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Thread: Rookie Class 2017

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    Default Rookie Class 2017

    Which of the rookies this year will have the best immediate impact, and which has the ability to have the best long term impact?

    I have the 2nd overall pick in both of my keeper leagues and do not have any RBs in either. Let's say there was nobody else but rookies to draft, which would you go for?
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    OF: M. Trout
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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    I would assume that guys like Fournette, Davis and McCaffery will offer the most out of the gate.

    Guys like Mixon, Kamara, Hunt, and Ross could all be excellent options longer term once they settle in.
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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    Dalvin Cook if he can stay clean would be a steal later on in the draft for you. He's O-Ranked in Yahoo! at 57, but he’s getting drafted at 79ish, behind Blount, Gillslee, Prosch (Houston), Dreamius Smith (Pitts), and Eddie Lacy. And with Latavius Murray with ankle issues, and no timetable for a return, AND likely to miss camp, the door is open for Dalvin Cook.

    But he's not the top rookie, but he's going to be good based on ADP right now.
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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    Some rambling thoughts:

    It really depends on what you need. But as a general matter, my take is that this year's rookie crop is heavy on quality RBs, very light on WRs (even Corey Davis, who I think people are overvaluing), slightly above trash at QB, and quite good in quality TEs.

    So with that said, I think the top 4 or 5 players in a rookie draft are all RBs. Recognizing that some people may quibble with the order (I keep flip flopping on numbers 4 and 5), here's the order in which I'd currently draft them:

    Fournette
    Mixon
    McCaffrey
    Hunt
    Cook

    Of that group, I think Fournette has the most immediate impact. I actually now put Cook second in terms of immediate impact given the fact that Murray and McKinnon are already banged up (i.e., I do think Cook now has the firm edge to be the Week 1 starter -- I can't say that for Mixon or McCaffrey). Longer term, I'd put them in the order listed above. As mentioned however, I still waver a bit on Hunt/Cook or Cook/Hunt.

    Next, I think is O.J. Howard.

    Yes, rookie TEs (including, quite probably Howard) rarely have any impact as rookies. Yes, Howard even has to contend with Cameron Brate off the bat. Yes, Mike Evans is going to merit a ton of targets even when Howard hits his stride. But long term, Howard's 6'6" with 4.5 wheels and a really natural pass catcher. He's on a really talented young team and projects as good as anyone as being the next truly dominant TE for years to come (I've heard/read some industry experts who already have Howard ranked #2 at TE for dynasty value). There tends to be lesser demand and need for TEs than RBs, which is why I have Howard in the 5-6 range. In any event, I'd not sleep on him for Corey Davis or the next group of RBs. I could even understand if some folks move him into the top 4.
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    D: Dobson/Trouba(IR)/Mintyukov/Gostisbehere/Martinez/Edvinsson/York/Gudas(IR)/Tanev
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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    Dalvin Cook in a heartbeat over the others, he will have the #1 spot locked down. Three down NFL back.
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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    Fournette is going to get every chance to make an immediate impact and I think he will do very well.

    McCaffrey, there is so much coming out of Carolina that they are making it sound like he will be a PPR beast right away. Especially cause other teams won't be able to double team him and 'scout' Newton.

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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Bazz View Post
    Dalvin Cook in a heartbeat over the others, he will have the #1 spot locked down. Three down NFL back.
    Interesting. Just to confirm, does that mean you'd select Cook #1 of all the rookie RBs? Not sure I've heard someone put him atop the list yet.

    Have to admit though, the fluff reports from camp have me paying attention and we'll probably see his ADP continue to rise as draft season approaches:

    Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said second-round RB Dalvin Cook has impressed his teammates during camp.
    "The first thing the veteran players I’ve talked to about him say is, ‘This guy gets it,'" Zimmer said. "They see him out there on the field with the other guys, and it’s like, ‘There’s something different about this guy, the way he runs, accelerates, the creases he can get to.’" It is high praise from a group accustomed to watching Adrian Peterson practice, and it suggests the team is happy to let the rookie lead the backfield this year, a reality which becomes more likely with each practice Latavius Murray (ankle) misses. Perhaps headed for a workhorse role, Cook is a good upside pick in the fifth round.
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    W: Ovechkin/Toffoli/Necas/Giroux/E.Kane/K.Johnson(IR)/Schmaltz/Bjorkstrand/Drouin
    D: Dobson/Trouba(IR)/Mintyukov/Gostisbehere/Martinez/Edvinsson/York/Gudas(IR)/Tanev
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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    If they're standard scoring formats and you are in need of immediate help at RB then Fournette and Mixon in that order. I view Fournette has a highvolume RB typethat will provide the high floor to stabilize a roster. Mixon has the better long term value of the two and is far more dynamic a RB than Fournette. Mixon will win you weekly matchups and is my first selection over Fournette in PPR leagues.

    Depends on your other keepers and the risk they carry. Personally, I'd go for Mixon in either format. I'm not afraid of CIN OL either. Mixon is that good + all the other weapons in that Bengals offense will keep defenses honest. Defenses matching up against Bortles will test his arm and load up on 8 man fronts. Jags have a defense that will keep games tight and low scoring. Not sure how many scoring opportunities there will be for Fournette in year one.

    Remember....rookies seldom make a significant fantasy impact in their first year.

    EDIT: as far as Cook is concerned. That cat has more off-field red flags than Mixon, can't push a pile to save his life so his RZ opportunities are an unknown at this point especially given that MIN OL, and he has a history of shoulder injuries. I have him pegged as a bust. BUT he does present as great value basedon his current ADP as 2014OG mentioned.
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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Bomm Bastic View Post
    If they're standard scoring formats and you are in need of immediate help at RB then Fournette and Mixon in that order. I view Fournette has a highvolume RB typethat will provide the high floor to stabilize a roster. Mixon has the better long term value of the two and is far more dynamic a RB than Fournette. Mixon will win you weekly matchups and is my first selection over Fournette in PPR leagues.

