2017/18 Dobber Entry - Smythe Division

[audiopile]

I guess I will post mine, just to be like everyone else, LOL. Obviously Fabbri will be dropped.


Harry Holecheckers

Losing your 21st pick isnt so bad. As a compliment I will say I did not enjoy drafting after you and I hope you feel the same about me!

[tweetdrivr]

Losing your 21st pick isnt so bad. As a compliment I will say I did not enjoy drafting after you and I hope you feel the same about me!

It wouldn't be a fun draft without hovering over the "Draft Now" button only to have your player taken by the guy right before you! Man I hate that. I also had my computer freeze up long enough to get Dylan Larking when I meant to Draft Orlov...only to see Orlov go a few picks later.

[Tylerandhobbes]

I was very surprised (and pleased) to get Burns at 8. I think I stopped thinking about D a bit too early because of that though... we shall see.

1. (8) Brent Burns (SJ - D)
2. (19) Matt Murray (Pit - G)
3. (34) Filip Forsberg (Nsh - LW)
4. (45) Kris Letang (Pit - D)
5. (60) Jonathan Quick (LA - G)
6. (71) Jeff Skinner (Car - LW)
7. (86) Jakub Voracek (Phi - RW)
8. (97) Anze Kopitar (LA - C)
9. (112) Chris Kreider (NYR - LW)
10. (123) Nazem Kadri (Tor - C)
11. (138) Jake Gardiner (Tor - D)
12. (149) James Neal (VGK - LW,RW)
13. (164) Elias Lindholm (Car - C,RW)
14. (175) Ondrej Palat (TB - LW)
15. (190) Eric Staal (Min - C)
16. (201) Derek Stepan (Ari - C)
17. (216) Dmitry Orlov (Was - D)
18. (227) Jared Spurgeon (Min - D)
19. (242) David Perron (VGK - LW,RW)
20. (253) Jean-Gabriel Pageau (Ott - C)
21. (268) Thomas Greiss (NYI - G)
22. (279) Victor Rask (Car - C)
23. (294) Mathieu Perreault (Wpg - C,LW)
24. (305) Anton Stralman (TB - D)
25. (320) Michael Stone (Cgy - D)

[temek]

Projected standings

Rank	Team	Draft pos	Skater pts	Goalie pts	Total pts
1	Tylerandhobbes	8	47	31	78
2	Duncan Destroyers	10	54	20	74
3	Wesley's Team	6	47	18	65
4	evans334	2	41	23	64
5	Elliot's Superb Team	1	35	28	63
6	StuntMan12	5	41	22	63
7	Dunnders Renegades	12	36	23	59
8	Harry Holecheckers	9	40	16	56
9	The Killer Joke	7	23	29	52
10	Steve's Cool Team	3	38	9	47
11	Laine and the Lamb	4	43	3	46
12	finnys full cups	11	23	12	35

[evans334]

Projected standings

Rank	Team	Draft pos	Skater pts	Goalie pts	Total pts
1	Tylerandhobbes	8	47	31	78
2	Duncan Destroyers	10	54	20	74
3	Wesley's Team	6	47	18	65
4	evans334	2	41	23	64
5	Elliot's Superb Team	1	35	28	63
6	StuntMan12	5	41	22	63
7	Dunnders Renegades	12	36	23	59
8	Harry Holecheckers	9	40	16	56
9	The Killer Joke	7	23	29	52
10	Steve's Cool Team	3	38	9	47
11	Laine and the Lamb	4	43	3	46
12	finnys full cups	11	23	12	35

Ugh....hopefully my goalies can over achieve :-/

[Pengwin7]

Ugh....hopefully my goalies can over achieve :-/

With temek's predictions, the "Skater pts" is more important (as projections) than the "Goalie pts", IMO.
You've got 18 skaters in your line-ups each feeding parts of 6 cats. That's 108 Player*Cats.
With goalies, 2 goalies in your line-ups each feeding parts of 3 cats. That's 6 Player*Cats.

So even though goalies have HUGE weight... the sum of projection stats are way more "dependable" for Skaters (108) than Goalies (6). [Amount of Data = Better Reliability of Data.]
Pure randomness of one goalie having a better-than-expected season (or conversely poorer-than-expected season) can really skew that prediction.

Personally, I think anybody within 25% of the top "Skater Pts" has a good chance to be competitive.
And conversely, anybody outside 50% of the top "Skater Pts" has basically no chance to be competitive (i.e. Top Two qualifier).
[*This said, if the skater quantities are VERY TIGHT, very very tight, then theoretically a 23pt offense might just barely be in the bottom of every category... statistically unlikely, but possible - I can't see "range".]

Interpreted, even Laine and the Lamb (at 11) can be competitive, by my theory.
Whereas, KillerJoke (9) and finnys full cups (12) don't have a shot at top two, unless they make serious upgrades in their skater-groups.
They might finish middling (5-8), but a team simply can't do top two without a good skater group - as that's where more points exist.

[temek]

I think over half the teams were not projected to hit 164 GP with their goalies so many of the low Goalie pts projections are just due to that. My skater projections have historically been significantly more reliable than goalie projections so I tend to agree with Pengwin7 in that regard.

There have been cases where bottom3 projected teams have won the league so it's not out of question for even those teams to have a chance of winning. I think my projections are a significant step better than just saying every team has an equal chance, but it's far from a destiny.

[evans334]

[audiopile]

Thanks for the rankings Temek. I'll try not to trade myself out of a good finish this year

[tweetdrivr]

What are these projections based on?

[StuntMan12]

Interesting projections. I finished middle of the pack last year as well. It's only fitting.

[Eskimo Brother]

What are these projections based on?

Temek's own forecasting that he puts together.

[tweetdrivr]

I take it he has proven to he correct on a regular basis?

[tweetdrivr]

Well seeing as Temek says my skaters are underwhelming (my Cs I concede are not good) I'd be open to a trade of some sort. I've got two top tier goalies and one very good back-up. Let me know here or on the league if you have any interest. Looks like Wesley's team and the three teams under me (I'm the Killer Joke) should probably take a look at my roster...

[temek]

I take it he has proven to he correct on a regular basis?

That depends entirely on what you mean by "correct". I'd say my projections are a decent bit better than saying everyone has an equal chance, but they are far from a destiny. There have been cases where bottom3 projected teams have won so don't put too much stock into them.

As far as I am considered there are no good projections available anywhere, everyone ranges from poor to terrible as far as I see it if we are talking about the accuracy of the projections. There's a lot randomness involved in hockey and even 10 pts difference in projected finish isn't much of a difference.

I think I have posted end of season recaps of the projections in Rocky Horror Roto Show for the last few seasons so you might want to check those threads if you want to get some idea on how accurate they were. Might be faster to check my post history though as I don't really post that much in the forums.