Am I deep enough on D to compete?

[RizzeeDizzee]

I'll gladly bow to local knowledge, but Really? The AHL? Even after that playoff performance? I just can't see him being sent back to Providence for anything less than making a pass at Bergeron's wife.

I Love Chara, but he looked to be fading by the day last season, which makes me think McAvoy is a lock for the 2nd unit. We saw how Boston's blue line got decimated in the post-season. If something happens to Krug, McAvoy could be their offensive go-to guy again. I like Carlo and Miller, but I don't think their offensive upside is nearly as goodbye as McAvoy's.

It's really just a crazy what-if scenario, but especially by the 2018 season, dont you think that he could be a serious threat from the blue line? For this season, I do think he could outscore Zdeno.

I really like this kid, and I'll go so far as to make my long-shot, dark horse prediction for the 2017-2018 season:

I think McAvoy can be the defensive name mentioned in the Calder discussion.
I don't think he could win, but I think he could be the best defensive rookie this year.

He has played six NHL games. Six. I get that he has a pedigree and looked great. Plus the Bs could use him. But don't get carried away here. And you act like second PP minutes are a huge prize, when on most teams - including Boston - they're not.

[Axeman33]

The Bruins D has enough holes in it that McAvoy should stick around the whole season. I'd just temper expectations for him.

Ekblad, like Letang, will find his way to the IR. If you can move Ekblad for Letang, I'd make that attempt. Just throwing that out there.

[stimperi]

Ekblad sure has some injury concerns based on a couple of concussions / neck traumas last year, but I would still hesitate to put him in the same category as Letang. Ekblad has missed a total of 19 games in his three-year career. Letang has averaged 26 missed games per season for the past six years.

[Axeman33]

Im not saying Ekblad is as injured as Letang YET, but even if Letang is injured more than Ekblad he's still a far better fantasy asset. Even if Ekblad played all 82 games (which we know he won't), Letang still whips his ass for fantasy purposes.

What Im saying is I'd take Letang for 60 games over Ekblad for 82 and Ekblad wont play 82.

I realize games played is important to you, but guys like McAvoy can easily slide in for Letang when he gets hurt and I still expect you to come out ahead fantasy wise.

[Cypher11]

I agree that Letang in 60 is better than Ekblad for 80 games, but I'm starting to wonder how long Letang can keep up this injured career?

I don't have any idea, it's more of a wonder out-loud, but he has been hurt so much so many times, he is a level beyond bandaid boy.

I wonder if trading Ekblad and a prospect for a different dman might be better here. I think McAvoy is definitely worth keeping as a sleeper keeper. I agree McAvoy's NHL sample size is crazy small, but his last 2 years at every level has just been so...I dunno...meteoric? I just think it isn't going to take him long to show us what he can do.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Ekblad sure has some injury concerns based on a couple of concussions / neck traumas last year, but I would still hesitate to put him in the same category as Letang. Ekblad has missed a total of 19 games in his three-year career. Letang has averaged 26 missed games per season for the past six years.

You're right that Ekblad is worse, but not for the reasons you suggest. Ekblad is worse because unlike Letang he's not even his team's unquestioned guy for rearguard production. You are both overthinking this and underthinking it, making it a worst of all worlds situation.

[stimperi]

But he most absolutely will be the top guy, unless further concussions come in the way. You should also consider the true talent level of a healthy Ekblad, as shown in his prospect pedigree and draft status, and also in his first two seasons in the NHL, as a teenager.

[Mr. Guru]

Besides Carlo, McAvoy is the only rightie defender that can move the puck and skate it out.

Id be shocked if he didnt play the majority of the year in the NHL.

[RizzeeDizzee]

But he most absolutely will be the top guy, unless further concussions come in the way. You should also consider the true talent level of a healthy Ekblad, as shown in his prospect pedigree and draft status, and also in his first two seasons in the NHL, as a teenager.

