Winston or Howard?

[oilspill23]

2QB league, 0.5 ppr, 10 team, H2H.

I was sure I was going to be keeping Wilson, Winston, Evans, and Brown.

But after reseaching, i feel that dropping Howard for nothing isnt a good idea. I habe the 2nd overall pick, and that sticks in every round since its a linear draft.

In this draft, i have the 2nd, 12th, 21st, and 22nd picks in the first 3 rounds.

Is it smarter to keep Howard and drop Winston? That means i could draft Fournette at 2, and potentially redraft Winston in Round 2, if he doesnt get taksn in the 1st, which is about a 50/50 chance as there are 4 teams that are keeping 2QBs at the moment.

I guess the question is, how valuable is Winston in a 2QB keeper league, vs. Jordan Howard?

Keep in mind im in it to win this year.

[rataylor22]

I would rather have Wilson, Fournette, Howard, Evans, Brown, over Wilson, Winston, Howard, Evans, Brown. In RD1, I would take Howard over Fournette if you dropped him lol. I assume you know who is going #1? If 4/10 teams are keeping 2 QBs, that means 14 QBs are being kept. I don't forsee Winston being taken in RD1, and if he is there will be other guys who will give you just as much.

[PenguinHunter]

QB is such a deep position this year... I would keep Howard and draft a QB in round 2 or 3. I can definitely count 20 QBs I would be willing to own in a 2 QB league.

I think Palmer has a great year and is probably available late.
Same with Manning, i think he will be better as well.

[rataylor22]

The question I always ask in situations like this is pretend there are no keepers. I mean it's a keep 4, not a dynasty, so it doesn't really change much. In a full redraft, Wilson, Howard, Evans, and Brown are all getting drafted before Winston is. So that's your answer really. Brown, Evans, Howard, even Wilson are all top 3 round picks, even in a 10 team 2 QB league. Winston is like a RD 6 or 7 pick.

[dejeanneret]

Winston moves up considerably in a 2 QB league; I doubt he'd be there in round 6 or 7. I think he's going to have a huge year -- that offensive is positively stacked, particularly on the receiving side.

Here though, I agree with keeping Howard. Maybe Winston is there in round 2 or 3. But even if he isn't, like others have said, QB is pretty deep this year with guys who will produce.

[rataylor22]

Winston moves up considerably in a 2 QB league; I doubt he'd be there in round 6 or 7. I think he's going to have a huge year -- that offensive is positively stacked, particularly on the receiving side.

Here though, I agree with keeping Howard. Maybe Winston is there in round 2 or 3. But even if he isn't, like others have said, QB is pretty deep this year with guys who will produce.

The obvious correlation to this is the entire Tampa Bay coaching staff saying they want to drastically scale back how much Winston throws each game and turn him into more of a game manager. It's words people want to ignore, but the offense already started doing it last season and Winston's production suffered accordingly.

[dejeanneret]

The obvious correlation to this is the entire Tampa Bay coaching staff saying they want to drastically scale back how much Winston throws each game and turn him into more of a game manager. It's words people want to ignore, but the offense already started doing it last season and Winston's production suffered accordingly.

Yeah, I'm not buying it.

They have one of the best young ball-hawking, red zone beastly WRs in the game (Evans).
One of the better young pass catching TEs in the game (Brate).
One of the top TE prospects to have entered the league in years (Howard).
Brought in one of the best deep ball receivers in recent history this off-season (Jackson).
Their starting tailback (Martin) is suspended the first four games of the year, and has been inconsistent at best in his career.
And their current back up tailback (Sims) is a better receiving back than he is a rushing back.

I still say Winston has a huge year.

[rataylor22]

Yeah, I'm not buying it.

They have one of the best young ball-hawking, red zone beastly WRs in the game (Evans).
One of the better young pass catching TEs in the game (Brate).
One of the top TE prospects to have entered the league in years (Howard).
Brought in one of the best deep ball receivers in recent history this off-season (Jackson).
Their starting tailback (Martin) is suspended the first four games of the year, and has been inconsistent at best in his career.
And their current back up tailback (Sims) is a better receiving back than he is a rushing back.

