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Thread: Cam Talbot

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    Default Cam Talbot

    Last year Talbot had 42 wins in 73 starts. Wondering if this season he would end up with more wins. I don't think he would get over 70 starts again but he should be in the mid to high 60's. Wondering what people think.
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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    I don't think his starts will drop too much from last year. Whatever logic they went through this year to decide to ride him for so many games, there's no change of back-up goalie or anything else I'm aware of to suggest a change in approach.

    Here's a cool list of most goalie starts in a season. Cam is sitting in 32nd. Maybe he's gunning to move up the list? And note that there are lots of guys above him that were 30+ yrs old
    http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/recor...l-goalies.html

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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    40 Ws, 70 starts is where I see him. Not much change.
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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    Talbot can play 70+ games. It probably also depends on how Brossoit plays. They have a fairly promising young goalie as their backup. The big club's wins are more important than his experience, but sitting on the bench for 73 games isn't helping him a ton either. If he's shows he can be trusted a bit more, I don't see why you need to play Talbot more than 70 games. Part of Talbot's GP totals last year was, in my opinion, the fact that Brossoit was a risky option. I don't think Brossoit will maintain the numbers he's had over his few games last season, but if he can win early on this season, I think their share could be roughly 80/20, so 65 for Talbot.

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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    I am putting him down for 38-40 wins with 65~ starts. Imagine they don't want to ride him as much as they did last year.

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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    40 Ws, 70 starts is where I see him. Not much change.
    I would place him around here too 39-41wins, 70starts
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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    73 starts is likely a little higher than the Oilers wanted last year. It was based on a few things. First, the backup to start the season was Gustavsson, he played brutal early on and the coach lost all faith in him choosing to ride Talbot. Second, once Gustavsson was gone the backup was Brossoit who was better in limited action but still doesn't have enough of a track record to be trusted. Third, coming down the stretch the Oilers were battling for a playoff spot which meant every game was huge, no confidence in any other option meant Talbot got all the starts.

    This year Brossoit will start with the Oilers and the team will want to get him a few more starts. I'm anticipating 67 starts for Talbot and 41 wins.
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    D: R. Josi, J. Trouba, E. Gustafsson,
    G: L. Thompson, F. Gustavsson, V. Vanecek
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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    Agree w/others - most teams/GMs don't want to overwork their goalies and 70+ starts is considered just that.
    Usually when you see a goalie play 70+, its because his team is "fringe playoff" and rides their #1 goalie hard to ensure they win enough to qualify.
    (I often reference that I think its worthwhile for somebody to search all the goalies in past 10-15 NHL years that have done 70+ in a season and see how far those teams went... the goalies wear down in the playoffs and there are VERY FEW Cup appearances and Cup winners among the 70+gs loggers).

    Also - a team should want to give their back-up enough starts to keep them active.
    There are 26 weeks in a regular NHL season, and giving a back-up less than 13 starts (one every other week) doesn't keep him sharp, IMO.

    For those reasons, you'll see most NHL teams with a clear #1 aim for a 60-65 / 22-17 split for their starter / back-up.
    I think Talbot gets 65gs this year and EDM good enough to win 60% of those... math puts that at 39w.

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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Agree w/others - most teams/GMs don't want to overwork their goalies and 70+ starts is considered just that.
    Usually when you see a goalie play 70+, its because his team is "fringe playoff" and rides their #1 goalie hard to ensure they win enough to qualify.
    (I often reference that I think its worthwhile for somebody to search all the goalies in past 10-15 NHL years that have done 70+ in a season and see how far those teams went... the goalies wear down in the playoffs and there are VERY FEW Cup appearances and Cup winners among the 70+gs loggers).

    Also - a team should want to give their back-up enough starts to keep them active.
    There are 26 weeks in a regular NHL season, and giving a back-up less than 13 starts (one every other week) doesn't keep him sharp, IMO.

    For those reasons, you'll see most NHL teams with a clear #1 aim for a 60-65 / 22-17 split for their starter / back-up.
    I think Talbot gets 65gs this year and EDM good enough to win 60% of those... math puts that at 39w.
    # of Games started by goaltender for Cup Winner for last 10 seasons

    2016-2017 Penguins - 49 Murray
    2015-2016 Penguins - 59 Fleury (though Murray was playoff goalie)
    2014-2015 Blackhawks - 57 Crawford
    2013-2014 Kings - 49 Quick
    2012-2013 Not relevant due to lockout shortened year
    2011-2012 Kings - 69 Quick
    2010-2011 Bruins - 57 Thomas
    2009-2010 Blackhawks - 48 Huet/39 Niemi (Niemi played playoffs)
    2008-2009 Penguins - 62 Fleury
    2007-2008 Red Wings - 43 Osgood/41 Hasek (Osgood played playoffs)

    So you have only 2 goaltenders that played over 60 and 1 that approached 70. Average # of games for Cup winners is around 54 games.

    Other 3 of 4 Final Playoff teams - same 10 seasons.

