Your Draft Winners/Losers Day 1

[Jouko-Pouko]

After more coffee, I realized that the Blues must be considered biggest winners of the day by a wide margin.

They traded out of 1st round to acquire Brayden Schenn but they also got rid of Jori Lehtera's contract by giving away a conditional 1st round draft pick.

And then they traded back in to the 1st round by giving away Ryan Reaves and pick #51. That's some great asset management from their side.

Pick #27 (Morgan Frost)
Conditional 1st round pick (top-10 protected)
Ryan Reaves
Pick #51

FOR

Brayden Schenn
Pick #31 (Klim Kostin)
Oskar Sundqvist
Getting rid of Jori Lehtera's contract

When you put both trades together, it really starts to paint a pretty picture for the Blues. Amazing job from them. A++

[Dennis]

I don't really understand how Toronto and Edmonton are winners when those guys went right where they were expected to go. Liljegren was ranked #16, Yamamoto was ranked #24.

LA, NSH and STL grabbed the biggest fallers but there weren't many big reaches this year. The Rangers reached on both picks, though, as did Vegas with their #15 pick. The Rangers might be the biggest losers actually since they should have traded down with both their picks, and they had really good picks.

Liljegren may have ranked about #16 or so by a lot of people but in those rankings he was still consistenly the third highest ranking defenseman. He wound up being the 6th defenseman drafted and he probably should have been the first. Time will tell of course.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Liljegren may have ranked about #16 or so by a lot of people but in those rankings he was still consistenly the third highest ranking defenseman. He wound up being the 6th defenseman drafted and he probably should have been the first. Time will tell of course.

Why should he have been first? What exactly has he done for that? For example, Brannstrom was much better than him at the U18, and they played together on same pair. And that was like what, 8 months after Liljegren's mono? And Heisknen was clearly the best D-man in that tournament. So when those three played in the same tournament, that was clearly the order between them. I doubt anyone watching the tournament would disagree with that at all. Makar, Foote and Valimaki didn't play there because they weren't under 18 anymore but hey all had a much better season - very strong seasons actually. They're also clearly much closer to being NHL ready.

And the difference between 3rd and 6th highest drafted D-man was 3 spots. Foote, Brannstrom, Valimaki and Liljegren were all taken one after another. I don't know how it's significant at all if he was drafted as the 3rd or 6th highest D-man.

I know Liljegren had a very good age-16 season which is why he was drafted in the 1st round to begin with but lots of players have great age-16 seasons and never become anything special. I just don't understand the Liljegren love fest but I guess that's what happens when you get drafted by Toronto. Until a year from now they turn against you and then you're total garbage.

This scouting report about Liljegren from Grant McCagg at Recrutes.ca is very telling as to why he dropped as much as he did.

What is disconcerting to me and many in the scouting community is his vision, sense, shot and decision-making, and they really lead me to wonder just how much offensive upside he will bring at the NHL level. I have a hard time envisioning him ever being a double digits goal scorer as he simply does not have the shot or instinct to find the open lanes to shoot at the opportune time. He takes wrist shots the majority of the time?I?m not sure how effective his slapshot is as it?s rarely utilized?and his shot lacks heavy velocity with rare exceptions

Equally as troubling are his passing skills in the offensive zone in particular?his overwhelming tendency is to shoot?the quicker the better. He rarely finds the best shooting location however?especially on the powerplay. If one wonders why Swedish U-18 coaches have stopped using him on the first powerplay in the past two tournaments?you have your answer, because he?s not creating offence with either his shot or his passes.

There's lots more about his defensive game but people seem to think he's the next Erik Karlsson for some reason, so I figured I'd share this part about his offensive game. I think we all know he won't be a shutdown defenseman.

