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Thread: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    The fact that he has the history he does and still went in the second round should tell you a hell of a lot more than a team run by and old rich white dude taking him off their draft board.

    The NFL writes off elite prospects all the time for far less.

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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Well, it tells me that one team didn't knock him down as far as others did. And the Bengals don't exactly have the rep as an organization of shying away from troubled players.

    Mixon's a talent, no doubt. But compared to Fournette, I think he carries an extra non-trivial element of risk.
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Quote Originally Posted by dejeanneret View Post
    Well, it tells me that one team didn't knock him down as far as others did. And the Bengals don't exactly have the rep as an organization of shying away from troubled players.

    Mixon's a talent, no doubt. But compared to Fournette, I think he carries an extra non-trivial element of risk.
    Agree with this 100%, and I do like Mixon. I know the 1.03 owner wants Davis bad so I might try and move down to 1.03 and take Mixon
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Quote Originally Posted by dejeanneret View Post
    Well, it tells me that one team didn't knock him down as far as others did. And the Bengals don't exactly have the rep as an organization of shying away from troubled players.

    Mixon's a talent, no doubt. But compared to Fournette, I think he carries an extra non-trivial element of risk.
    Here's the thing that's been bugging me. Mixon socks a girl in the face. Video evidence to prove it, and yet he falls only to round two.

    Chad Kelly, meanwhile, who a number of film grinders and scouts have characterized as possibly the second best QB talent in this draft class gets drafted as Mr. Irrelevant, and ONLY because Uncle Jim made a phone call to his BFF Elway.

    Why did he fall so far? Because of attitude and he's mouthy.

    So I'm expected to now believe that Mixon's being over hyped talent-wise and not as advertised? Something's not right with that line of thought.

    ...and that's not a knock on anyone. If you don't want to own Mixon for personal reasons that's cool. I have no problem with that. But as Rataylor said, I have to believe the draft capital invested by the Bengals to acquire a player with such damning evidence against him has to be a statement as to the level of talent.

    3rd round maybe not. 4th or 5th definitely not. But drafted in the 2nd? They have Mixon lined up for a big time role.

    I will admit having Pacman and Burfict as role models does leave a lot to be desired.
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bomm Bastic View Post
    Here's the thing that's been bugging me. Mixon socks a girl in the face. Video evidence to prove it, and yet he falls only to round two.

    Chad Kelly, meanwhile, who a number of film grinders and scouts have characterized as possibly the second best QB talent in this draft class gets drafted as Mr. Irrelevant, and ONLY because Uncle Jim made a phone call to his BFF Elway.

    Why did he fall so far? Because of attitude and he's mouthy.

    So I'm expected to now believe that Mixon's being over hyped talent-wise and not as advertised? Something's not right with that line of thought.

    ...and that's not a knock on anyone. If you don't want to own Mixon for personal reasons that's cool. I have no problem with that. But as Rataylor said, I have to believe the draft capital invested by the Bengals to acquire a player with such damning evidence against him has to be a statement as to the level of talent.

    3rd round maybe not. 4th or 5th definitely not. But drafted in the 2nd? They have Mixon lined up for a big time role.

    I will admit having Pacman and Burfict as role models does leave a lot to be desired.
    Wait, what?!? I didn't say that anywhere. I said the opposite actually.

    My point is that Mixon has a significant, uncontrovertable (i.e., video recorded) strike already agaianst him.

    Others seem more comfortable concluding that it was a one time total lapse in judgment in no way indicative of how he might act in the future. Maybe that's right. I don't know him personally. But I doubt you or anyone else here does either. We do know, however, that more than one team shied away after doing their diligence.

    I also didn't say I "don't want to own Mixon for personal reasons" or that I don't think the Bengals want him to have a significant role. Actually, I have him ranked #2 behind Fournette. But, given the circumstances, it wouldn't surprise me if Mixon's got minimal room for other errors without facing significant consequences.

    So back to what I did say: I see an extra element of non-trivial risk associated with Mixon. It has nothing to do with Mixon's talent. It has to do with how I weigh that added element of risk vis-a-vis an equally elite (at the least) prospect in Fournette -- on whom even more significant draft capital was expended, and we also have reason to believe will instantly be the focal point of the offense.
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    I think the disconnect is you're really over-stating "due diligence" done by other teams.

    I'd actually highly doubt anyone who did their due diligence on Mixon left him on their board. The ones that took him off are more likely to be the teams with the strict policy of "off field issues = of board". It's a silly, exploitable policy, but I know for a fact teams have it. I seriously doubt, from in depth interviews of people I know did their due diligence on Mixon, that anyone who did took him off their board.