I still say Winston has a huge year.

That's fine. I mean I'll take the coaching staff's words AND actions over your opinion, but to each their own. The coaching staff literally said on hard knocks this week, "You take too many chances and try to much to win the game on your own. We have a great defence this year and a great team, we don't need you to win the game for us, we need you to not lose the game for us." But sure, because we want Winston to have a huge year, I'm sure he will, just because we want him to.

[dejeanneret]

That's fine. I mean I'll take the coaching staff's words AND actions over your opinion, but to each their own. The coaching staff literally said on hard knocks this week, "You take too many chances and try to much to win the game on your own. We have a great defence this year and a great team, we don't need you to win the game for us, we need you to not lose the game for us." But sure, because we want Winston to have a huge year, I'm sure he will, just because we want him to.

Wait ... you mean to tell me that an NFL coaching staff said in the preseason that they want to limit turnovers? Did any of them also say that they'd like to take fewer penalties and avoid the injury bug?

You needn't accept my opinion for anything. I'm really not asking you to. But coaching staffs say and do a ton during the preseason that I'm not convinced should be taken literally at face value -- especially when in front of cameras.

For what it's worth, Joe Mixon is also the team's 3rd string running back according to the depth chart released by the Bengals coaching staff. Draft accordingly.

[rataylor22]

Sigh. Whatever man. You're what I like to call an exploitable advantage. That's where we get our edge in fantasy football.

[dejeanneret]

LOL. Appreciate your concern, man. I tend to do OK for myself in fantasy football, despite having the audacity to form and follow my own opinions on things every once in a while after considering the available information and perspectives of others.

[rataylor22]

I guess we should expect Bortles to throw 40 times per game, and Fournette to get very few carries, because that is what Jacksonville has done in the past and it doesn't matter what the coaches have said in the pre-season.

Jacksonville was 4th in the league in passing attempts per game, and 24th in the league in rushing attempts per game, and because what coaches say doesn't matter, we should expect that to hold going forward. Ergo, do not draft Fournette expecting a heavy workload, because what coaches say doesn't matter.

[dejeanneret]

I guess we should expect Bortles to throw 40 times per game, and Fournette to get very few carries, because that is what Jacksonville has done in the past and it doesn't matter what the coaches have said in the pre-season.

Good grief. Let's see what Doug Marrone actually said, shall we:

Marrone, asked how many times a game quarterback Blake Bortles will ideally throw next season, said his answer was simple: “Zero.” He said he wasn’t joking about this, and he wasn’t smiling when he said it. “For me, I’d like to run the ball every play,” Marrone said. “I want to go back to the old way. I want to change the game.”

https://blackandteal.com/2017/06/10/...s-passes-2017/

I'll take the over on the Jags passing zero times per game. Let me know what odds you want for taking the coach at his word.

[rataylor22]

Good grief. Let's see what Doug Marrone actually said, shall we:



https://blackandteal.com/2017/06/10/...s-passes-2017/

I'll take the over on the Jags passing zero times per game. Let me know what odds you want for taking the coach at his word.

Exactly, I'm agreeing with you. Based on what the coach said, I expect their run/pass splits to be identical to last season. I agree with you. Jacksonville has a good chance to lead the league in passing attempts this year.

[dejeanneret]

Jacksonville was 4th in the league in passing attempts per game, and 24th in the league in rushing attempts per game, and because what coaches say doesn't matter, we should expect that to hold going forward. Ergo, do not draft Fournette expecting a heavy workload, because what coaches say doesn't matter.

By the way. Different regime in Jacksonville this year with Coughlin and Marrone. Different personnel too with a #4 overall pick spent specifically to draft a perceived elite workhorse running back in Fournette.

I wonder what, if anything, that could have to do with a change in offensive philosophy year over year??