Victor Hedman

[LuigiC173]

This is not a question about whether to keep or not he is absolutely a keep for me but I want to hear what others think of him going forth. In his age 26 season he took the step into the elite territory I have been waiting for since 2009 and for me he is absolutely real and here forth have him as 65-70 point defender, Stamkos or no Stamkos. IMO Tampa would be foolish not to feature him permanently on PP1 as he has a hammer of a one timer himself and has the knack for getting it on net. I still think he can usurp 75 points a couple times in his prime but I am more than content with what he brings to the table already.

[Pengwin7]

He's not a 65-70pt player because TB has other weapons (Kuch, Stamkos) that can snipe. TB also needs Hedman to play lockdown D.
That's a big difference between, say, SJ who doesn't have an elite sniper and has another pair (Braun-Vlasic) that can play lockdown D.
That situational allows Brent Burns to become the 70+ guy that he's shown.

I think Hedman is a 50-55pt D-man that will have some years in the high 50s... and also some off years in the high 40s.
He's going to be a Tier Ib type Multi-Cat fantasy guy too.

I love me some Hedman - but he doesn't have the style & situation to go 60+ consistently.

[SelkeSmooth]

There have been 122 70+ pt seasons by a D man all time, 12 in the salary cap era. I don't think anyone aside from Karlsson is a legit 70+ pt D man. And even him I would hesitate on saying he's a lock.

Hedman's usage is also an issue in that TBL uses him in all situations and not just heavy 5on5 and PP.

All that being said I do think he's a lock for top 5-10 in D scoring for the foreseeable future. I think the average of his next 5 years will be in the 55-65 range.

[forsbergfan]

I think way too much has been made of stamkos' return harming hedman's PP time. after the way he played this year, he's gonna get tons of PP time, and will put up lots of points. although, as was mentioned above, nobody besides for karlsson can be penciled in for 70+ points, but hedman should be a good bet for 60.

[LuigiC173]

I think way too much has been made of stamkos' return harming hedman's PP time. after the way he played this year, he's gonna get tons of PP time, and will put up lots of points. although, as was mentioned above, nobody besides for karlsson can be penciled in for 70+ points, but hedman should be a good bet for 60.

this is how I see it I know a 72 point season like this one may not come again but I fully expect over 60 each season from here through age 30.

[lucafen4]

I don't see how a forward returning to the line up can hurt their only offensive weapon on the blue line? 4f-1d is their go to PP1... Hedman is that 1d. also likely to be feeding Stammer at the dot. if anything a healthy stamkos will help stabilize his production and lessen next season's drop off.

[SuperMario]

I don't see how a forward returning to the line up can hurt their only offensive weapon on the blue line? 4f-1d is their go to PP1... Hedman is that 1d. also likely to be feeding Stammer at the dot. if anything a healthy stamkos will help stabilize his production and lessen next season's drop off.

I forget where I read it - likely somewhere on Dobber - but Hedman is the wrong hand to feed Stammer, that's why Stralman is paired up with him on the PP. Hedman is paired with Kuch as it works better. Righty to Righty, Lefty to Lefty. So yeah, Stamkos returning could bump Stralman up to PP1, and Hedman down to PP2.

[Pengwin7]

this is how I see it I know a 72 point season like this one may not come again but I fully expect over 60 each season from here through age 30.

People ALWAYS do this after a D-man has his outlier season.

I remember when people did it after Doughty's 59pt season in his year #2. (Doughty shot 11% that year and had 31 PPP)
Doughty is a 6% type shooter... and the LA PP has not since even gotten him over 25 PPP.
http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/stats...5/drew-doughty
Personally, I think Doughty appears to have more offensive flair than Hedman, but Doughty has only passed 50pts once in his last six (& half) full seasons. 1/6.

Duncan Keith is another guy. He scores 69pts... everybody say "Oh... he's a 60+ ever year defenseman".
Then three years go by... and then he scores 61pts... and everybody's back to saying "Oh... he's a 60+ every year defenseman."
And then more years go by.
And we're talking a PP1 with Toews, Pat Kane, a younger Hossa, now there's Panarin... and Keith, up top... still not putting up 20+ PPP.
http://www.espn.com/nhl/player/stats...6/duncan-keith

And you're talking about 60+ every.year, for Hedman! Hmph.

