Mariota or Winston Keeper

[oilspill23]

Standard settings for QBs

Which would you prefer moving forward? I have Eli manning as a keeper and would love to upgrade to one of these guys, both will cost the same as the owner has both of them.

[2014olympicgold]

Better Pass Protection: Mariota
Better Run Game: Mariota
Better Pass-Catchers: Winston
Better Scheme: Mariota (only because Mariota has been in his current one longer)
Better Talent: Personally I think Winston is better
More Freedom: Winston

In my league we have a bigger than normal Sack Negative, so Winston in my league will likely be worse, but in a standard league they are VERY close, but I’m taking Winston based on his pass-catchers. Winston has the higher ceiling, but lower floor than Mariota in YR3 I think.

[TheWhale]

No matter which direction you go in, they are both upgrades on Eli. Last year from week 5-12 no other player scored more points in fantasy than Mariota (as per Matthew Berry's 100 Facts). He has a solid O line, a top tier run game and improved weapons at receiver (Decker is a steal at current price). He's my choice.

What does your roster and league set up look like now and is it 6 points for every TD thrown? I'm having a hard time figuring out why Eli is a keeper for you.

[PenguinHunter]

This is a very tight decision and I think you can't go wrong with either option.

If it is a keeper league I would be inclined to go with Mariota... I think he will be more consistent year to year. There will be years where Winston majorly outperforms Mariota, but there will also be years where Winston under performs Mariota.

I think Winston career will mimic Newtons, great year, sub-par year, and back and forth and hard to predict.

[oilspill23]

No matter which direction you go in, they are both upgrades on Eli. Last year from week 5-12 no other player scored more points in fantasy than Mariota (as per Matthew Berry's 100 Facts). He has a solid O line, a top tier run game and improved weapons at receiver (Decker is a steal at current price). He's my choice.

What does your roster and league set up look like now and is it 6 points for every TD thrown? I'm having a hard time figuring out why Eli is a keeper for you.

10 team league, H2H, Standard scoring (6 points for TD throw), KEEP 4

My roster just isn't that good as it stands. I have Eli, Cooper, AJ Green, K. Allen. I have the 2nd overall pick, and the owner wants that plus a keeper (probably Allen).

[dejeanneret]

10 team league, H2H, Standard scoring (6 points for TD throw), KEEP 4

My roster just isn't that good as it stands. I have Eli, Cooper, AJ Green, K. Allen. I have the 2nd overall pick, and the owner wants that plus a keeper (probably Allen).

Yeah, I wouldn't do this. Assuming you play only 1 QB, that's far too much for either player in my view -- especially in a 10 team keep 4.

It would make no sense whatsoever for that other GM to keep both Mariota and Winston. And he's realistically got 2 or 3 possible trading partners here max (assuming it's a 1 QB league). Given the limited keeper, the teams that own Rodgers, Luck, Wilson, Newton, Ryan, Brady, maybe Dak and Carr -- I can't see them making a serious play for either Mariota or Winston.

Also, what are your starting positional requirements? I'm thinking that I'd much rather have Eli, Allen and ? at 2nd overall than Mariota or Winston. Coupled with the fact that it's highly likely that you'll be able to draft Mariota or Winston (or an equivalent) in any event and without having to use your 2nd overall to do so, I'd tell the other GM to try again on his asking price.

[TheWhale]

In a 10 teamer, Eli is a backup. You should consider just dropping him and go offer your 2nd round pick (not 2nd overall) for a fringe keeper, if you don't already have one of your own

[oilspill23]

It is a 2QB league, so we start two.

Sorry I should've mentioned that.

[Brosive]

It is a 2QB league, so we start two.

Sorry I should've mentioned that.

Even in a 2QB league, its only a keep 4. Do teams usually keep 2 QBs? I'm guessing other managers will be forced to drop a QB better than Eli. I would use my second overall pick to get the best QB available (while keeping Allen)

[2014olympicgold]

i rather keep Allen and the 42nd best player theoretically than get one of those QBs.

In my 1QB league (so bit different) we’re a keep 4 or 5 and forfeit your 1^st round pick, round 1 went as:
6 teams chose to keep 5, so pick 1 was the “7^th in the round”:
Round 1:
Elliot, Moncrief, Hill, DeMarco Murray. All solid but Hill (I picked him, facepalm)
Round 2:
Stewart, Roesthlisberger, Baldwin, Benjamin, J.Matthews, Lockett, Fitzgerald, Langford, Bernard, Kelce.

In a 2QB league more WR/RB/TE will be dropped and you can build your team there and pick up a QB that could end up like Carr late. Sounds like you won’t be upset if you lose again this yr, so plan on building assets, don’t trade away picks.

