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Thread: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

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    Default Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    Who's going to have more points from 2019 to 2021? Middlestats landing spot will be a factor.

    Guenzel - 65 point ceiling?
    Middlestat - 70 point ceiling?
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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    That has to be nearly impossible to predict.. Considering the difference is only 5 points, that's a heck of a shot in the dark to be taking. Unless you have some restraints for salary cap or roster reasons, I would easily choose Guentzel here and let the others worry about what Mittelstadt will do in 3 years.. Guentzel is doing it now (more or less).
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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    I'm not a fan of how you're breaking this down. Why does 2017-2019 not matter?


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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    Mitts just got done playing high school hockey. Pretzel just won a cup. If I had to make a wager it would be the player already producing. Mitts might not even crack a NHL roster until 19-20. So I vote Pretzel.
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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    Based on his past season and playoffs, Guentzel has 68 pts projected on 82 games so I his ceiling can't be 65 pts. He is a rookie, so with experience, more playing time and more powerplay, his ceiling has to be 75-80 pts. It doesn't mean he will reach it, you can be a believer or not, but it's a realistic target.

    I can't see any experienced pooler recommending Middlestadt when Guentzel can have 70 pts next year and Middlestadt is 2-3 years away to make the NHL, 4-5 years away of having a chance of doing 70 pts, or more.

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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    I've had JG at the top of my list with Patrick and Hishier until recently, with some other word bouncing around regarding his reliance on 87. While not to the same scale as Sheary, it still exists, and what is to say that it sticks. I don't disagree with anyone though, that Guentzel should be a fairly easy pick now. Simply considering their ceiling in 3-5 years. The team that I will have an opportunity at one of them wont be competitive for the next 2 seasons.
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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    As mentioned the ceiling can be virtually anything. Guentzel could easily put up numbers similar to Kunitz in his prime which is an incredibly high ceiling in today's NHL. It could easily be 70-0 in favor of Guentzel in each of the next two years. To me that really matters when it comes to fantasy value. On the other hand there's also potential for Guentzel (and Middlestat for that matter) to post more middling numbers and settle in as depth scorers in fantasy.


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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    I hope it's a free league. I hate not being competitive in any season if I'm paying. You could make several trades and speed up your competitiveness. I take Guentzel. If you think it's 2-3 years before you can compete (I flip my roster almost every 18-20 months it seems) then take JG anyway. In 3years Guentzel will be fully established #1PP, top line in Pitt... CM will just be finding his way. Take proven over speculative & CM's potential is considerd highly boom/bust atm.
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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    I'm a pretty firm believer that Middlestadt will be the better player long term. I think Guentzel settles into that 60 point range, he won't maintain his high shooting percentage in seasons to come and there is zero guarantee he sticks on the Crosby line.

    Having said that, I agree that it will take a while, probably 3-4 years, for Middlestadt to catch and pass JG.

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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    Quote Originally Posted by olafson1393 View Post

    Guenzel - 65 point ceiling?
    With 37 pts in his last 36 nhl games and 56 pts in his last 43 ahl games i think Guentzel's ceiling is a lil higher than 65 pts.
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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    As the others said, you take the player who is already producing at a top 20 clip.. Mittelstadt is at least two years away from being a rookie, likely more. He's got a similar ceiling as Guentzel with FAR more risk.

    It's not even comparable to me.
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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    Quote Originally Posted by Nifty Mittens View Post
    With 37 pts in his last 36 nhl games and 56 pts in his last 43 ahl games i think Guentzel's ceiling is a lil higher than 65 pts.
    Yeah he's being enhanced by the players around him but it's not like he's a 4th liner without them. He's a very good scorer.


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    Default Re: Guentzel vs Middlestat long term outlook

    I don't know why in the world you'd ever choose Mittelstadt over Guentzel. Even if you think CM will be better, you could trade Guentzel for Mittlestadt+ very easily

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