Keeper league: Tavares vs. Bjorkstrand + who to p?ck 2nd overall (nice table inside)

[obie4life]

I'm seeking for some advice because our draft is coming in about a week. Thanks for the help !

League info: Points only, 5 teams, Keep 15,

Dress: 2 goaltenders, 6 defense and 12 forwards (+ 10 on bench)

Players salaries = Cap hit incl. bonus, Team cap = 75 M$

My non-keepers: Beaulieu, Ceci, Matheson, Thornton, Donskoi, Mackinnon, Eberle, McNabb, Haula, Couture, Faulk

Here's my keepers with points projections (goalies are 2W + 2SO + 1OTL). I kept 3 goalies since Dubnyk is one of the best goaltenders and cost only 4,33 M $. I can trade him pretty easily if another team losses it's #1 goaltender and I can rotate him weekly with Talbot or Dubnyk if the Wild play more games any given week or have an easier schedule. Plus my non-keepers are not very attractive !

As you can see, I can afford 2,5 M $ per remaining spot so that's not a lot of room.

Goaltenders	Points projection	Salary cap
Cam Talbot	92	4,17 M$
Braden Holtby	94	6,1 M $
Defense
Brent burns	74	8,0 M $
Shayne Gostisbehere	55	4,5 M $
Noah Hanifin	35	1,78 M $
Forwards
James Van Riemsdyk	60	4,25 M $
Mark Stone	61	3,5 M $
Cam Atkinson	65	3,5 M $
Nikolaj Ehlers	68	1,59 M $
Max Pacioretty	67	4,5 M $
Brad Marchand	75	6,13 M $
Artemi Panarin	70	6,0 M $
Andre Burakovsky	43	3,0 M $
John Tavares	70	5,5 M $
Bench
Devan Dubnyk	88	4,33 M $
Total cap hit without Dubnyk		62,52 M $
Average avalaible to dress 7 more		2,5 M $ per player

Question #1) I'm very high on Bjorkstrand (40-45 points for 0,863 M $) and the owner was asking for Stone or Panarin. I declined and then we talked about Tavares. Next year, he will make about 10 millions...for a 70-85 points career average I don't plan to keep him at that price !

I won the league last year and I can contend again this year. If I make the trade, the other owner will have McDavid, Crosby, Kutcherov, Tavares and Wheller. I'm afraid to give him the title away with that trade, even if this saves me 5 millions to spend on other players ! He won't keep Tavares past next year because the new McDavid contract will kick in.

Do you guys think the risk of lossing this year is worth the long term cap relief ? Let's say Bjorkstrand resigns a bridge deal for 3 millions at the end of the year (like Burakovsky) !

Question #2) I own the 2nd overall pick for the draft. Here's a list of avalaible players that i'm interested in with their cap hit. How would you rank them ?

1. Guentzel (0,93) PROBABLY PICKED 1ST OVERALL

2. Theodore (0.86) MY CHOICE FOR NOW SINCE CHEAP 1ST PP DEFENSEMAN ARE RARE (RFA AFTER SEASON)

3. Keller (1,67) 3 YEARS AT THIS PRICE

4. Hischier or Rakell (3,8)

4. Mantha (0,86) RFA AFTER SEASON

5. McAvoy (1,26) SCARED OF SPLIT BETWEEN AHL/NHL (2 YEARS AT THIS PRICE)

[als_revenge]

Keep Tavares and play to win. Sure, maybe he makes 10 million next year. And maybe he's not playing for the Islanders.

If Guentzel is drafted first, take Keller. You are overrating Theodore. Just take whoever is left between Guentz and Keller and go for another title.

[Jouko-Pouko]

There's a serious risk that Theodore gets sent down to the AHL unless Vegas can unload a few of their D-men. Theodore can be sent down without waivers, so they may prefer to use that option. I would take Guentzel or Keller, whichever is available.

And I would also keep Tavares because you're not getting enough in return - he's still excellent value for another year.

[LuigiC173]

I love Bjorkstrand and have him pegged as the guy to target late but he is not John Tavares...ever.

[Luffy D Monkey]

I'd rank the guys in your second questions Guenzel, Keller, Hischier, Rakell, Theodore.