Prospect Draft (Mittelstadt, Glass, Tippett, Yamamoto)

[BrianSTC]

Please rank for highest upside.
Also, any 2018 or 2019 prospects that could be a better bet?

[Axeman33]

Glass
Mittlestadt
Tippett
Yamamoto

[Jouko-Pouko]

Glass
Mittlestadt
Tippett
Yamamoto

I agree with this ranking. But I would want at least Andrei Svechnikov and Rasmus Dahlin ahead of all of them, and I think Joe Veleno, Brady Tkachuk and Ryan Merkley belong in this conversation as well. So my complete ranking would be:
Svechnikov
Dahlin
Glass
Veleno
Mittlelstadt
Tippett
Tkachuk
Merkley
Yamamoto

[LookoutBergman]

Where do you guys rank Makar and Heiskanen in this list?

[Jouko-Pouko]

Where do you guys rank Makar and Heiskanen in this list?

I would put Makar between Mittelstadt and Tippett, and Heiskanen between Merkley and Yamamoto. There's a big gap between Merkley and Yamamoto, you could put a lot of names there actually...

[Axeman33]

Where do you guys rank Makar and Heiskanen in this list?

I would put Makar between Tippett and Yamamoto and Heiskanen after Yamamoto. I am not high on Heiskanen for fantasy purposes.

[VintageVibe]

I would put Makar between Tippett and Yamamoto and Heiskanen after Yamamoto. I am not high on Heiskanen for fantasy purposes.

I don't know why so many people are low on Heiskanen around here. He put up waaaay better numbers than Ristolainen put up at his age in the same league and should turn into a well-rounded Dman comparable to (high-end) Hedman/OEL (low-end) Yandle/Fowler - nothing to balk at.

It's one thing to rank their potential upsides or keeper league value but another to rank upsides + likelihood to reach said upside. Of all the players listed here I'd say that Heiskanen is the most likely to actually reach (or, dare I say, exceed) said potential.

Raw offensive upside:

Makar
Yamamoto
Glass
Mittelstadt
Heiskanen
Tippett

Hyped up keeper league trade value:

Makar
Glass
Mittelstadt
Tippett
Heiskanen
Yamamoto


Upside + realistic likelihood to reach it:

Heiskanen
Glass
Tippett
Makar
Mittelstadt
Yamamoto


My $0.02...

[Axeman33]

I can tell you why I am not high on Heiskanen. It's mostly because of the interview I heard on the Dobber podcast with Craig Button, who didn't think he'd be a great option for fantasy purposes. I realize Button isn't the be-all-end-all, but he has actually been an NHL scout at one time, and compared to most on this site (who I am guessing are not scouts, and never have been), I'll take his word over peoples on this site. Other scouting reports I read about him are almost telling me he will be a very good NHL Dman for years. That doesn't always mean they will be a good fantasy asset.

I am sure there's just as good a chance Button is wrong about Heiskanen as others are about how good he may be, but I'd rather trust the guy who's done the job. I'm willing to let others take the chance on Heiskanen. I hope he turns out to be rock solid, but if he does, the way most D are valued anyway, I'm good with missing that one.

If you haven't heard that podcast with Button being interviewed, you should give it a listen. He has some pretty strong opinions on a lot of kids from this years draft.

[VintageVibe]

I hear ya, Axe.

But with all due respect to Button -- he is an idiot. He is wrong as often as he is right - I personally do not take anything he says too seriously...

[Axeman33]

I hear ya, Axe.

But with all due respect to Button -- he is an idiot. He is wrong as often as he is right - I personally do not take anything he says too seriously...

It's all good. I am not going to try and explain why I don't consider him an idiot because I doubt I would change your mind or opinion on him. As I say, he likes Heiskanen and has said he expects him to be a very good NHL Dman, just not a very good fantasy one. That tells me he won't be a great Dman for offense and probably not a big hitter/blocker. I am ok with letting others take the chance on him. Makar probably has more fantasy value because of his offensive game. I personally think most D prospects are gambles at best, much like goalies. They both (G and D) tend to take too long to get the return on them when drafting early on like this.