Anything can happen with 18-year-olds. Liljegren could take huge steps in his development and become a very good NHL defenseman. But his draft position was very much justified and he wasn't a steal by any means. He could also become a total bust in which case people will be saying they should have drafted Urho Vaakanainen whose NHL certainty is much higher even though his game is less exciting. That's the nature of drafts especially after the top picks - you can either get someone who offers nice upside but has lots of risk as well, or you can get someone who is almost certainly going to be an NHL player but doesn't have so much upside. Toronto took the risky option while Tampa and Calgary especially took the safer choices.

Anyone from the Foote, Brannstrom, Valimaki, Liljegren, Vaakanainen group could end up being the 3rd best D-man from this draft class and that team then becomes a winner from this draft class. I don't understand how it would be Toronto at this point because there's nothing pointing to that. It could be Toronto or it could be one of those other five teams. Pre-season rankings are what they are, so I wouldn't make my judgement based on them. For example, they had Kostin, Comtois and Tolvanen in the top-5, and those guys were drafted between #30 and #50.

[2014olympicgold]

@Jouko-Pouko
Taking one scouts report is never the right way to do it, especially when it’s known that he takes a huge emphasis on short-term performance to make his rankings. Especially when Grant McCagg had Nolan Patrick at 5 on his April Rankings, and he had Tim Liljegren at 7 in December Rankings.

I like the Leafs pick only because you’re in hit or miss territory with the 17^th pick. It’s rare it’s an average player at that pick really. So go for the boom pick, and when you have a deeper prospect pool like the Leafs you can afford to take this hailmary pick.

Is it a massive steal? No, he went where he went for a reason, there’s question marks. But IF his game tailed off from Mono (And coming back too soon from it) then I like the pick. If his game tailed off because he just isn’t that good, then meh.

[Jouko-Pouko]

@Jouko-Pouko
Taking one scouts report is never the right way to do it, especially when it’s known that he takes a huge emphasis on short-term performance to make his rankings. Especially when Grant McCagg had Nolan Patrick at 5 on his April Rankings, and he had Tim Liljegren at 7 in December Rankings.

I like the Leafs pick only because you’re in hit or miss territory with the 17^th pick. It’s rare it’s an average player at that pick really. So go for the boom pick, and when you have a deeper prospect pool like the Leafs you can afford to take this hailmary pick.

Is it a massive steal? No, he went where he went for a reason, there’s question marks. But IF his game tailed off from Mono (And coming back too soon from it) then I like the pick. If his game tailed off because he just isn’t that good, then meh.

It's not just one scout. When Bob McKenzie asked real NHL scouts to put together their list, Liljegren was ranked #16. If he was so great, why would he be ranked so low?

I agree that there's some upside but there's also a big chance of him being a total bust. That's what you get at #17, and that's why I don't see it being any sort of a steal. It wasn't a bad pick by any means, it was a very reasonable pick at that time. But if they really thought he was going to be great, they would have traded up. He happened to be available for them, so they figured he's worth the risk. The risk/reward ratio was there to take him. That's the very definition of "OK" pick, not a "steal". That's all I'm saying.

[2014olympicgold]

It's not just one scout. When Bob McKenzie asked real NHL scouts to put together their list, Liljegren was ranked #16. If he was so great, why would he be ranked so low?

I agree that there's some upside but there's also a big chance of him being a total bust. That's what you get at #17, and that's why I don't see it being any sort of a steal. It wasn't a bad pick by any means, it was a very reasonable pick at that time. But if they really thought he was going to be great, they would have traded up. He happened to be available for them, so they figured he's worth the risk. The risk/reward ratio was there to take him. That's the very definition of "OK" pick, not a "steal". That's all I'm saying.

I was more saying what that McCagg said, he fails to mention he's the fastest (or top 3) player in the draft. He may not have a booming shot but he's got a solid ability to get it through, on the PP when he's QBing it seems like he's never standing still which is the way to do it on D now it seems (otherwise you get the Preds vs Pens in the playoffs. Lots of passing but the defenders don't actually move).