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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Quote Originally Posted by dejeanneret View Post
    Wait, what?!? I didn't say that anywhere. I said the opposite actually.

    My point is that Mixon has a significant, uncontrovertable (i.e., video recorded) strike already agaianst him.

    Others seem more comfortable concluding that it was a one time total lapse in judgment in no way indicative of how he might act in the future. Maybe that's right. I don't know him personally. But I doubt you or anyone else here does either. We do know, however, that more than one team shied away after doing their diligence.

    I also didn't say I "don't want to own Mixon for personal reasons" or that I don't think the Bengals want him to have a significant role. Actually, I have him ranked #2 behind Fournette. But, given the circumstances, it wouldn't surprise me if Mixon's got minimal room for other errors without facing significant consequences.

    So back to what I did say: I see an extra element of non-trivial risk associated with Mixon. It has nothing to do with Mixon's talent. It has to do with how I weigh that added element of risk vis-a-vis an equally elite (at the least) prospect in Fournette -- on whom even more significant draft capital was expended, and we also have reason to believe will instantly be the focal point of the offense.
    I didn't mean to imply that's what you said. I was just thinking out loud and taking your thought a step further in that, I do not believe his "dropping" to the second round is significant at all.
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bomm Bastic View Post
    I didn't mean to imply that's what you said. I was just thinking out loud and taking your thought a step further in that, I do not believe his "dropping" to the second round is significant at all.
    I think it's significant. I think it's significant that he only dropped until the early second instead of being a UDFA. La'El Collins anyone? Dropped from first round to undrafted for smoking weed.

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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    I think it's significant. I think it's significant that he only dropped until the early second instead of being a UDFA. La'El Collins anyone? Dropped from first round to undrafted for smoking weed.
    Well right. Yes. I agree with that. I meant insignificant insofar as his draft capital or fantasy value taking a hit.

    EDIT and that was kinda my point with Chad Kelly. He's mouthy and as close to a UDFA as you can get. Yet Mixon clocks a women he drops to round two. That to me says he's perceived as a high upside three down back
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bomm Bastic View Post
    Well right. Yes. I agree with that. I meant insignificant insofar as his draft capital or fantasy value taking a hit.

    EDIT and that was kinda my point with Chad Kelly. He's mouthy and as close to a UDFA as you can get. Yet Mixon clocks a women he drops to round two. That to me says he's perceived as a high upside three down back
    I don't disagree with this point. But being selected 4th overall says the same to me about Fournette (albeit without the lingering doubt rattling around in the back of my mind that maybe he's more likely than the other guy of getting himself into an awful bunch of trouble at some point).

    In any event, I suppose I'll agree to disagree with you guys regarding the order in which I'd draft Fournette and Mixon. Good discussion though -- makes fantasy leagues way more interesting when there's not a consensus on the rankings!
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    I think it just comes down to how much risk you're willing to take on. I mean, both are rooks and therefore inherently risky. Fournette has the clearer path to a starting gig and therefore more immediate fantasy relevance than Mixon (Hill and Gio ain't going anywhere). But Mixon...imo...is far more versatile than Fournette and that gives him the higher ceiling of the two. He's also on an offense that will more the ball up-and-down the field offensively with greater efficiency so he should in theory see more red zone activity than Fournette.

    Just depends on how much risk you're comfortable with. I would move down from the spot and draft Mixon in the 4-5 overall range. In fact I have...well, traded up, anyway.
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    Bump - now that we have keeper results in.

    In an interesting development, one of our owners chose to keep Isiah Crowell over Michael Thomas. That makes Thomas (13th overall on ESPN Top 300 PPR), the new obvious first overall selection. The next few on ESPN's list....Fournette (22), Crabtree (33), Reed (34), Tate (35), Hyde (36), Edelman (38)...etc.

    The new question becomes, do you all still encourage trading down with a guy like Michael Thomas on the board. Or, does he become the new obvious number one choice?

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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    This changes things a lot. Do not trade down. And take Michael Thomas. No questions asked!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by PenguinHunter View Post
    This changes things a lot. Do not trade down. And take Michael Thomas. No questions asked!!
    I applaud this message.

    [me, applauding]
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    Default Re: Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

    I'm absolutely still advertising that the #1 pick is available. See what offers come in. If someone shows up with a total King's ransom of an offer for #1 because they're drooling over Thomas or whomever, great. If they don't, then draft Thomas.

    You're in the drivers seat. Total win-win situation you have here.
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