Keeper help - massive decision

[quantaloup]

This is for the league in signature.

What I want to achieve is this : win next year at all costs. In other words, this is close to a one year league post, but figured I'd put it here since it's still a keeper league and no decision can be taken wisely without weighing this in.

My current assets are these guys, this is over a salary cap of 225$, which goes up to 300$ following auction day. I need to keep four.

F: Kucherov (15$), Tarasenko (15$), Marchand (16$), Nylander (1$)
D: Karlsson (48$), Jones (12$)

I think it's a no brainer to keep Kucherov, Tarasenko and Marchand, but if anyone has doubts over this, please speak up. This leaves Karlsson or Nylander, because I see Jones only as trade bait at this point.

I want to stop here and give a few exemples of auction results last year so you know what the money is worth : Crosby 75$ (!!), Ovechkin 58$, Stamkos 50$, Kane 65$, Kopitar 45$, Shattenkirk 37$, Carlson 43$, Radulov 20$, Palat 20$, Nash 20$, Rielly 15$, Oshie 14$, Koivu 10$, Atkinson 4$, Silfverberg 3$, Granlund 1$. Only a few exemples. As you see, people like to spend top bucks on top producers.

Now I could simply resend Karlsson to the pool of FA and buy him with the immense money stash I will have because of my fantastic cheap keepers. But I don't like to do that. I'd prefer to fill my farm team with ready-to-blow/high-floor-medium-to-high-ceiling farm players. I'm ready to overpay immensely Those players are in farm teams and I can start a discussion for a trade : Guentzel, Keller, Tkachuk, Aho, Horvat, Point, Reinhart, Provorov. One owner has both Guentzel and Point, and is also interested in Karlsson and Jones.

I know how ridiculous a Karlsson-Jones trade for Guentzel-Point might sound, but if I settle on keeping the other 4 attackers, for example, at least I would not lose him for nothing and would come at the auction with almost half a team for very little money.

Another option I would like to pursue is to trade for another very cheap keeper like Scheifele (8$). I've already explored my options with the Scheif owner and he doesn't want to hear anything. There is also Draisaitl (1$), but I suspect nothing can happen on that front either. Then there is Panarin (8$), but I like Nylander at 1$ about as much.

This paints a broad picture of my current situation. I am not too sure where to go from here and I don't want to ruin my nice position with a crazy decision. I am all ears, guys. Rep will be given to everyone who has ideas. Who are your favourite farms from this list? Who should I keep and who should I trade to upgrade my current farm (see sig)?

[RizzeeDizzee]

You want to win at all costs. In that case you have to keep Karlsson, Marchand, Tarasenko, and Kucherov. It's that simple. Nylander is the guy to deal, and Jones too if you can swing it.

The only other possible option would be to try and move one of Tarasenko or Marchand as part of a deal to land Scheifele, since I believe we've seen the best that both Marchand and Tarasenko have to offer, but not so for Scheifele, who could outpoint one or both of them in 2017-18. The farm guys all have too many question marks for someone who wants to win "at all costs."

[FinnishFlash]

I'm assuming its William Nylander and not Alex?

On that assumption, I would keep Karlsson, Kucherov, Tarasenko and Nylander.

I don't think Marchand comes close to this years point totals again. Nylander at $1 is incredible value. At worst I think you have a 50 point player there (Which at a dollar is still good value) and at best you might have a 70 point player. This year screams career year for Marchand, I suspect he regresses back into the 60's next year.

[quantaloup]

Yes, it's William indeed.

One thing to consider is the money I would be saving by keeping Nylander instead of Karlsson is 47$. 47$ buys a lot of very good players also. So the thing to consider is :

Karlsson + some dud at 1$ + (return on Nylander+Jones)
or
Nylander + 47$ worth of players (return on Karlsson+Jones)

[RizzeeDizzee]

Karlsson is a difference maker in fantasy - one of a precious few. I realize that thinking GMs win leagues, but OVERthinking GMs can lose them. Plus, with the prices that were paid in the past, Karlsson goes for $70 easily if put back into the pool. I mean jeez - Shattenkirk went for $37 and Carlson for $42!!

[quantaloup]

Allright, so the Guentzel/Point owner wants to hear nothing of Nylander. I need to focus elsewhere. What farm players listed in the original message should I hunt for? How would you rank these guys considering only pure production for next year?

[RizzeeDizzee]

None of the farm guys will likely be difference makers. Horvat plays too many tough minutes and Aho probably is a season or two away from a breakout, as is Provorov. Reinhart might be interesting, but he too likely won't be that much better in 2017-18. Thachuk isn't ideal for your categories.

[Pengwin7]

F: Kucherov (15$), Tarasenko (15$), Marchand (16$), Nylander (1$)
D: Karlsson (48$), Jones (12$)

I think it's a no brainer to keep Kucherov, Tarasenko and Marchand, but if anyone has doubts over this, please speak up. This leaves Karlsson or Nylander, because I see Jones only as trade bait at this point.

Impossible for any of us to give you an accurate answer.
Auction pool player value is directly tied to how much each team has saved.

You've already indicated that guys like Crosby, Ovechkin, etc. go for big value.
So that also indicates they get "thrown back" for re-bid.
And THAT indicates that GMs in your pool keep their best "value" and re-bid on the big names.

So... while you may feel like your choices save you enough to re-get Karlsson... you may re-bid win him... you may not.
It depends on how much other GMs have saved.

Here's what I do see... if John Carlson is going for $43... then Karlsson will probably be bid at or around $60, sound about right???

So... what is more likely - for say a combined total of $55 for BOTH players:
A) Keep Karlsson at $48... and maybe bid-win Nylander at $7... ($55 total for those two)
or
B) Keep Nylander at $1... and maybe bid-win Karlsson at $54... ($55 total for those two)

That WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS:
Is it more likely to re-win Nylander at $7 or to re-win Karlsson at $54???

You basically want to play a situation game of "TWO PLAYERS for $XX"... and figure out what situation is more likely to land you those two.
That will help you determine who to keep and who to throw back.

Good luck.

[finnys_fanatsy]

in an no holds barred, throw it all in..im keeping EK, no doubt. and keeping WNylander ahead of Marchand...and using teh savings from that swap to re-draft or draft who you want.

[Seeds of Grapes]

Kucherov, Tarasenko Karlsson and Marchand.

[Eskimo Brother]

I'm keeping Kuch, Tank, Marchand and Karlsson.

Keeping a goalie doesn't make sense in a start 1 - 14 team league. Then it's Nylander vs Karlsson. I would much rather try and replace Nylander at his price than try to replace Karlsson at his, especially with how you have shown the skew to go in your league in terms of bidding.

[quantaloup]

I ended up trading Nylander at 1$ for Guentzel (farm) and I am very confident this was the right move. Thanks guys.