Is Fournette The Obvious Choice?

[WeissAsNice]

So my keeper fantasy football league has crossed the decade mark. We have a pretty antiquated rule system, which allows us to keep four players each year with no penalty. That means, each draft starts with about 5th round talent available (with some gems because some teams have too many players to keep), plus all rookies. I'm coming off a terrible season, in which I traded players for picks, and ended up with the first overall selection. Obviously, I don't know if any surprising names are going to be left unkept, but even if someone solid is released, do I have to go Leonard Fournette at first overall? I'd have the ability to keep him for his career, and even though JAX looks questionable, that's a hard proposition to turn down.

Of course, this is a PPR league, and receiving isn't his strong suit.

My keepers will probably be Julio Jones, LeSean McCoy, Gronk, and Keenan Allen. So a RB would fit in nicely.

[rataylor22]

I'd rather have Mixon than Fournette. But really I'd trade down and get some extra picks and let someone else take Fournette. In a keep 4, getting an extra earlier pick can win your league.

[TheWhale]

With your keepers you should target the player who will have the biggest impact right away. Mixon, CMC, Davis and Cook could make a case throughout the preseason but Fournette is the only one right now that appears to be a major part of his teams offense.

[dejeanneret]

Tough call, even more so without knowing who'll be unprotected. But if forced to choose at #1 and assuming no shocking releases, I'm currently taking Fournette.

Yeah, he didn't have the season last year that most were expecting, but he was hampered with an ankle injury. The guy's beastly. I think the Jags are going to force-feed him the ball as a defense-first team that wants to grind clock, and limit Bortles' attempts. Still, they have talent at the WR position that defenses will have to respect.

With that said, I REALLY like the idea of shopping the #1 pick. People often get silly pre-draft in a limited keeper and offer something crazy to move up. No harm in seeing what the pick can fetch if you make it very publicly known that you're willing to listen. If you get an offer you can't refuse for the #1 pick, there are plenty of nice young RB prospects this season you can invest in further down the board (e.g., Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook (I could see people worrying about Latavius Murray's presence), Joe Williams, Jamaal Williams, etc.).

[rataylor22]

I change my answer after thinking about this.

Your best option is to trade the #1 pick and get the most assets.

Your second best option is to take whoever the best player is. Who gets released matters.

Third, I still think I would take Mixon over Fournette. I fully believe that if you remove the off field stuff, Mixon would have been the first RB off the board and would be the obvious choice of first rookie off the board.

[WeissAsNice]

Very interesting thoughts here guys. I wasn't going to, but I'll shop the pick now and see what's out there. And, when keepers are announced, I'll come back here with the best players that will be available.

[PenguinHunter]

Yeah... I would strongly consider a player that is dropped from another team.

Reason being, your other 4 keepers are getting up there in age and I would want to try and win this year. ( I always go for win now moves). And Fournette could have a slow start.

[Bomm Bastic]

I would absolutely trade down outta the first overall spot, as rataylor suggested. Stay in the top six.

However, how many teams in this league and what is your roster composition? I assume this a H2H format and not best ball.

EDIT: I also like Mixon over Fournette, but without knowing how many teams it's too difficult to gauge player availability. You want to win now. And you don't want to overvalue rooks too much.

[Yonald]

I pick 1.02 in my league (for our rookie draft). 13 team 0.5 PPR with yearly keepers listed below

1 QB, 1 RB 1 WR 2 Flex 1 TE 3 Rookies and 1 sophomore.

My keepers are

Stafford, AP, Hopkins, ARob, Moncrief, Ebron, Treadwell, Fuller, Boyd, Gordon

The 1.01 owner keeps flip flopping on who he will take at 1.01 but between Fournette and Davis I think I'll take 1 of them (even though I need RB more)

I do like Mixon a lot as well but he's a character risk on a team with a crowded backfield and a weak OL

[Bomm Bastic]

I think the Cinci OL narrative is a bit overplayed in Mixon's case. Yes, it struggled last season. But Dalton has so many legit receiving weapons, that alone will keep opposing DBs back on their heels and honest.It will also prevent stacked boxes. Mixon is also a legit threat as a receiver. If he can pick up blocking schemes quickly he's has legit three down back potential w/immense upside. That's still a question mark obviously but there's no denying the talent is there.

As far as his off-field red flags. What he did was unforgivable. But it was (for all we know) a one time incident. Not a trend. Like Zeke or Dalvin Cook who no one seems bothered with.

I still need to know how many teams before recommending Mixon 1st overall. In a 10 team league it's close. But 12 and 14 for certain...unless it's a 2QB or super flex league.

[rataylor22]

I do not believe Mixon has off field character issues. I believe he had one off field incident of EXTREMELY bad judgement. I do not condone what he did. I do not expect any issues going forward.

As for the OL thing. Meh. A lot of teams have bad O-Line play. You need to separate a "bad" O-Line from an adapted O-Line. Like Lamar Miller got crushed by his O-Line last year, and Jay Ajayi in some games too. Ajayi was great in games where his kine was healthy and not great when they weren't. But both those lines suffered in camp and in-game injuries. That's adapted. The Bengals know they have a shitty O-Line. They're planning around it all off-season. I think it's overblown.

Backfield competition? Not really. Gio is hurt (and sucks) and Hill really sucks. It's not going to be a hard competition to win.

[WeissAsNice]

I would absolutely trade down outta the first overall spot, as rataylor suggested. Stay in the top six.

However, how many teams in this league and what is your roster composition? I assume this a H2H format and not best ball.

EDIT: I also like Mixon over Fournette, but without knowing how many teams it's too difficult to gauge player availability. You want to win now. And you don't want to overvalue rooks too much.

This league has 12 teams. QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex, DST, K, 7 bench.

[FinnishFlash]

I'd trade down and take Mixon

[Bomm Bastic]

I think I would try to trade down within the top six and see what falls. Target RB2 w/some upside in this format like Theo Riddick and then draft a WR like Crowder or Snead. You'd have a better feel of this league, its owners and what you think you'd be looking at, at say the 6 spot.

You definitely have to handcuff McCoy with Jonathan Williams. I'm not a handcuff believer in general but that's an exception in a heavy run offense.

[dejeanneret]

Interesting discussion here guys. For whatever it's worth, I'm more concerned (maybe wary is a better word) about Mixon's off field past than some other posters.

A one time thing, OK. But it was captured on video, and I'd bet bottom dollar that Goodell and company are watching that kid like a hawk and won't be giving him any benefits of the doubt when it comes to ANY other future transgressions of any sort (if any should occur).

Reports were that some NFL teams took Mixon off their boards completely. That says something to me based on how many resources teams devote to the scouting process and how few historically have apparently written off elite prospects as not being worth the risk if truly viewed as a single horrible mistake or lapse in judgment.

Now, I'm not saying he's off or knocked way down my board. He's most certainly not. But at least at the moment, it's reason for me to feel more comfortable with Fournette if I have the choice -- an elite talent in his own right who doesn't, as far as I know, carry that same potential risk (perceived or real).