Am I deep enough on D to compete?

[RizzeeDizzee]

This is a great time to buy low on Ekblad.

I guess I rate him higher than most, because I see him being a 40+ defender for a long long time.

Where can you buy low on Ekblad? People see his age and his status as a former #1 overall pick and will still likely insist on a top price for him. He's the worst kind of player to acquire right now because his perceived value (and thus actual cost) is so far above his actual value (and what his cost should be).

[stimperi]

While I certainly agree, that Yandle is a good offensive player, I strongly believe that Ekblad will eventually outproduce him on the PP and force the Panthers' hand. And while your writing about Yandles misfortunes is certainly true, one should also take a look at Ekblad's underlying numbers from last season, he was not getting the bounces either. And his shot volume was insanely high. Its not like he is not more than capable as an offensive defenseman either.

[Mr. Guru]

Some will see his regression along with Yanldes improvement in Florida and be able to buy low, I would think.

Certainly buying lower than ever.

[RizzeeDizzee]

While I certainly agree, that Yandle is a good offensive player, I strongly believe that Ekblad will eventually outproduce him on the PP and force the Panthers' hand. And while your writing about Yandles misfortunes is certainly true, one should also take a look at Ekblad's underlying numbers from last season, he was not getting the bounces either. And his shot volume was insanely high. Its not like he is not more than capable as an offensive defenseman either.

If by eventually you mean in 3-4 years, then I agree. Otherwise, I think you are a strong believer in Ekblad and are finding ways to justify your viewpoint, which I suppose is fine. But where are the numbers and data to back up your sentiments?

[RizzeeDizzee]

Some will see his regression along with Yanldes improvement in Florida and be able to buy low, I would think.

Certainly buying lower than ever.

Quite possibly Ekblad's price will drop a bit this season if he continues to fall short of lofty expectations. But look at MacKinnon - he's still quite costly despite his struggles since his rookie campaign. That first overall draft spot lingers in people's minds for a long, long time.

[Axeman33]

While I certainly agree, that Yandle is a good offensive player, I strongly believe that Ekblad will eventually outproduce him on the PP and force the Panthers' hand. And while your writing about Yandles misfortunes is certainly true, one should also take a look at Ekblad's underlying numbers from last season, he was not getting the bounces either. And his shot volume was insanely high. Its not like he is not more than capable as an offensive defenseman either.

Ya, maybe someday he'll reach the level of someone like Kris Letang if he's lucky. I doubt it, but maybe.

[stimperi]

Fortunately I am no strangers to the numbers either.

On 5v5 hockey, when Ekblad was on the ice, the Panthers generated 32,5 shots/60, compared to Yandle`s 31,5/60. Not a big difference here, but when we get to the personal level, we see the picture clearer. Ekblad himself generated 7,8 shots, when Yandle shot 4,8 times per 60 minutes of hockey. There is a big difference about driving the offense between these two. While Yandle`s on-ice shooting% was a low one at 6,19, the award for the worse puck luck goes to Ekblad with 4,92. Yandle`s PDO -number evens out nicely at 1.000, where Ekblad`s clearly shows signs of bad luck with 0.970. Ekblad spent more minutes with Yandle than other defensemen, so the difference here is even more obvious. Yandle might be one-dimensional as an offensive defenseman - but Ekblad generates still clearly more offense than Yandle.

But the PP is another story, and it might be a little premature to suppose that Ekblad takes the reins in PP1 just yet, even though I suggested that he eventually would. But the overall skill level should prevail here also, in the end.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Fortunately I am no strangers to the numbers either.

On 5v5 hockey, when Ekblad was on the ice, the Panthers generated 32,5 shots/60, compared to Yandle`s 31,5/60. Not a big difference here, but when we get to the personal level, we see the picture clearer. Ekblad himself generated 7,8 shots, when Yandle shot 4,8 times per 60 minutes of hockey. There is a big difference about driving the offense between these two. While Yandle`s on-ice shooting% was a low one at 6,19, the award for the worse puck luck goes to Ekblad with 4,92. Yandle`s PDO -number evens out nicely at 1.000, where Ekblad`s clearly shows signs of bad luck with 0.970. Ekblad spent more minutes with Yandle than other defensemen, so the difference here is even more obvious. Yandle might be one-dimensional as an offensive defenseman - but Ekblad generates still clearly more offense than Yandle.

But the PP is another story, and it might be a little premature to suppose that Ekblad takes the reins in PP1 just yet, even though I suggested that he eventually would. But the overall skill level should prevail here also, in the end.

Solid analysis. One thing you left out though was IPP (i.e., the share of points one receives on goals scored while on the ice). Ekblad's has held steady the last three years - 38.7%, 38.7% and 38.9%. Meanwhile, as I noted in my post, Yandle's nosedived. Also, let's say maybe Ekblad gets a bump in scoring - but keep in mind he was at 21 points in 69 games, so even a 33% higher scoring rate would only put him at 28 points in 69 games, for an 82 game scoring rate of only 33 points.

Also, Yandle scored 52+ points in three separate seasons before turning 28. Since 2000-01, only four other defensemen have done that, with three (Dustin Byfuglien, Sergei Gonchar, Mike Green) having played at least two seasons since turning 30. Of the three, only Green (who still isn't 32 and had injury issues derail him) failed to reach 50+ at least twice after turning 30.

[Axeman33]

Lets not forget that Yandle is a model citizen when it comes to staying healthy. The guy is a rock.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Lets not forget that Yandle is a model citizen when it comes to staying healthy. The guy is a rock.

Excellent point - that's why he's points-only gold. He might not hit or do things that franchise d-men do, but the goal is to get points and nothing else, so more power to him.

[NikW71]

Also, Yandle scored 52+ points in three separate seasons before turning 28. Since 2000-01, only four other defensemen have done that, with three (Dustin Byfuglien, Sergei Gonchar, Mike Green) having played at least two seasons since turning 30. Of the three, only Green (who still isn't 32 and had injury issues derail him) failed to reach 50+ at least twice after turning 30.

Missed the biggest name on that list ... Karlsson.

Regarding Yandle, I think he will bounce back nicely this year. It seems it takes some players a little while to acclimate to their new surroundings (Kessel comes to mind and Hall could be another candidate if he turns it around this year. Maybe Yandle falls in that category.) Florida was also a dumpster fire for injuries to start the year along with the coaching/management mess. Maybe he finds his groove this year.

[stimperi]

This was more popular than I thought. Good discussion, thanks for the input

[RizzeeDizzee]

Missed the biggest name on that list ... Karlsson.

I didn't miss him - he's just not 30 years old yet.

[NikW71]

I didn't miss him - he's just not 30 years old yet.

My bad ... when reading it seemed your query was based on 52+ points before their 28th Bday. Didn't realize it was connected to what they do after. However we are both in agreement that Yandle should be fine this year in FLA.