I'm not good at math. Help me with GAA/SVP? Rep!

[jimc21]

So here's the deal. I am winning 3 of 4 goalie cats, I have a potential to start Murray @ WPG and Darling vs. ANH tonight. My opponent has no more starts. All I need is another 25 saves and I win all four cats. But if one of those guys has a bad game, I'm worried that I'll lose the SVP and GAA cats.

I have 6 total starts already this week and the cumulative SVP is .944. The cumulative GAA is 1.67. I need to stay better than .933 and 2.32 to win those cats. Am I on pretty safe ground to start one or both of those guys to win that fourth goalie cat? I mean, how bad would my guys have to be to blow this for me? Is it worth the risk? Seems like I should be able to endure a 3 goal game or two, right?

Rep to anyone who can figure out this math problem! THANKS!

[ross10019]

First of all, if you only need 25 saves, I think you start only one - and with the Ducks on a b2b, I think that means Darling. Plus the Pens have been shelled in a few games this year and the Jets are the type of team to do that to a goalie. If you start Darling and he has a mediocre game (e.g. 4 goals on 30 shots), he might still win you the 4th category while preserving Sv% and GAA since you have had 6 starts, the bad start won't be enough to significantly lower those. Of course it could be a different story if Darling gets pulled, but that's highly unlikely in a Canes home game v a tired team.

So that's what I'd do IF YOU REALLY NEED THAT 4th CATEGORY, but there is a very good argument to be made for grabbing the 3 categories and not taking the risk. That's probably what I'd do. Note that the risk is higher on the Sv% side than GAA since you have far more of a cushion there - one bad game can more quickly lose you Sv% than GAA. So it's more like risking losing one category versus gambling on winning an extra category.

I'd say starting Darling, there is a 60/40 chance you take all 4 categories, maybe higher. Are you a gambling man? ��

UPDATE: Murray probably won't play the 2nd of the Pens b2b, so he's probably not an option anyway, and if he does start I'd be worried about a tired Pens team giving up a few early goals and Murray getting pulled.

[jimc21]

Thanks! Yeah, I am a gambling man, at least this week. We're tied 5-5, it's not likely that I win any other cats this week even though I'm out-manning him by 3 tonight, and last week I got shelled. I figure I might as well go for the gold. But usually I'd bench my guys and not be greedy, as you say. You make a good point that if Darling gets 25 saves, I pick up a cat even if I lose one, so I'd come out even.

But is there some formula or algorithm that is easy to use to figure out such things as SV% and GAA? It might come in handy later on.

[Jouko-Pouko]

OK, here are some answers for you.

1) Starting both goalies:
- If both play the full game, they would need to give up a total of 9 goals for you to lose GAA. But of course if either gets pulled, you might lose with less GA than that.
- If they both give up 4 goals, they would have to make 42 saves each for you to still win SV%.

I don't really like that scenario for you.

2) Starting just one goalie:
- If that one goalie plays the full game, he'd need to give up a total of 7 goals for you to lose GAA. Even if he's pulled after giving up 4 goals, you'd still win GAA.
- Assuming he gives up 4 goals, he only needs to make 27 saves for you to still win SV%.

I think this scenario is much better for you. 27/31 saves and you win everything - that doesn't sound too bad. And it's very unlikely you'd lose GAA in this case (being pulled after 5 goals being the most likely scenario where you lose GAA), so you'd pretty much just risk losing SV% to win saves.

I would need to know and input your exact numbers to be absolutely sure about these scenarios, though. I created an Excel file for myself for just this type of scenarios, and I recommend you doing the same.

[jimc21]

Totally agree - great advice! I'll message you off the forum with some stats, and maybe you can share your magic spreadsheet with me. I appreciate it!

[GSD]

WOW! Both of these guys did a lot of research for you! I would rep them both myself, If I could. I get in that situation I just figure it out gaa=goals allowed /games played (60 minutes) and save pct= saves/ shots. I assume 30 shots per game going forward and roll with it.

[jimc21]

Yeah, great advice. Rep'ed them both, for sure. I can see a scenario where I could lose the SV% - if Darling gives up 4 goals and ANH doesn't get 28 SOG, I could be screwed. But I'm gonna go for it, figuring that if ANH does get 4 goals, it will be on 28+ shots and I break even. Jouko should be selling that spreadsheet for cash!

[GSD]

Good luck!

[Magicstew]

I'd gamble too for the win, put your odds at 90/10 for breaking even and 60/40 to win the extra category. Good odds and the boys did some good calculations for you.