. If Reilly has a .5 ppg pace, a SIGNIFICANT improvement over last year and plays 82 games he gets 41 points. I just don't think his stats will jump at such a high rate in such a short time. Guy had 29 points last year at a ppg pace of .36... what makes you think he has a 40% improvement on the same roster with not much different utilization? The facts don't really support it. I'm not saying he doesn't get to 40, but just that 40 doesn't get you to Oshie/Drouin. Oshie gets you to Kreider/Lindholm

[tweetdrivr]

That’s the thing...utilization has changed markedly. He’s on the top PP now and seeing more ice time. With another goal tonight so far he’s at 11 pts in 14 games. He’s closing in on half his point total for last year and we’re not even 20% into the season. If you don’t see this as a breakout in the making...well...I don’t know what to say. Agree to disagree.

[pmkidd]

I say by end of this season RIELLY value going to be a good bit higher.

[FFleming5]

That’s the thing...utilization has changed markedly. He’s on the top PP now and seeing more ice time. With another goal tonight so far he’s at 11 pts in 14 games. He’s closing in on half his point total for last year and we’re not even 20% into the season. If you don’t see this as a breakout in the making...well...I don’t know what to say. Agree to disagree.

I am seeing this as a big thing potentially. However it hasn't happened yet, and yet is important. Maybe a breakout is in the making... however, there is no question a regression is coming. Muzzin has a similar stat line, I suppose he's due for 45 pts also under this logic.

I'm not judging Reilly negatively here... or disagreeing that Reilly will break out at some point... I really like the player and would like to acquire him. I am just saying Drouin/Oshie is a stretch in a trade right now. Dobber's 300 top keeper skaters shows Reilly = 150 as of today while Oshie = 85; Drouin = 40; Kreider = 75; and Lindholm = 81.

.36 - .5 ppg is a big jump, and that is possible and would be a breakout but that still gets you to 40 pts.

[Waffle Jokinen]

Dont forget that 300 keeper list is for pts only league. But still give a nice overview for multicat leagues.

[FFleming5]

So I've decided I have to wait until the regression (I believe will occur) before I can make an offer. With all of this production, it's an unrealistic cost to my squad especially given the fact that I'm already loaded up on D. I'd have to make one of the D part of the trade for it to even make sense period. But hey, maybe Theodore will go on a run and make it really easy for me! (We can hope)

My Current D - And why I want to make a move: (OEL, S. Weber, Trouba, Seabrook, Muzzin, Montour, S. Theodore, R. Ellis - IR)