[dejeanneret]

It is a 2QB league, so we start two.

Sorry I should've mentioned that.

Aha. Then most of my prior post is moot.

With that said, I still think Keenan + the 2nd overall is an over payment. You may be beyond this stage, but who are the other GM's likely keepers? How many receivers do you start? Does he have a glaring need at receiver? Depending on the answers, I'd offer Keenan straight up and see what happens.

Also, FWIW, I think Eli is being a bit underrated this year. The entire offense (RBs included) is built to support a passing attack. Marshall opposite OBJ is BIG upgrade for that team -- especially in the red zone. Eli could be pay off handsomely, especially relative to his current perceived value.

[rataylor22]

Be curious to know what your whole roster is, but in a 10 team keep 4 I probably wouldn't keep a QB, even in a 2QB league. But I definitely would not trade Allen+2OV for either Winston or Mariota.

If you're absolutely set on it, Mariota is a better real life and fantasy QB. Fun fact, if you look around you can find a lot of stats that say Winston might be worse than Bortles.

[oilspill23]

Aha. Then most of my prior post is moot.

With that said, I still think Keenan + the 2nd overall is an over payment. You may be beyond this stage, but who are the other GM's likely keepers? How many receivers do you start? Does he have a glaring need at receiver? Depending on the answers, I'd offer Keenan straight up and see what happens.

Also, FWIW, I think Eli is being a bit underrated this year. The entire offense (RBs included) is built to support a passing attack. Marshall opposite OBJ is BIG upgrade for that team -- especially in the red zone. Eli could be pay off handsomely, especially relative to his current perceived value.

I also agree that Manning is underrated this year. Obviously, it would be nice to have someone younger than him in a keeper, but I wouldn't be unhappy to have him, at least for 1 or 2 more years.

Most of my league will actually keep 2 QB's because of the fact that they receive 6 points for TD's. There will be a very small pool to choose from come draft time-- thinking maybe Wentz could be available, but other than that, I'm scared at would the QB pool looks like.

I am very deep at WR: AJ Green, Cooper, K. Allen, Crabtree, D. Adams.
RB: Ware, Montgomery
TE: D. Walker

As I said, I don't have many assets in terms of keepers. But the only way to acquire good ones is to pay the price.

At #2, would you take a QB, or someone like Fournette/McCoy/TY Hilton/J.Howard, if available ?

[Bomm Bastic]

Be curious to know what your whole roster is, but in a 10 team keep 4 I probably wouldn't keep a QB, even in a 2QB league. But I definitely would not trade Allen+2OV for either Winston or Mariota.

If you're absolutely set on it, Mariota is a better real life and fantasy QB. Fun fact, if you look around you can find a lot of stats that say Winston might be worse than Bortles.

Very True. Winston had only two (?) QB1 performances for fantasy last season, and fell outside of the top 12 on a pts/game basis yet he's being billed as a top-5 this year. That end of year aggregate always get's 'em.

[dejeanneret]

I also agree that Manning is underrated this year. Obviously, it would be nice to have someone younger than him in a keeper, but I wouldn't be unhappy to have him, at least for 1 or 2 more years.

Most of my league will actually keep 2 QB's because of the fact that they receive 6 points for TD's. There will be a very small pool to choose from come draft time-- thinking maybe Wentz could be available, but other than that, I'm scared at would the QB pool looks like.

I am very deep at WR: AJ Green, Cooper, K. Allen, Crabtree, D. Adams.
RB: Ware, Montgomery
TE: D. Walker

As I said, I don't have many assets in terms of keepers. But the only way to acquire good ones is to pay the price.

At #2, would you take a QB, or someone like Fournette/McCoy/TY Hilton/J.Howard, if available ?

Without knowing more, given the non-PPR and your keepers, my gut says that I'd draft Howard or Fournette if available.

A foundational, high-volume back that will be his team's primary red zone/goal line option is important in standard leagues. I assume you start at least 2 RBs ... You pass at #2, and there's likely just a bunch of skank left when it gets back to you, especially if a lot of the other teams are usng 2 of 4 keeper slots on QBs.

With that said, here's amother question -- is this a snake draft or is it the same 1-10 order each round?

If it's a non-snake, I'm definitely going RB unless there's a real top notch surprise available at QB.

If it's a snake draft, a strategy I've used with success in the past is to explore getting yourself an extra (or higher) second/third round pick. I agree that you're pretty loaded with quality receivers. Make all of them available and see what extra picks they'd fetch you. Extra second or third rounders (or moving up and not having to wait for the order to snake around to you again in the even numbers rounds) can really aid in restocking the cupboards with nice keeper options quickly in a limited keeper.