And in all fairness, most scouts are wrong a lot more than they are right. Just take a look at all the names drafted and how many actually make it. Scouting is a gamble the best of times and you are only hoping you can be right as often as you are wrong, let alone being right more often than wrong.

[VintageVibe]

It's all good. I am not going to try and explain why I don't consider him an idiot because I doubt I would change your mind or opinion on him. As I say, he likes Heiskanen and has said he expects him to be a very good NHL Dman, just not a very good fantasy one. That tells me he won't be a great Dman for offense and probably not a big hitter/blocker. I am ok with letting others take the chance on him. Makar probably has more fantasy value because of his offensive game. I personally think most D prospects are gambles at best, much like goalies. They both (G and D) tend to take too long to get the return on them when drafting early on like this.

And in all fairness, most scouts are wrong a lot more than they are right. Just take a look at all the names drafted and how many actually make it. Scouting is a gamble the best of times and you are only hoping you can be right as often as you are wrong, let alone being right more often than wrong.

100% agree with you there!

[Jouko-Pouko]

I can tell you why I am not high on Heiskanen. It's mostly because of the interview I heard on the Dobber podcast with Craig Button, who didn't think he'd be a great option for fantasy purposes. I realize Button isn't the be-all-end-all, but he has actually been an NHL scout at one time, and compared to most on this site (who I am guessing are not scouts, and never have been), I'll take his word over peoples on this site. Other scouting reports I read about him are almost telling me he will be a very good NHL Dman for years. That doesn't always mean they will be a good fantasy asset.

I am sure there's just as good a chance Button is wrong about Heiskanen as others are about how good he may be, but I'd rather trust the guy who's done the job. I'm willing to let others take the chance on Heiskanen. I hope he turns out to be rock solid, but if he does, the way most D are valued anyway, I'm good with missing that one.

If you haven't heard that podcast with Button being interviewed, you should give it a listen. He has some pretty strong opinions on a lot of kids from this years draft.

I've seen Heiskanen play a lot but even I can't figure out what type of D-man he'll end up being. He said in one interview that he wanted to focus on the defensive side of things this past year because he was a 17-year-old D-man playing in the top professional league in Finland and he wanted to stay at the top level the entire season, so he minimized risks on purpose to avoid being sent down to 2nd level league or junior. Late in the season, his defensive game had gotten so good that he was one of the top D-men in the entire league and played big minutes for his team in the playoffs as well. But he was always tasked with defensive responsibilities since he was paired with an offensive 'D' partner who took huge risks all the time.

I believe that Button interview was done before the U18 tournament (I remember listening to it, just can't remember for sure if it was before or after), and what I just explained is what Button had also seen. He had seen Heiskanen's rock-solid defensive game and his mistake-free style. But when he played at the U18, he was playing against his own age group and was able to utilize his offensive tools against easier competition. It was one of the most dominant shows I've seen from a D-man at the U18 tournament.

It's important to remember that Heiskanen has always played against older competition and never really against his own age group. At age 15, he was playing at U18 level. At age 16, he was playing at U20 level. And at age 17, he was playing at the top professional level. The only times he's played against his own age group, he's scored 23 points in 19 games. So the offensive talent is clearly there.

One thing that always stuck with me was the U20 tournament where Heiskanen (age 17) was used on the PP over Juuso Valimaki who many consider to be a very good offensive D-man. They played on the same team, they were actually playing on the same pair even, and Valimaki is almost a full year older than Heiskanen, and yet the team decided to use Heiskanen on the PP. I think that speaks to the offensive talent he has. He didn't produce at that level but I think that's understandable given he was 17 and the whole team was playing some of the worst hockey I've seen in a long time.

So I'm a bit torn with him. Does he develop into Duncan Keith, Ryan McDonagh or Marc-Edouard Vlasic? He definitely has the skill to develop into a 50 point player but his defensive game is so great that he could become a 40 or even a 30 point player depending on the amount of risks he's willing to take in most games. So I understand your concern.