Two words - Keith Yandle. You are confusing Ekblad's real world importance and skill with his fantasy role and likely production. I wrote an entire article on this in the just released fantasy guide; it would be worth your while to buy/read it.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Besides Carlo, McAvoy is the only rightie defender that can move the puck and skate it out.

Id be shocked if he didnt play the majority of the year in the NHL.

Me too. I only raised the 35 AHL games idea to help illustrate how much of a longshot I think it would be for him to score 35+ points this season, namely a longer shot than him somehow playing 35 AHL games. Sorry about the confusion.

[Mr. Guru]

This is a great time to buy low on Ekblad.

I guess I rate him higher than most, because I see him being a 40+ defender for a long long time.

[Mr. Guru]

Me too. I only raised the 35 AHL games idea to help illustrate how much of a longshot I think it would be for him to score 35+ points this season, namely a longer shot than him somehow playing 35 AHL games. Sorry about the confusion.

Yeah. I can see about 25 NHL points this upcoming season.

[stimperi]

Two words - Keith Yandle. You are confusing Ekblad's real world importance and skill with his fantasy role and likely production. I wrote an entire article on this in the just released fantasy guide; it would be worth your while to buy/read it.

Exactly, Keith Yandle, not - say - Kevin Shattenkirk. If Ekblad can't pass him in PP1 deployment, it will be considered a failure on his development.

[Mr. Guru]

Exactly, Keith Yandle, not - say - Kevin Shattenkirk. If Ekblad can't pass him in PP1 deployment, it will be considered a failure on his development.

Why?

Yandle is a top puck mover in the league.

Ekblad is 21 years old.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Exactly, Keith Yandle, not - say - Kevin Shattenkirk. If Ekblad can't pass him in PP1 deployment, it will be considered a failure on his development.

I'm sorry, but you just don't get it. Yandle not only is signed to a huge contract, but he's one of the most one dimensional players in this league whose primary purpose is to help create offense. This is from what I wrote about Yandle back in the Spring:

Poolies (not to mention Panthers brass) expected more from Yandle this season. After all, he’s only 30; and from 2010-11 through 2014-15 he had the second most total points among all NHL defensemen. Yet this season he tallied just 41 points, landing him 21st in rearguard scoring. Can he no longer be counted upon for top production? Let’s see what the data tells us.

For 2016-17, Yandle tallied a point on only 37% of goals scored while on the ice at 5x5, which is very low considering only once in the previous seven seasons had he been below 40% and in more than half he was above 46%. Also, he fell victim to particularly bad luck in 5x5 team shooting %, where his rate was a dismal 6.19%, which pales in comparison to his 8%+ rate in four of the past eight seasons and 7.4-7.9% in two of the other four.

Moreover, Yandle’s bread and butter has always been the power play, where this season he was victimized by unsustainably bad luck as well. His 5x4 team shooting % was only 10.29%, or well below the 12.6%+ rate he had in five of his previous nine seasons, plus lower than the 11.1%+ rate in three of his other four prior seasons. And he nabbed a point on just 60% of goals scored while on the ice at 5x4, which is his lowest rate since 2011-12 and far below his 72.8% average over his past four seasons.

Could some of this be due to age? Perhaps. But Yandle’s game relies on skill and finesse, not so much speed or power. As for concerns his fat contract is making him complacent, while we can never rule that out completely we also must remember that before becoming a Panther Yandle had already made over $30M during his career, as opposed to being a player cashing in for the first time.

What was apparently at play with Yandle were several separate instances of what I’d label as somewhat bad luck. On their own, each one of these might’ve cost him only a couple of points; however, when summed together, and coupled with Florida’s team struggles (down 11.6% in goals versus 2015-16), they led to Yandle unsustainably losing many points. That’s why I see his 2016-17 as being TOO COLD; I’m assigning him a rating of 1.25 and see him as a very good bet for 50+ points next season.