But yeah, it's fans liking the pick of their team. This guy dropped a few picks from where he was ranked, but he fell from Octobers rankings a lot. Not the same player as Chychrun or reason why he fell (Chychrun was because he didn't continue to develop, he plateaued i think? But Tommys was because he actually fell backwards in his development it seemed). Like I said, it just was the BPA who just happened to fill Toronto's needs (RH shot D-man).

For what it's worth that Russian who went 31st is the steal of the draft in my eyes IFFFFFF he comes to NA. But that's the reason why he was there at 31 (and shoulder injury).

[JagrBomb]

no way liljegren deserved to be the 1st or even top 3 D taken but that doesn't mean he can't end up as the best in his draft year. not likely at this point though.

[2014olympicgold]

no way liljegren deserved to be the 1st or even top 3 D taken but that doesn't mean he can't end up as the best in his draft year. not likely at this point though.

If this was directed at me, I said top 3 FASTEST. Not top 3 D.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I was more saying what that McCagg said, he fails to mention he's the fastest (or top 3) player in the draft. He may not have a booming shot but he's got a solid ability to get it through, on the PP when he's QBing it seems like he's never standing still which is the way to do it on D now it seems (otherwise you get the Preds vs Pens in the playoffs. Lots of passing but the defenders don't actually move).

But yeah, it's fans liking the pick of their team. This guy dropped a few picks from where he was ranked, but he fell from Octobers rankings a lot. Not the same player as Chychrun or reason why he fell (Chychrun was because he didn't continue to develop, he plateaued i think? But Tommys was because he actually fell backwards in his development it seemed). Like I said, it just was the BPA who just happened to fill Toronto's needs (RH shot D-man).

For what it's worth that Russian who went 31st is the steal of the draft in my eyes IFFFFFF he comes to NA. But that's the reason why he was there at 31 (and shoulder injury).

I think Liljegren's performance at the U18 tournament really dropped his stock a lot. That was his chance to redeem himself - it was ~8 months? after the mono and he was supposed to be 100% by then. And then he was absolutely horrible there, constantly getting outplayed by his teammates and looking very average all in all despite getting big minutes. I think the U18 tournament is the biggest reason why Brannstrom went ahead of him - he was clearly better than Liljegren, and they played together on the same 'D' pair so it was very easy to see that. All the rankings before the U18 tournament probably gave Liljegren the benefit of the doubt because he wasn't able to play and then wasn't 100% when he did play.

The Brannstrom comparison is actually very interesting because when Liljegren had that really strong age-16 season that pushed him to top-5 consideration, Brannstrom was right up there in points while playing in the same league (0.76 PPG vs 0.73). The difference is that Brannstrom continued progressing (1.21 PPG although only 19 games in junior) whereas Liljegren couldn't get up to speed (7 points in 12 games). And Brannstrom is only 4 cm (1.6") shorther, and doesn't turn 18 until September, so maybe he wasn't such a reach at #15 after all.

[2014olympicgold]

I think Liljegren's performance at the U18 tournament really dropped his stock a lot. That was his chance to redeem himself - it was ~8 months? after the mono and he was supposed to be 100% by then. And then he was absolutely horrible there, constantly getting outplayed by his teammates and looking very average all in all despite getting big minutes. I think the U18 tournament is the biggest reason why Brannstrom went ahead of him - he was clearly better than Liljegren, and they played together on the same 'D' pair so it was very easy to see that. All the rankings before the U18 tournament probably gave Liljegren the benefit of the doubt because he wasn't able to play and then wasn't 100% when he did play.

The Brannstrom comparison is actually very interesting because when Liljegren had that really strong age-16 season that pushed him to top-5 consideration, Brannstrom was right up there in points while playing in the same league (0.76 PPG vs 0.73). The difference is that Brannstrom continued progressing (1.21 PPG although only 19 games in junior) whereas Liljegren couldn't get up to speed (7 points in 12 games). And Brannstrom is only 4 cm (1.6") shorther, and doesn't turn 18 until September, so maybe he wasn't such a reach at #15 after all.

