Results 1 to 14 of 14

Thread: Last Keeper Help.

  1. #1
    mcmcpher2's Avatar
    mcmcpher2 is offline
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    176
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Prodigy

    Default Last Keeper Help.

    Looking for some input on my final keeper. It's a keep 5, PPR league where we start 4 WRs weekly as well as 1QB, 2RB, 1TE. No flex.

    Top 4 keepers are no brainers: Julio Jones, OBJ, David Johnson, Zeke Elliot.

    Options for 5th keeper are:

    Jordan Reed
    Donte Moncrief
    Matt Ryan
    Willie Snead

    Typically I'd explore a trade to upgrade my 5th keeper but I don't see any sense in moving my core 4 and my remaining players are all fringe keeper guys at best for whom their isn't much demand. I'm also lacking draft pick ammunition this year to get anything done, so I'm pretty content to just keep one of the guys listed above.

    Thoughts?
    10 Team, weekly H2H one-win league. Keep 15, any position. 26 man roster.

    Skaters: G, A, PPP, SHG, GWG,+/-, Shots, Hits.
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SO.

    Start: 4C, 4RW, 4LW, 6D, 2G.

    C: McDavid, Mackinnon, Lindholm
    LW:
    A. Svechnikov, Stamkos, Forsberg, Stutzle
    RW: Kempe
    D: Dahlin, Ekblad, Seider, Bouchard,
    ​Sergachev/Chychrun

    G: Shesterkin, Sorokin

  2. #2
    Bass56's Avatar
    Bass56 is offline
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    8,332
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Giant

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    I'd keep Ryan. I know QBs tend to go after RBs and some WRs but I think he can repeat making him a top Quarteback option in 2017
    Keeper league 14 teams (H2H, 20 active players keep 16 NHLers, 16 minors)
    Scoring Cats: G-A-PTS-PPG-PPA-(+/-)-HITS-BLK-SHP-SOG-FOW-GWG / W-L-SVS-SV%-GAA-SO

    C- Crosby, Barzal, Bennett, Schmaltz, Novak
    W- Forsberg, Batherson, Nichuskin, Tuch, Konecny, Maccelli, Sharangovich, Bertuzzi, Kaliyev, Neighbours, Reichel
    D- Carlson, Rielly, Klingberg
    G- Hellebuyck, Demko, Merzlikins, Vejmelka

    Minors:
    F: Fantilli, Cooley, Bourgault, Perreault, Cowan, Ohgren, N. Foote, Goyette, Iskhakov, Denisenko, Tracey
    D: Simashev, Willander, Lambos
    G: Schmidt, Rodrigue, DiPietro, Gaudreau, McKay

  3. #3
    Location
    Pegulaville
    Rep Power
    40

    Moderator

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    I'm keeping Snead...especially given a 4WR roster comp. Ryan is due for a slight negative regression. Not that that kills his fantasy value, but QB is so deep in one QB leagues. Keep Snead.

    EDIT: how many teams?
    @SmittysRant

  4. #4
    mcmcpher2's Avatar
    mcmcpher2 is offline
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    176
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Prodigy

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bomm Bastic View Post
    I'm keeping Snead...especially given a 4WR roster comp. Ryan is due for a slight negative regression. Not that that kills his fantasy value, but QB is so deep in one QB leagues. Keep Snead.

    EDIT: how many teams?
    10 teams
    10 Team, weekly H2H one-win league. Keep 15, any position. 26 man roster.

    Skaters: G, A, PPP, SHG, GWG,+/-, Shots, Hits.
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SO.

    Start: 4C, 4RW, 4LW, 6D, 2G.

