The Underappreciated Steve Mason

[BreadManPanarin]

When it comes to goalies, yes I am. Goalies play well into their 30s at a pretty high level.

Early 30s doesn't phase me, but a 36 year old pending UFA I'll admit makes me a little nervous

[JagrBomb]

He put up pretty good numbers with arguably one of the worst D in the league in front of him.

I'm not sure about the W column but I'd expect his save % and gaa to be better in WPG compared to last season in philly

[metaldude26]

FWIW, Mason has the worst PK save percentage of any starter over the past three seasons and is headed to the third most penalized team.

[BreadManPanarin]

FWIW, Mason has the worst PK save percentage of any starter over the past three seasons and is headed to the third most penalized team.

Just curious, what do neuvirth's numbers on the PK look like over that period?

trying to gauge how much of Mason's PK struggles are on him individually vs on the Flyers PK units.

[GoNucks]

Your post/stats is why I always end up having Mason on my fantasy teams, he is a guy you can always draft very late and he almost always puts up very underrated, consistent, solid numbers.

[BreadManPanarin]

Your post/stats is why I always end up having Mason on my fantasy teams, he is a guy you can always draft very late and he almost always puts up very underrated, consistent, solid numbers.

His .925 save% in February/March last season was basically the reason my team won the race for the last playoff spot. And I would have been eliminated in the playoffs if he hadn't won @ Pittsburgh on 3/26 with 2 GA and .926 save %. Playing him that night took mad balls tho lol.

[metaldude26]

Just curious, what do neuvirth's numbers on the PK look like over that period?

trying to gauge how much of Mason's PK struggles are on him individually vs on the Flyers PK units.

Right around league average - 0.869, whereas Mason is way down at .835.

[BreadManPanarin]

Right around league average - 0.869, whereas Mason is way down at .835.

thanks. Mind sharing where you are able to find these stats? I was trying to find them myself but couldn't seem to dig them up anywhere via googling.

also confused because the graphic I showed in OP indicates a .911 shorthanded save% for Mason over his last 163 games played. Is there a difference between PK save% and shorthanded save%, or am I just missing something here?

[metaldude26]

thanks. Mind sharing where you are able to find these stats? I was trying to find them myself but couldn't seem to dig them up anywhere via googling.

also confused because the graphic I showed in OP indicates a .911 shorthanded save% for Mason over his last 163 games played. Is there a difference between PK save% and shorthanded save%, or am I just missing something here?

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...T&sortdir=DESC

[butch]

FWIW, Mason has the worst PK save percentage of any starter over the past three seasons and is headed to the third most penalized team.

Jets are fun to watch so when the isles werent playing I'd catch a period here and there of them on c-ice --so frustrating the amount of bad pims they'd take .

[BreadManPanarin]

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rati...T&sortdir=DESC

Wow, this is great. Thanks Steve!

[ericdaoust]

I've yet to be in any pools where EV SV% counts. Only W, GAA, SV%, saves, SO. He's never been an elite goalie. He might be a bit underappreciated but I'd say he's been pretty fairly evaluated.

[Pengwin7]

His 4v5 save % was garbage last year and isn't great over that three year period, but there are studies that indicate 4v5 save % is fairly random from season to season and is a much less predictive stat than 5v5 save%.

Great thread - even if main thing to take away is discussion about goalie stats.

1 - Of an NHL game, most teams play approximately 80% at ES, 10% PP, 10% PK. Around those numbers. 48 ES TOI, 6min PP TOI, 6min SH TOI.
(This is a ballpark for sake of discussion, numbers aren't exact... just going from my own experience watching NHL games, might be closer to 85-7.5-7.5%)
But, they key note here is that there is potentialy 8x more time spent at even-strength than on PK.
Knowing this, a "sample size" for one year of 5-on-5 stats is much higher... and therefore much more dependable than 4-on-5.
Over three years, or four years, though, you get a good metric - a more reliable quantifier of goalies at that situation.
It's very similar to PPP production for a player, might vary from 1 season to next, but over 3-4 years, you'll see the guys that are best on PP.

2 - Goalie SV% on the PK is not "fairly random". Its an event, a condition. Goalies have strengths and weaknesses and playing at full pace up-and-down the ice hockey (5-on-5) is a different beast than playing a game of "keepaway" (5-on-4). So... while it IS fair to say that a 1-year sample size for SHTOI is NOT as reliable as 1-year sample size for ESTOI (5-on-5), it doesn't mean that SH SV% is... "fairly random". With a large enough sample size, what's fairer (for those that have played years of hockey) is to realize that some goalies ARE better in a SH situation... than others.

3 - All this together, goes with what a few veteran forum members have more concisely noted: There is no ES SV% in fantasy hockey... so while one can point to Mason at #5 (just .002 better than the guy at #10 - which is 2 goals in 1000 shots, meh).. SH SV% is definitely, defintely, definetly not an arbitrary number - some goalies are better at the skills/mental-prep required to shift against the keep-away game.


Overall... good thread.
And I would consider Mason underrated.

Here's TWO notes to keep on Mason, though, going forward.

1) Some (me) subscribe that Mason was able to bounce back in PHI because he was coming in on the heels of the Bryz disaster. PHI fans/management had very little expectations for Mason - considering they were paying him a fraction of what they gave to Bryz. (Most) goalies play at their absolute best under ZERO pressure. This is what ate Mason alive in CBJ - being the annointed one after his golden rookie season. Too.Much.Pressure. Mason's greatest pressure faced in PHI was during playoffs, where he really was less than spectacular for PHI - and some (me) believe this is why PHI moved on from Mason - they didn't see him as a 2-month reliable playoff goalie - playoffs being a resume that Mason does not possess.

2) Mason is now the defacto #1 in Winnipeg and he's playing behind a whole new group of players. A lot of goalies transition slowly onto new teams... so while the WPG D may be considered better than PHI... they are also newer (for Mason) - which might make for a "learning curve" for Mason in WPG.

I certainly won't be buying Mason as a top 10 or even top 15 goalie in my 1-year leagues.
But 15-22 range, yes.

[hockeyrobot]

I've yet to be in any pools where EV SV% counts. Only W, GAA, SV%, saves, SO. He's never been an elite goalie. He might be a bit underappreciated but I'd say he's been pretty fairly evaluated.

Agreed. And I know he hasn't had the best D in front of him but he has always been pretty damn streaky and unreliable. Hard to say he's underappreciated when he has those traits.

[BreadManPanarin]

I certainly won't be buying Mason as a top 10 or even top 15 goalie in my 1-year leagues.
But 15-22 range, yes.

My thoughts exactly. 15-22 range among active NHL goaltenders seems a more reasonable valuation to me than 29th, for both one year and keeper. Thanks for weighing in.