Unless a D-man is taking 250sog... or playing on an absolute dynamite PP unit...
You should expect certain things:

1. Take their career SH% and multiply it by their average SOG. This will give you their G. For Hedman: 6.5% x 180sog = 12g.
2. Look at their history of even-strength assists, take whatever level they are playing at. For Hedman: 28 ESA. He had 27 this year, 27 last, 31 four years ago and paced for 28 3yrs ago (inj).
3. Give them the NHL-average of PPA for a PP1 D-man. This is... (best guesstimate)... about 17 PPA. [Hedman had 29 PPA this year, that's a lot... and also a function of how well the TB snipers are hitting on the PP... which is out of his hands and subject to change. PP1 unit guys should only, typically, be counted on for about 23-25ppp, not 33.]

12 + 28 + 17.
That's 57pts.
Barring injury and assuming he stays on PP1, that's where the math takes him.
50-55 is a safer zone, IMO.

[btw - Just watch. Vegas will come out with a line on him next year at 54.5pts. If you think he'll go 60+ fo' sho'... put your bank account on that and double up.]

[BreadManPanarin]

Unless a D-man is taking 250sog... or playing on an absolute dynamite PP unit...
You should expect certain things:

1. Take their career SH% and multiply it by their average SOG. This will give you their G. For Hedman: 6.5% x 180sog = 12g.
2. Look at their history of even-strength assists, take whatever level they are playing at. For Hedman: 28 ESA. He had 27 this year, 27 last, 31 four years ago and paced for 28 3yrs ago (inj).
3. Give them the NHL-average of PPA for a PP1 D-man. This is... (best guesstimate)... about 17 PPA. [Hedman had 29 PPA this year, that's a lot... and also a function of how well the TB snipers are hitting on the PP... which is out of his hands and subject to change. PP1 unit guys should only, typically, be counted on for about 23-25ppp, not 33.]

12 + 28 + 17.
That's 57pts.
Barring injury and assuming he stays on PP1, that's where the math takes him.
50-55 is a safer zone, IMO.

I agree with this line of thinking. I am expecting 50-60 pts from Hedman. 33 PP pts is not sustainable. Only 3 D men have broken 25 PP pts both of the last 2 years: Burns (26 and 32), Karlsson (26 and 29), and Shattenkirk (27 and 27). Hedman jumped from 12 PP Pts in 2015-16 to 33 PP Pts in 2016-17 which is nothing short of incredible. If anyone in your league is willing to pay the price of a consistent 70 pt D man for Hedman I would deal him in an instant. I love him as a 50-60 pt guy though. One of my favorites. But there are only 2 legit 70 pt D men in my mind right now. Burns and Karlsson.

[LuigiC173]

I certainly agree this 72 point season is prob an outlier but he is one fo the best IMO as a player and think 60 plus in his prime is not unrealistic. He could certainly score as little as 45 and repeat this again in hopes nonetheless he is an all around great own no doubt love the guy. I do not think handedness in Stralman is enough to move Hedman down on PP that would be dumb as far as logic IMO plus Stralman exiting prime and no chance to post the type of points Victor can put up. If Hedman/Kucherov/Drouin is clicking like last season on PP1 then honestly Cooper should relegate Stamkos to PP2 even though I know that will not happen.

[DudeImJason]

w/ Stamkos back this will results in less touches for Hedman which will result in less points, Hedman overachieved last season and will come back down to earth 55-60 points is a likely range for him IMO, which for a dman isn't terrible

[BreadManPanarin]

55-60 points is a likely range for him IMO, which for a dman isn't terrible

On the contrary, it is VERY good. Hard to complain about those kind of results, unless one is going into the season with unreasonable expectations.

[Sulla]

I certainly agree this 72 point season is prob an outlier but he is one fo the best IMO as a player and think 60 plus in his prime is not unrealistic. He could certainly score as little as 45 and repeat this again in hopes nonetheless he is an all around great own no doubt love the guy. I do not think handedness in Stralman is enough to move Hedman down on PP that would be dumb as far as logic IMO plus Stralman exiting prime and no chance to post the type of points Victor can put up. If Hedman/Kucherov/Drouin is clicking like last season on PP1 then honestly Cooper should relegate Stamkos to PP2 even though I know that will not happen.

Its not logic it's practicality... try having a left handed pass to a right handed for a one timer.... his pp points will regress and with it so does his opportunity to hit 70... I'd be happy with 55 every season though and that is achievable

[LuigiC173]

oh for sure owned 2 seasons now in keeper seen both ends of spectrum in that time love him for all around contributions to my scoring cats.

[LuigiC173]

does the Drouin trade change anyone's perception? Only helps Heds I am thinking.