Does this mean anything for Seattle's NHL chances?

[Tobias Funke]

Does it?

Seattle Mayor Ed Murray and the Oak View Group (OVG) have a formal agreement to build a $600 million privately financed arena at Seattle Center, with tens of millions more in transportation mitigation.

The deal calls for construction to begin next year and be complete by 2020.

http://www.king5.com/mobile/article/...view/473972650

[Kofax]

Bettman is always harping on having an arena in place before you even get to talk about a team. So I would say it increases their chances.

[kgray]

Yup - bad news for Quebec City.

[Pengwin7]

I think QC is still ahead of Seattle for consideration.
But I do believe they will get their teams in very, very different ways.

The NHL will want to get to 32 teams - because its just a more stable scheduling model.
But they need to get to 16 teams in both the East/West.

I think, ultimately, we'll see one team re-locate - which will be to QC, a team that could use a return history - as Winnipeg did.
And the NHL has to figure out WHO that team is.
QC will want to be in the East... and no team currently in the East is going to accept a shift to the West (too much travel, viewing times too late for fans).
This means that QC is unlikely to get in via "expansion". QC will have to wait for an Eastern team to belly-up and re-locate... but I think that will happen.

So - there's a waiting game for QC... but they are certainly first in line for re-location, especially if it is an Eastern team (FLA, CAR, NYI, NJ - being strongest four for consideration, IMO, in that order).
Arizona is always a re-location discussion team - but being in the West, doesn't solve the 16/16 issue.

And I think, ultimately, we'll see an expansion team in Seattle at whatever they (NHL ownership group/Bettman) set the fee... which they now have a great precedent with the $500m from Vegas.
But there's a waiting game for sure on whether the East will have a team financially hit the toilet.

The NHL will eventually probably get to a 4x8 NFL-type divisional model or a 8x4 NBA-type divisional model:
Pacific: VAN-EDM-CGY, WPG ....... ANA-LA-SJ, SEA
Central: ARI, VGK-COL-DAL ....... MIN-STL-CHI, NAS

Depending on travel, Seattle, Arizona, Winnipeg, and Nashville could all shift.


Arena planning + build takes about 3 years, though.
So 2020-2021 is earliest for Seattle.

Q: Will it happen, IMO?
A: I say yes. It felt very certain, to me, that Vegas was going to get a team. I think Seattle is a much more stable place than Vegas. Seattle has done a really good job supporting their WHL team. The arena sharing is a good model for just about every place not named Atlanta. And there is overflow fans from Vancouver - and I don't think Vancouver will feel threatened by this the way Toronto2 situation has been discussed.

[Axeman33]

As Kofax said, it helps. There is no chance if there's no arena so this is step one at the very least on their way to getting a NHL team.

[ericdaoust]

Seattle has a chance of landing the 32nd (expansion) team.

Quebec is too easy, unfortunately. They'll always be available so they'll be kept off to the side for a rainy day. If the situation in Carolina or Florida gets really bad suddenly, hello Quebec!

[2014olympicgold]

@P7. NBA is 6 divisions of 5. (3 per conference)
NHL is the only major league I thin that has 4 total divisions.

Sorry to nit pick. Great post otherwise. I always thought NHL knows QC will be a slam dunk so no real rush on getting them a team, it’s more of a bailout for a bad team. They want to catch a team who wants it NOW for the expansion (Seattle, Vegas), and try and cash in on hype. If they need to move a team because of financial issues dragging down the NHL, they know QC is there.

[Pengwin7]

@P7. NBA is 6 divisions of 5. (3 per conference)
NHL is the only major league I thin that has 4 total divisions.

Just testing you guys to keep you sharp.
I like to check in and see who most wants to nitpick me...
But you get points for attending to OP instead of simply chiming in to tell me I'm wrong!

Btw. What... you saying I don't follow the NBA closely... I mean there was four divisions... like... just a few years ago... right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003%E...304_NBA_season
ps. I'm a Pistons fan. My fandom ended shortly after the 2004 NBA championship, loss to Spurs in 2005, Darko, Allen Iverson trade, LeBron owns the East... and... I stopped caring.

[Godin]

...and the area, (GTA), that will guarantee sell outs for ever is being ignored. Such a shame really.

[2014olympicgold]

Just testing you guys to keep you sharp.
I like to check in and see who most wants to nitpick me...
But you get points for attending to OP instead of simply chiming in to tell me I'm wrong!

Btw. What... you saying I don't follow the NBA closely... I mean there was four divisions... like... just a few years ago... right?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003%E...304_NBA_season
ps. I'm a Pistons fan. My fandom ended shortly after the 2004 NBA championship, loss to Spurs in 2005, Darko, Allen Iverson trade, LeBron owns the East... and... I stopped caring.

Just do better next time

[LawMan]

I think QC is still ahead of Seattle for consideration.
But I do believe they will get their teams in very, very different ways.

The NHL will want to get to 32 teams - because its just a more stable scheduling model.
But they need to get to 16 teams in both the East/West.

I think, ultimately, we'll see one team re-locate - which will be to QC, a team that could use a return history - as Winnipeg did.
And the NHL has to figure out WHO that team is.
QC will want to be in the East... and no team currently in the East is going to accept a shift to the West (too much travel, viewing times too late for fans).
This means that QC is unlikely to get in via "expansion". QC will have to wait for an Eastern team to belly-up and re-locate... but I think that will happen.

So - there's a waiting game for QC... but they are certainly first in line for re-location, especially if it is an Eastern team (FLA, CAR, NYI, NJ - being strongest four for consideration, IMO, in that order).
Arizona is always a re-location discussion team - but being in the West, doesn't solve the 16/16 issue.

And I think, ultimately, we'll see an expansion team in Seattle at whatever they (NHL ownership group/Bettman) set the fee... which they now have a great precedent with the $500m from Vegas.
But there's a waiting game for sure on whether the East will have a team financially hit the toilet.

The NHL will eventually probably get to a 4x8 NFL-type divisional model or a 8x4 NBA-type divisional model:
Pacific: VAN-EDM-CGY, WPG ....... ANA-LA-SJ, SEA
Central: ARI, VGK-COL-DAL ....... MIN-STL-CHI, NAS

Depending on travel, Seattle, Arizona, Winnipeg, and Nashville could all shift.


Arena planning + build takes about 3 years, though.
So 2020-2021 is earliest for Seattle.

Q: Will it happen, IMO?
A: I say yes. It felt very certain, to me, that Vegas was going to get a team. I think Seattle is a much more stable place than Vegas. Seattle has done a really good job supporting their WHL team. The arena sharing is a good model for just about every place not named Atlanta. And there is overflow fans from Vancouver - and I don't think Vancouver will feel threatened by this the way Toronto2 situation has been discussed.

This is how I see it occurring as well. The timing of the arena build would work almost perfectly in my mind.
Vegas is coming this year and the NHL won't want to rush another expansion team immediately. a team in 2020-21 or 2021-22 (doesn't that sound like 15 years away???) would make sense.
Allow the Knights to get somewhat stable hopefully, have a chance to do a full, careful review of what went right and what went wrong with the expansion process.
Allow the NHL to get a solid ownership group in place, confirm the arena is done, or almost done, give a season of marketing to the team to build hype.

Then Seattle enters the league and joins the Pacific, one of Vegas or Arizona moves to the Central. I don't see the Jets moving to the Pacific because time zones are so important to the NHL regarding travel and TV viewership.
As soon as the league announced 4 divisions I thought it was apparent that 8 x 4 = 32 teams was the end game.

Also agree with everyone that QC is easy to tease and abuse and they'll come back begging for more. They are building an arena one way or another so they are always available for relocation. I think Bettman does everything in his power to ensure that any relocation occurs after the Seattle expansion. It's hard to argue your league is a great financial success with a franchise tag of $500m when you have teams being forced to relocate. The other issue with relocation is that Arizona can't move to the East. Carolina and maybe Florida would be fine relocations, with maybe a divisional re-alignment.


Long, long, term perhaps Seattle is added, Carolina goes to QC and then Arizona finds a home in Cleveland.

Given the NHL's current team locations and setup I'd say Seattle as team 32 is a looking pretty good.
I don't follow the NBA but does anyone know if these arena builders have anything in place to get an NBA team? I know the Supersonics left to Oklahoma City but don't know if there are any struggling teams financially looking to move to Seattle.
I find it hard to believe that this deal is being built on the hopes that a professional team will play in it.

[2014olympicgold]

...and the area, (GTA), that will guarantee sell outs for ever is being ignored. Such a shame really.

To bad no team could afford what "area rights" fees would be to give to the Leafs.

[rataylor22]

I actually think the opposite of Peng. I feel it's more likely that the owners in QC would want to pay an expansion fee than the second tenant in a Seattle building.

I think an Eastern team relocates to Seattle (relocation fee much lower than expansion fee, historically), plus theoretically a relocated team will be more competitive initially to build market support, with an expansion team immediately being approved for QC once the relocation to Seattle has been approved.

QC is for sure the league's back pocket fallback if a team needs to relocate before Seattle is ready, but if the league can hold off until Seattle is ready I think it's more likely to see a relocation to Seattle and subsequent expansion to QC.

[Godin]

To bad no team could afford what "area rights" fees would be to give to the Leafs.

I have harped on this before but I just think its disgusting and so arrogant that they can deprive hundreds of thousands, if not millions of true 'hockey fans' from attending hockey games because it's unaffordable or unattainable. Meanwhile, kids in places like Phoenix and Florida can attend hockey games when ever they want for basically what it would cost here for a couple of beers.

[rataylor22]

I have harped on this before but I just think its disgusting and so arrogant that they can deprive hundreds of thousands, if not millions of true 'hockey fans' from attending hockey games because it's unaffordable or unattainable. Meanwhile, kids in places like Phoenix and Florida can attend hockey games when ever they want for basically what it would cost here for a couple of beers.

You're basically disgusted by capitalism lol. It's simple supply and demand.

As for the Seattle arena, I'm sure the mayor being involved in a sex scandal and resigning within 4 hours of this initial announcement doesn't help things.