    C: McDavid, Mackinnon, Lindholm
    LW:
    A. Svechnikov, Stamkos, Forsberg, Stutzle
    RW: Kempe
    D: Dahlin, Ekblad, Seider, Bouchard,
    ​Sergachev/Chychrun

    G: Shesterkin, Sorokin

  5. #5
    Location
    Pegulaville
    Rep Power
    40

    Moderator

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    Oh shit. Definitely keeping Snead in a 10 team/1QB start. Draft Cousins, Dalton, Stafford...or definitely Mariota. Big Ben if you can handle his home/road splits
    @SmittysRant

  6. #6
    dejeanneret's Avatar
    dejeanneret is offline
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    2,948
    Location
    Big Apple
    Rep Power
    49

    Dobber Sports Veteran

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    Man, I'm keeping Reed all day long here. That's one hell of a start in a keep 5.

    Hit the hell out of WR in the draft. There are so many solid options at WR in a PPR, even in a league that starts 40 WRs weekly. And it doesn't hurt when your first two happen to be 2 of the top 3 or 4 WRs out there.
    14 Team H2H Dynasty League (14 keepers, no farm)
    Weekly Starts (3C, 5W, 5D, 1Util, 2G)
    G, A, PPP, SOG, BS, +/-, GAA, W+OTL, SV%


    C: MacKinnon/Eichel/Kopitar//Pinto/Wright
    W: Ovechkin/Toffoli/Necas/Giroux/E.Kane/K.Johnson(IR)/Schmaltz/Bjorkstrand/Drouin
    D: Dobson/Trouba(IR)/Mintyukov/Gostisbehere/Martinez/Edvinsson/York/Gudas(IR)/Tanev
    G: Saros/Demko(IR)/Askarov/DeSmith

  7. #7
    mcmcpher2's Avatar
    mcmcpher2 is offline
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    176
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Prodigy

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bomm Bastic View Post
    Oh shit. Definitely keeping Snead in a 10 team/1QB start. Draft Cousins, Dalton, Stafford...or definitely Mariota. Big Ben if you can handle his home/road splits
    I've never kept a QB in this league before and don't plan on doing so this year - but I thought it worthwhile putting Ryan's name down and hearing others opinion of him.

    To be honest my internal debate was more about Reed/Moncrief (leaning towards Reed, injuries and all) and the two responses so far are votes for Ryan and Snead.
    10 Team, weekly H2H one-win league. Keep 15, any position. 26 man roster.

    Skaters: G, A, PPP, SHG, GWG,+/-, Shots, Hits.
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SO.

    Start: 4C, 4RW, 4LW, 6D, 2G.

    C: McDavid, Mackinnon, Lindholm
    LW:
    A. Svechnikov, Stamkos, Forsberg, Stutzle
    RW: Kempe
    D: Dahlin, Ekblad, Seider, Bouchard,
    ​Sergachev/Chychrun

    G: Shesterkin, Sorokin

  8. #8
    TheWhale's Avatar
    TheWhale is offline
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    24

    Dobber Sports Padawan

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    There has been a ton written about Snead this offseason that has pushed him into round 4/5 territory. Many are viewing him as a wr2 and I can see him living up to those expectations (I'm a fan). If you were to shop Snead+Reed, you might be able to acquire a WR people are down on (DT, Watkins, ARob, etc.). If you receive no bites, feel comfortable keeping Snead and knowing that he is your WR3

  9. #9
    Location
    Pegulaville
    Rep Power
    40

    Moderator

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    I like The Whale's idea.

    My issue with keeping Reed has nothing to do with his injuries and more to do with the TE position as a whole insofar as fantasy production. There's a tendency to focus on end of year stats or seasonal/bulk projections. But we forget that fantasy is week to week proposition. The fact is TEs generally just do not see the target volume on a per game basis to justify drafting in the first three round of seasonal leagues.

    Gronk exception duly noted. Although even his ADP has dropped to mid-bottom of round 2 (or 23 player overall).

    Travis Kelce finished finished 2016 as the 1st overall TE for fantasy. Most receptions (85) and yet only 4 TDs. No one TE broke double digit TDs. Gates had one more TD than Reed despite 13 fewer receptions. Brate finished higher than Reed and so did Kyle Rudolph.