This is going to be that draft where you look back and say "why did the Leafs/Flames/Jets/Blues/Vegas take Player A over Player B?"

I think the Leafs are hoping his Mono set him back, and it's just so tough for someone 2 months behind everyone and moving from team to team getting no confidence/ice-time/chemistry. Not saying they're right, I think they realized at 17th, might as well go for this guy who dropped a ton in the year (rankings wise). Fits the Leafs mold of drafting this high potential, but high bust potential players.

[The Black Panther]

This is going to be that draft where you look back and say "why did the Leafs/Flames/Jets/Blues/Vegas take Player A over Player B?"

I think the Leafs are hoping his Mono set him back, and it's just so tough for someone 2 months behind everyone and moving from team to team getting no confidence/ice-time/chemistry. Not saying they're right, I think they realized at 17th, might as well go for this guy who dropped a ton in the year (rankings wise). Fits the Leafs mold of drafting this high potential, but high bust potential players.

Totally agree

And ive heard alot of scouts saying more positive potential then negative.

[Pengwin7]

From what I've read (watched over past month) on Liljegren... he's going to be a guy who does well in the right spot... and struggles in the wrong spot.
I know, I know - sounds common, but there's some guys that need the "right spot".

Shayne Gostisbehere, for example, if you tell him he can bomb away on the PP and rush when he wants - he's great.
If you tell him you want him to focus on playing defense and pass the puck on the PP (instead of one-time it)... uh, not so great.

From what I've read/watched though... Liljegren is not a flexible, any-situation, any D-partner kind of player.
He's not just "going to be good" because he has all the NHL-caliber tools.
He'll be OK if a team can find the ideal way to use him.
He's no sure win - and that's why players like him drop on draft day.
(on the flipside... it's also why some players pan out to be great steals of the draft. I'll call this Cheechoo-placement)

[The Black Panther]

From what I've read (watched over past month) on Liljegren... he's going to be a guy who does well in the right spot... and struggles in the wrong spot.
I know, I know - sounds common, but there's some guys that need the "right spot".

Shayne Gostisbehere, for example, if you tell him he can bomb away on the PP and rush when he wants - he's great.
If you tell him you want him to focus on playing defense and pass the puck on the PP (instead of one-time it)... uh, not so great.

From what I've read/watched though... Liljegren is not a flexible, any-situation, any D-partner kind of player.
He's not just "going to be good" because he has all the NHL-caliber tools.
He'll be OK if a team can find the ideal way to use him.
He's no sure win - and that's why players like him drop on draft day.
(on the flipside... it's also why some players pan out to be great steals of the draft. I'll call this Cheechoo-placement)

Fair enough

[tripel]

dunno how we can call Canucks losers of this draft... they desperately need skill, and went for it. First 4 solid -- Pettersson, Lind, Gadjovich, DiPietro
also, for what it's worth, dunno where i found this tweet ...
Overheard at the draft from some team execs: "If Elias Pettersson weighed 20 more pounds he would have gone first overall."

[lucafen4]

dunno how we can call Canucks losers of this draft... they desperately need skill, and went for it. First 4 solid -- Pettersson, Lind, Gadjovich, DiPietro
also, for what it's worth, dunno where i found this tweet ...
Overheard at the draft from some team execs: "If Elias Pettersson weighed 20 more pounds he would have gone first overall."

Ferraro gave them an A in the draft and said that's all he's heard is how well they drafted this year. so.. not sure where the negative comments are coming from? Fans on social media bitching about passing on Glass?

as for Liljegren... I look at him as more of a project player. He was converted to D only a couple years ago so for his positioning and D-zone coverage to be a poor isn't entirely unexpected. One thing the Hunter looks for in a player is hockey IQ. Being the 3rd draft he has run, I have faith that Liljegren has a high hockey IQ. If he does, he'll be able to learn and grow.

A strong season in the SEL next year will go a long way to boost his confidence. As of right now he's at least 3-4 years from the NHL is my guess. Lots of time to help him put it all together.