    2016-2017 40 Senators, 61 Nashville, 52 Anaheim
    2015-2016 61 Tampa Bay, 47 St Louis, 65 San Jose
    2014-2015 62 Tampa Bay, 46 Rangers, 54 Anaheim
    2013-2014 59 Canadiens, 59 Blackhawks, 63 Rangers
    2012-2013 N/A shortened season
    2011-2012 62 Rangers, 59 Devils, 67 Coyotes
    2010-2011 60 Vancouver, 60 San Jose, 34 Tampa Bay
    2009-2010 33 Philadelphia, 45 Montreal, 71 San Jose
    2008-2009 46 Detroit, 42 Chicago, 68 Carolina
    2007-2008 35 Pittsburgh, 62 Philadelphia, 62 Dallas

    Average games started for other 3 Final Four teams is 55. Only 1 out of 36 (2.7%) Final 4 teams in 9 of the past 10 seasons (subtracting the lockout shortened season) have had a starter who played more than 70 games. 2 others played more than 65, with one of them (Quick) being on a Cup winning team.

    How many goalies on average in those 9 seasons played 70 or more starts?

    26 out of 270(ish?). So around 10%
    36 more played between 65 and 69 games. So around 13%

    So, it certainly seems like while you can win a Cup with a goaltender playing huge games (like Quick in 2012 or Fleury in 2009), slightly less games is probably a more optimal strategy. Considering a goaltender who played 70 or more games in the regular season has only ever once made the Final Four in the past 10 years (Nabokov in 2010) even though around 10% of teams do it, it seems quite risky.

    Of course this data isn't great because it doesn't factor in how good or bad the goaltending actually was during the playoffs for those teams. High volume goaltenders could certainly have been eliminated through no fault of their own and since they make up only a small percentage of the total teams that do that, the sample sizes are still quite small.

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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    (I often reference that I think its worthwhile for somebody to search all the goalies in past 10-15 NHL years that have done 70+ in a season and see how far those teams went... the goalies wear down in the playoffs and there are VERY FEW Cup appearances and Cup winners among the 70+gs loggers).
    Only a few might come to mind, including Martin Brodeur of 2003.. Maybe even he didn't log 70+ starts.. not sure.
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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    Quote Originally Posted by agentzero View Post
    Only a few might come to mind, including Martin Brodeur of 2003.. Maybe even he didn't log 70+ starts.. not sure.
    He played 73. Great point! He played 72 when they won a few years earlier as well. So I guess if you have one of the greatest of all time you can get away with it.

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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    Quote Originally Posted by MrSandals View Post

    So, it certainly seems like while you can win a Cup with a goaltender playing huge games (like Quick in 2012 or Fleury in 2009), slightly less games is probably a more optimal strategy. Considering a goaltender who played 70 or more games in the regular season has only ever once made the Final Four in the past 10 years (Nabokov in 2010) even though around 10% of teams do it, it seems quite risky.

    Of course this data isn't great because it doesn't factor in how good or bad the goaltending actually was during the playoffs for those teams. High volume goaltenders could certainly have been eliminated through no fault of their own and since they make up only a small percentage of the total teams that do that, the sample sizes are still quite small.
    Great numbers. Logically it would seem like you want a rested goalie for the playoffs because you're going to want to start your starting goalie every playoff game and that's 25+ games through to the finals.

    The argument seems to be a bit of a chicken and an egg argument however. Was the goalie tired entering playoffs, had drop in performance, and thus team was eliminated? OR was the team a boderline playoff team to begin with, needed starter to max out # of games in regular season to get in, got in but wasn't good enough to advance anyways. IMO the second scenario is more likely.

    In the case of Talbot, if the Oilers had the same number of points at the end of the season but Talbot had started 55 instead of 73 do they advance to the WCF or Stanley Cup Finals? Probably not, the team was simply not good enough to advance.

    That being said, coaches often talk about resting their starters for the playoffs which IMO means any top-tier team with a competent backup is going to see its starter start fewer games then the bubble teams or teams without a trusted backup. I see Talbot as a very similar situation to Holtby- gained starters position on improving team. I expect Talbot's GS number to track those of Holtby over the last 3 seasons (73, 66, 63) with the 73 being last season as Brossoit gets more games, assuming he develops into a trusted backup.
    12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster changes, 3 goalie start minimum/week
    2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
    G, A, P, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, SVs
    C: C. Keller, C. Mittelstadt, B. Nelson, R. Strome,
    LW: K. Connor, B. Tkachuk, J. Gaudreau, J. Marchessault, E. Rodrigues, A. Lafreniere
    RW: K. Fiala, J. Bratt, T. Jeannot V. Arvidsson
    D: R. Josi, J. Trouba, E. Gustafsson,
    G: L. Thompson, F. Gustavsson, V. Vanecek
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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    If you want to get a sense of what the next five years will be for Talbot, look at Marc-Andre Fleury from 2010-2015, namely tons of wins and solid but likely not top 10 SV% and GAA.
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    Default Re: Cam Talbot

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    If you want to get a sense of what the next five years will be for Talbot, look at Marc-Andre Fleury from 2010-2015, namely tons of wins and solid but likely not top 10 SV% and GAA.
    5 years is a long time though and the way goaltending has been going these last 2 years, I wouldn't plan beyond 3 years. I planned for 5 with Rask and Rinne and it burned me. Man, remember 2013 when they were basically untouchable at the top of the goalie pile?... Things change quickly.
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    Saros, Shesterkin
    Garland, Vrana, Bjorkstrand, Verhaege, Backstrom, Karlsson, Perunovich, Spurgeon, Pulock, Hellebuyck

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