    Depends on your other keepers and the risk they carry. Personally, I'd go for Mixon in either format. I'm not afraid of CIN OL either. Mixon is that good + all the other weapons in that Bengals offense will keep defenses honest. Defenses matching up against Bortles will test his arm and load up on 8 man fronts. Jags have a defense that will keep games tight and low scoring. Not sure how many scoring opportunities there will be for Fournette in year one.

    Remember....rookies seldom make a significant fantasy impact in their first year.

    EDIT: as far as Cook is concerned. That cat has more off-field red flags than Mixon, can't push a pile to save his life so his RZ opportunities are an unknown at this point especially given that MIN OL, and he has a history of shoulder injuries. I have him pegged as a bust. BUT he does present as great value basedon his current ADP as 2014OG mentioned.
    In one league, my keepers are: Wilson, Winston, Brown, Evans-- I'm highly competitive in this one
    In the other, they are: Manning, Cooper, AJ Green, K. Allen-- I'm in rebuild mode here.

    Both are 2 QB leagues. I have no RB keepers in either so I need to start thinking about long term guys. Seems like Fournette and Mixon are the most talented. Mccaffery and Cook are an interesting thought, though I'm looking for guys that can help this year, and for years to come. Depending who becomes available at draft time, I might not take any of these guys (mistake??)... Or perhaps wait to see if Fournette/Mixon/Cook/Mccaffery fall into the 2nd/3rd round of the draft. There's a small chance M. Thomas lands in the draft in both leagues-- would I be stupid not to take him over these guys even if I'm WR heavy??

    I love the way Fournette plays, but hate where he landed. Mixon seems destined to take over the backfield after this year... Both are great, and tough options to think about. Can i go wrong?
    10 Team H2H Baseball- Cats

    R, HR, RBI, BB, SB, AVG, XBH
    W, ERA, SV, K WHIP, QS

    C: D. Jansen
    1B: P. Goldschmidt
    2B: J. Villar
    3B: E. Suarez
    SS: J. Peraza
    OF: M. Trout
    OF: G. Stanton
    OF: A. Benintendi
    UTIL: G. Springer
    UTIL: J. Gallo
    P: T. Bauer
    P: Z. Wheeler
    RP: T. Glasnow
    RP: K. Maeda
    P: G. Marquez
    P: L. Castillo
    P: S. Bieber
    P: C. McHugh

    Bench: J. Profar, T. White, M. Smith, C. Martinez (SP), G. Holland

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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by oilspill23 View Post
    In one league, my keepers are: Wilson, Winston, Brown, Evans-- I'm highly competitive in this one
    In the other, they are: Manning, Cooper, AJ Green, K. Allen-- I'm in rebuild mode here.

    Both are 2 QB leagues. I have no RB keepers in either so I need to start thinking about long term guys. Seems like Fournette and Mixon are the most talented. Mccaffery and Cook are an interesting thought, though I'm looking for guys that can help this year, and for years to come. Depending who becomes available at draft time, I might not take any of these guys (mistake??)... Or perhaps wait to see if Fournette/Mixon/Cook/Mccaffery fall into the 2nd/3rd round of the draft. There's a small chance M. Thomas lands in the draft in both leagues-- would I be stupid not to take him over these guys even if I'm WR heavy??

    I love the way Fournette plays, but hate where he landed. Mixon seems destined to take over the backfield after this year... Both are great, and tough options to think about. Can i go wrong?
    I do think it's hard to go wrong here.

    But based on the number of keepers and your need for RBs, I think a good strategy here (if possible) is to keep an open mind as to all possibilities after seeing who's been dropped and explore trading back once you (and others) know who's available.

    If a top notch RB is dropped for whatever reason, by all means take him. But I'm not sure I'd be thrilled using the #1 overall for any of the rookie RBs in a keep 4 given the inherent uncertainty involved with each of them. If you have no other choice, by all means do so. But I'd much rather trade down a little in the first round, grab the best back then available -- and depending on who's dropped and how far you trade back, it wouldn't shock me if one of Fournette or Mixon is still sitting there -- and then have an extra high'ish pick in my pocket to continue building depth.

    With the Thomas example, I think a good case could be made if a player like him is dropped that he should go quite high in the draft. But that makes sense for a team with a more balanced set of keepers; not one like yours where you're already well off at WR but starved at RB (it'd leave you, what, 19 - 23 picks before again having the opportunity to take your first RB when, quite likely, the top 12-15 RBs were already kept and unavailable -- that could be dicey). That's especially true in league 1 if you start only 2 WRs, and in league 2 even you start 3 WRs.
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    G, A, PPP, SOG, BS, +/-, GAA, W+OTL, SV%


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    W: Ovechkin/Toffoli/Necas/Giroux/E.Kane/K.Johnson(IR)/Schmaltz/Bjorkstrand/Drouin
    D: Dobson/Trouba(IR)/Mintyukov/Gostisbehere/Martinez/Edvinsson/York/Gudas(IR)/Tanev
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    Default Re: Rookie Class 2017

    Here’s a quick article on McCaffrey out deking Luke Kuechly on a 1on1 drill. Once in space with the ball this kid is going to do damage if he’s able to escape a top 3 coverage LB.

    https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/13...te-at-practice
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    C: Horvat, Trocheck
    LW: J. Robertson, Byfield (C), Guenther
    RW: Pavelski (C), Giroux (C), Svechnikov (LW)
    D: Fox, Makar, Bouchard, Morrissey, Gudas
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