But what I do know is that Heiskanen is an excellent prospect and his NHL certainty is very high. He still hasn't even turned 18, and I think he could play in the NHL a year from now. I don't know if the Stars want him to stay in Finland or play in the AHL but either way, I'm expecting a big season from him.

[VintageVibe]

Great insight -- thanks, Jouko!

[Axeman33]

I've seen Heiskanen play a lot but even I can't figure out what type of D-man he'll end up being. He said in one interview that he wanted to focus on the defensive side of things this past year because he was a 17-year-old D-man playing in the top professional league in Finland and he wanted to stay at the top level the entire season, so he minimized risks on purpose to avoid being sent down to 2nd level league or junior. Late in the season, his defensive game had gotten so good that he was one of the top D-men in the entire league and played big minutes for his team in the playoffs as well. But he was always tasked with defensive responsibilities since he was paired with an offensive 'D' partner who took huge risks all the time.

I believe that Button interview was done before the U18 tournament (I remember listening to it, just can't remember for sure if it was before or after), and what I just explained is what Button had also seen. He had seen Heiskanen's rock-solid defensive game and his mistake-free style. But when he played at the U18, he was playing against his own age group and was able to utilize his offensive tools against easier competition. It was one of the most dominant shows I've seen from a D-man at the U18 tournament.

It's important to remember that Heiskanen has always played against older competition and never really against his own age group. At age 15, he was playing at U18 level. At age 16, he was playing at U20 level. And at age 17, he was playing at the top professional level. The only times he's played against his own age group, he's scored 23 points in 19 games. So the offensive talent is clearly there.

One thing that always stuck with me was the U20 tournament where Heiskanen (age 17) was used on the PP over Juuso Valimaki who many consider to be a very good offensive D-man. They played on the same team, they were actually playing on the same pair even, and Valimaki is almost a full year older than Heiskanen, and yet the team decided to use Heiskanen on the PP. I think that speaks to the offensive talent he has. He didn't produce at that level but I think that's understandable given he was 17 and the whole team was playing some of the worst hockey I've seen in a long time.

So I'm a bit torn with him. Does he develop into Duncan Keith, Ryan McDonagh or Marc-Edouard Vlasic? He definitely has the skill to develop into a 50 point player but his defensive game is so great that he could become a 40 or even a 30 point player depending on the amount of risks he's willing to take in most games. So I understand your concern.

But what I do know is that Heiskanen is an excellent prospect and his NHL certainty is very high. He still hasn't even turned 18, and I think he could play in the NHL a year from now. I don't know if the Stars want him to stay in Finland or play in the AHL but either way, I'm expecting a big season from him.

Good post. Thanks.

Most people on these forums don't actually get to see the European kids play much, with the exception of the WJC on TV. We have to go with what we read/hear about them. Button is one of the few TV analysts who actually goes to the rink and watches the kids, even the European ones. That's one of the reasons I listen to what he has to say on these kids.

I know personally, I get to see a lot of QMJHL kids play because I go to the Mooseheads games, especially when there are key players on other teams other than the Halifax ones. I am no professional scout, but as an older guy who has played hockey (goalie actually) for over 40 years (yes, I am that old) I do have a good eye for shooters and even goalies to some extent (always harder to guage in this league). As I say, I am not a pro scout, nor do I profess to be, but you can certainly see the talent in some of those kids and it's easier to pick out the ones who stand above the others.

Thanks for voicing your personal opinion on Heiskanen, as someone who has actually seen him play.

[Justinsane87]

hey guys ! Im hoppin in the thread because its pretty much on subject. If you had the 3rd overall pick of this year draft class only and wanted to take the best player avaible (position doesnt matter), who would you take?

Is Heiskanen the right pick with theses cats of should I take Makar or a C like Vilardi?

Multi cats dynasty league (G/A/P/PPP/FOW/SHOTS/HITS/BLKS)

thanks!