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Thread: When do goalies peak - Cage Match finally covers netminders!

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    Default When do goalies peak - Cage Match finally covers netminders!

    Avid Cage Match readers know I almost never cover goalies, mainly because there are so few of them and there isn't as much data (or at least data that I'm conversant in) for them as there is for skaters. But my series on assessing "peak" ages for different positions gave me a chance to dip my toes into the goalie pool, and here's the result: http://www.dobberhockey.com/hockey-h...art-3-goalies/

    Essentially - and as spelled out in more detail in the column - I looked at the top 15 goalies in save percentage for nearly the last two decades, noting their ages. From there, I calculated the average age for the 15 for each year, plus put the 15 into different age ranges and presented all the data in easy to read tabular format. Then I made a few observations, plus compared the data to what I'd already unearthed for defensemen and forwards. While of course not probative, I think it was a useful exercise and definitely provides some helpful food for thought.

    What do you think? Were there any major surprises? Does this sway your thinking at all, whether for 2017-18 or in general? Give the column a read and come back to share your thoughts.
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    Default Re: When do goalies peak - Cage Match finally covers netminders!

    Another interesting article.

    My question about all 3 articles is which one of the three positions has the biggest/smallest number of name changes from year to year in the top 25/15?

    My guess is that goalies have the most consistent top 15 and dmen have the most change from year to year but I would love to know if that is actually true. My 2nd guess would be that there is no difference between the three positions.

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    Default Re: When do goalies peak - Cage Match finally covers netminders!

    Thumbs up on this article as well.
    I formed my own ballpark guess on average goalie age of top 15 and was within <1 year.
    And I think you have good findings here.

    With regard to "top 15" evaluation per cc, its statistically inappropriate.
    There's only 30 NHL teams and maybe only 20-25 have clear cut #1 NHL goalies out of 60 roster NHL goalies, so 15/60 = 25% of the full player pool and 15/25 = 60% of the full majority-minute pool.
    With D-men and 30 NHL teams, there may be 2-3 D-men per team logging 20+ min. So 15/180 = 8% of the full player pool and 15/75 = 20% of the big-minute D-men pool.

    So, by analyzing "top 15", yeah, of course top goalies are going to be seem more consistent, because there's less quantity of them.
    More statistically appropriate would be to look over a range of the top players - i.e. Goalies playing 55-70gp/82gp might be similar to all D-men playing 20-25min gp.
    The percentage of players consistently in the top 25% or 50% of their positional group, I'd speculate, would be similar.
    Top players at their position are top players at their position, for some good range of time - and I'd say the very top 25% D-men are elite longer than the top 25% of goalies.
    Defensemen can excel at their games for longer periods of time because their game is steeped deeply in maintainable attributes like hockey smarts and fluid skating.
    Goalies rely on mental preparation, reflexes, and game flow analysis. The former two can change with time, depending on the goalie's mental strength & body conditioning.
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    Default Re: When do goalies peak - Cage Match finally covers netminders!

    This was a great read.

    Petr Mrazek reached approx. .921 over approx 56 games in 2015-16, so I'd imagine he would also be included with that group of young goalies mentioned near the end like Neuvirth and Nilsson, if his sample size had been 25-50 games?
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    Default Re: When do goalies peak - Cage Match finally covers netminders!

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Another interesting article.

    My question about all 3 articles is which one of the three positions has the biggest/smallest number of name changes from year to year in the top 25/15?

    My guess is that goalies have the most consistent top 15 and dmen have the most change from year to year but I would love to know if that is actually true. My 2nd guess would be that there is no difference between the three positions.
    It's difficult for me to remember now, but I think the forwards were the ones who had the most changes year to year actually. For sure a lot of older d-men were consistently on the list. There were more year to year movement among goalies than I'd have expected, frankly.
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    Default Re: When do goalies peak - Cage Match finally covers netminders!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Thumbs up on this article as well.
    I formed my own ballpark guess on average goalie age of top 15 and was within <1 year.
    And I think you have good findings here.

    With regard to "top 15" evaluation per cc, its statistically inappropriate.
    There's only 30 NHL teams and maybe only 20-25 have clear cut #1 NHL goalies out of 60 roster NHL goalies, so 15/60 = 25% of the full player pool and 15/25 = 60% of the full majority-minute pool.
    With D-men and 30 NHL teams, there may be 2-3 D-men per team logging 20+ min. So 15/180 = 8% of the full player pool and 15/75 = 20% of the big-minute D-men pool.

    So, by analyzing "top 15", yeah, of course top goalies are going to be seem more consistent, because there's less quantity of them.
    More statistically appropriate would be to look over a range of the top players - i.e. Goalies playing 55-70gp/82gp might be similar to all D-men playing 20-25min gp.
    The percentage of players consistently in the top 25% or 50% of their positional group, I'd speculate, would be similar.
    Top players at their position are top players at their position, for some good range of time - and I'd say the very top 25% D-men are elite longer than the top 25% of goalies.
    Defensemen can excel at their games for longer periods of time because their game is steeped deeply in maintainable attributes like hockey smarts and fluid skating.
    Goalies rely on mental preparation, reflexes, and game flow analysis. The former two can change with time, depending on the goalie's mental strength & body conditioning.
    Thanks - I agree that although the findings are still of value, there were more inherent difficult with looking at goalies in this manner.
    DobberHockey writer since 2012
    Click here to read my weekly Cage Match column, pitting two similar NHLers against each other to determine which one is better for your fantasy team: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Ho...me/Cage-Match/


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    Default Re: When do goalies peak - Cage Match finally covers netminders!

    Quote Originally Posted by bergman View Post
    This was a great read.

    Petr Mrazek reached approx. .921 over approx 56 games in 2015-16, so I'd imagine he would also be included with that group of young goalies mentioned near the end like Neuvirth and Nilsson, if his sample size had been 25-50 games?
    Strange - I didn't see Mrazak in my list, or I missed him. But yes, if this is correct then it might give a bit more hope that he can rediscover his game down the road.
    DobberHockey writer since 2012
    Click here to read my weekly Cage Match column, pitting two similar NHLers against each other to determine which one is better for your fantasy team: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Ho...me/Cage-Match/


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