Leddy + Vatanen +Hayes for Parayko + Dvorak - is this a no-brainer?

[Polecon]

Looking for advice on this offer, which is about round 15 on a negotiation that was started by me offering Orlov + Coyle for Leddy. For background, I have no chance to break top 2 this year, but I am looking to climb from 5th to 3rd after a couple of rebuilding years and challenge for top in 18/19 or 19/20.

In this iteration, the other GM offered:

His Leddy, Vatanen and K. Hayes for
My Parayko and Dvorak

My thoughts:
- I'm of the camp that feels Leddy can do high 40s this year and I agree with Rizeee in another thread that Parayko is capped under Yeo while with Pietrangelo, and 40 is his ceiling
- So I am Leddy>Parayko at approx +10 pts
- Dvorak > Hayes for now to the end of time. I hate losing him, but I can't really argue with Vatanen + Hayes for Dvorak can I?
- I am not a huge Vatanen guy but he might be worth the wait and has name brand trade value
- Hayes would likely be swapped/dropped as I can't see where he fits in my roster.

Is this a no-brainer or am I looking at this wrong?

Thanks in advance

[Eskimo Brother]

Just a clarification, you would need to drop another player to have this trade work, right?
What's your plan there?

[newper114]

Not sure I see the benefit here. You mention that you are going to drop Hayes but one of your points is Hayes + vat is worth Dvorak. So yeah if you already need to make drops adding a third piece doesn't seem worth it.

[Polecon]

Just a clarification, you would need to drop another player to have this trade work, right?
What's your plan there?

We are in pre-protection mode so no roster limits until late August or so. But ya, Vatanen would take Dvorak's slot and Leddy, Parayko's- so I would be one over protection if I bring in Hayes too. I would have until September to sort that but could see him as an asset to add on to a different package.

[Polecon]

Not sure I see the benefit here. You mention that you are going to drop Hayes but one of your points is Hayes + vat is worth Dvorak. So yeah if you already need to make drops adding a third piece doesn't seem worth it.

Ya point, that was inconsistent. Hayes seems like a throw-in from his side (I didn't ask for him), i might be able to flip it out for a pick or perhaps look at Barzel (but that would force me to bump Sprong from the protection list.)

[Sulla]

I refer Dvorak for the second part, even if I do get the Leddy side (not sure I agree it's a 10 point swing though) for the coming season

[Eskimo Brother]

Yeah, I agree that I don't see Leddy being much ahead of Parayko this coming season, especially not 10 points. Past next season I would definitely prefer Parayko.
I think that's what I have a tough time with this deal. Try and consolidate Vatanen/Hayes into a better return as one player or a good pick instead.

[Sulla]

Definitely the approwch I'd take

[Polecon]

So this shows the benefit of these boards, this is a completely different response than I expected and one that has forced me to rethink matters, particularly how high people seem to be on Parayko.

So is this a 3-4 year perspective? I agree with RizzeeDizzee's view in the Defence forum, that at least in the short term (17/18 perhaps 18/19) its hard to see how Parayko can substantively top his numbers last year with Alex P getting the lion's share of PP and St. Louis playing a 4-1 under Yeo (AP had 70% of PP time in Q4 last year after Yeo arrived). This is where I see the + 10 flowing from- Leddy has no competition for PP1 on the 4-1 Islanders (and getting 65% or so time all year last year), and I am betting Weight has some better offensive management than Capuano- there is some room to gain there. A jump from 46-50pts is not unreasonable- Parayko, a bump up from 35, maybe 40? I am landing on 38 or so.

Anyway, I am not arguing a case to justify making a deal (I will likely go through with something like this, but perhaps no longer with Dvorak), I just usually find my views similar to yours EB and Sulla, so this is a bit of a surprise. Thanks again for replying, enjoyed considering the responses.

[Eskimo Brother]

So this shows the benefit of these boards, this is a completely different response than I expected and one that has forced me to rethink matters, particularly how high people seem to be on Parayko.

So is this a 3-4 year perspective? I agree with RizzeeDizzee's view in the Defence forum, that at least in the short term (17/18 perhaps 18/19) its hard to see how Parayko can substantively top his numbers last year with Alex P getting the lion's share of PP and St. Louis playing a 4-1 under Yeo (AP had 70% of PP time in Q4 last year after Yeo arrived). This is where I see the + 10 flowing from- Leddy has no competition for PP1 on the 4-1 Islanders (and getting 65% or so time all year last year), and I am betting Weight has some better offensive management than Capuano- there is some room to gain there. A jump from 46-50pts is not unreasonable- Parayko, a bump up from 35, maybe 40? I am landing on 38 or so.

Anyway, I am not arguing a case to justify making a deal (I will likely go through with something like this, but perhaps no longer with Dvorak), I just usually find my views similar to yours EB and Sulla, so this is a bit of a surprise. Thanks again for replying, enjoyed considering the responses.

We have been wrong before, and that's the fun in this. Leddy probably is a little underrated, but just like there being AP in STL, there are also many other D in NYI, so Leddy could be pushed into a defensive role behind Boychuk or to shelter Pulock.
Definitely a good debate.

[Polecon]

We have been wrong before, and that's the fun in this. Leddy probably is a little underrated, but just like there being AP in STL, there are also many other D in NYI, so Leddy could be pushed into a defensive role behind Boychuk or to shelter Pulock.
Definitely a good debate.

I hadn't even considered Leddy as an option until I got involved in the Leddy v. Gardiner discussion from earlier this month. His underlying numbers are very interesting.

[Sulla]

They are - issue is whether he ever gets a chance to expand on those numbers with Pulock in the wings