    Reed played just 12 games. I get it. But the position as group just doesn't produce reliable top 12-14 fantasy production on a weekly basis to warrant their high ADP. Kelce had two games that fell in the top 14 last year overall among Rbs TEs and WRs combined, despite finishing as a boarder line WR1.

    EDIT: Projection-wise Snead sits 31st overall among WRs. You have 40 off the board in your format at a minimum. Gronk+Reed sounds great but is just greedy. Get depth at WR position. Depth wins championships.

    Keep Snead outright, or do as The Whale suggest (better idea) and package the two for an upgrade. Then go draft Jack Doyle or Brate.
    @SmittysRant

  10. #10
    Location
    Pegulaville
    Rep Power
    40

    Moderator

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    I just need to add one more thing...it was bugging me all day and I just now got home.

    My other issue, and probably the more important one of the two, is I wouldn't recommend having an imbalanced roster with regard to fantasy production, especially at any one position. Dynamic or high ceiling players win championships. High floor players get you wins when your low floor/high ceiling types underwhelm on any given week. Too many players on your roster with wide variance of weekly fantasy production is unnecessarily risky. Those players need to be balanced with high floor players like Snead,

    Given Gronk and Reed's very real likelihood of not playing a full slate of games, I would rather pair Gronk's freakishly high upside with a more stable less dynamic TE like Brate or Doyle than w/Reed who has an equally low floor as Gronk (zero, when injured).

    Any player is at risk for injury, yes. But Gronk (degenerative spine condition) and Reed (concussion history) are uniquely prone. Reed has yet to complete a full slate of games, and Gronk it's been 4 seasons.
    @SmittysRant

  11. #11
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Supreme Grand Master

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    10 team league... and you have those 4 keepers...

    Its between Snead and Reed for me... but if I had to decide I go with Reed here and hope he stays healthy.... You have two elite WR and two elite RBs... try getting a top 4 TE and then some depth WR... leave your QB until late and you will ride to victory for sure.

  12. #12
    Location
    Pegulaville
    Rep Power
    40

    Moderator

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    Keeping Reed is just not necessary. It's sexy. But not necessary
    @SmittysRant

  13. #13
    mcmcpher2's Avatar
    mcmcpher2 is offline
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    176
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Prodigy

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    Quote Originally Posted by PenguinHunter View Post
    10 team league... and you have those 4 keepers...
    Ya I am pretty fortunate. It's a competitive league with active, knowledgable owners so I didn't swindle anyone for these guys either.

    - I've had Julio forever.
    - Picked up David Johnson on waivers in his rookie year when it looked like he was starting to get some opportunities.
    - Traded Peyton Manning and someone else at our trade deadline 3 years ago for 1st rounder 2 years down the line which wound up #1 overall and got me Zeke.
    - Traded Todd Gurley and a couple draft picks before last season for OBJ. Don't forget the perception of Gurley last offseason was a lot different than it is now. He went #1 overall in many leagues.


    Also just want to thank you guys for keeping the discussion going on this thread. Very interesting points on both the Reed and Snead sides of the argument. Great input all around. Tough decision.
    10 Team, weekly H2H one-win league. Keep 15, any position. 26 man roster.

    Skaters: G, A, PPP, SHG, GWG,+/-, Shots, Hits.
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SO.

    Start: 4C, 4RW, 4LW, 6D, 2G.

    C: McDavid, Mackinnon, Lindholm
    LW:
    A. Svechnikov, Stamkos, Forsberg, Stutzle
    RW: Kempe
    D: Dahlin, Ekblad, Seider, Bouchard,
    ​Sergachev/Chychrun

    G: Shesterkin, Sorokin

  14. #14
    Location
    Pegulaville
    Rep Power
    40

    Moderator

    Default Re: Last Keeper Help.

    THIS may sway you.
    @SmittysRant

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •