Neat Game-By-Game Pick 'em (fivethirtyeight.com)

[Pengwin7]

538 is one of my favourite overall websites.
I just entered their weekly riddler competition, fun/easy/interesting for anybody that digs numbers.

Anyways, just came across their "confidence" pick 'em for NFL games.
Looks super fun!
For those of you that THINK they know how to "confidently" make NFL picks (and who count themselves as "savvy bettors")... give this a try.
I'm going to enter weekly:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...dictions-game/


[Essentially you can win up to 25pts by betting on a favourite... or lose up to 50pts by missing a full confidence pick that game where the other team wins... or you can not pick the game and make 0pts either way... really neat.]

[PenguinHunter]

I wish I would have seen this before Week 1 started... this is awesome!

I am filling it out for the monday night games. and will be back for week 2!

Thanks P7.

[PenguinHunter]

P7... how have you fared so far in this pick em game?

i have a week 2 point total of 135.

[Pengwin7]

I'm having an excellent week, beating 538 this week.
I'm at +148.5 for the week... and 193.1 on the season. "That's better than 84% of players."

My only four misses this week was Rams, Chargers, Dallas, and Cinci.
I outpicked 538 going with TEN and ARI.

[PenguinHunter]

Nice work! I am at +135.3 for the week and total and +138.5 (total) I only saw it Monday in time for the Monday night games in Week 1.

Where do you see what percentage of players you are better than?

My misses this week were:

Green Bay - Bet close to 0 on it
Dallas - Bet close to 0
LA Chargers - - 19 points
Cincy - 6 points.

Thanks again for finding this!

[Pengwin7]

It may not show up on all browsers.
I use Firefox and there's a small bottom window that lists it, along with my name at right (and "Sign Out" option).

Try this link:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...dictions-game/
It should appear at bottom of your screen. (but not if you scroll too far down, then it disappears in favour of ads)

I'm at 64% for the Lions tonight.
I move the bar on every game, but left CIN, ATL, DAL at 57% (lowest picks).
I went full confidence (100%) on OAK.
And I went 87% (TB), 86% (CAR) and 78% (SEA), and 78% (KC)... though Seattle could've cost me/us/538 a doozy.

Eventually, it'll be the "upset" where people sliding the bar way too far are going to get hammered.

[PenguinHunter]

Got it to work! Thank you! 62% up on players after only play one week.

I'm at 50% for tonights game... waiting to determine if OBJ is playing or not. But even so I will only likely movie it 5-7% one way or the other.

I went full confidence on Oakland as well. Hard not to.

Carolina (93%)
Arizona (92%)
Seattle (89%)
Tampa (85%)

So quite similar there.

Washington (52%)
Kansas (56%)

It is going to be someone picking a 'for sure' game at 100% that is going to lose a lot of people a lot of points. Like you mentioned Seattle could have done to us this week.