Guentzel is a sell high, sure. But only if you do it right.

[BreadManPanarin]

This was originally a response to another thread, but maybe it has enough substance to be worth posting on its own.

I am having some deja vu reading these Guentzel sell high posts. Guentzel is a sell high right now, just like Panarin was a sell high in June/July of 2016.

http://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?200211-Money-issues-Panarin-and-Kuznetsov&highlight=panarin+trade

"I'd be trying to sell Panarin coming off his monster season. I dont think he will repeat it but thats just me."
"I also see this as a sell-high window for Panarin. I see Kuznetsov as more of a star who will continue to produce points regardless of linemates."
"Another move Panarin for me... Caps with the better supporting cast to keep Kuz relevant.."

There were a bunch of other threads with similar sentiments being shared, that is just a small sampling from one thread. There were probably better threads with better quotes, but I was too lazy to search very hard.

There were also some people on the other side of the issue:
"Panarin is still a top tier player in his own right. He produced just as well playing with Toews as he did with Kane ... there's no reason Kane can't be a 40 goal, 90 point player any given season. Panarin should be in on 75+ points of that, especially as their chemistry continues to develop."
"I think as Panarin becomes more confident he will become even more deadly. I know I would look to trade for Panarin if an owner was looking to move him."

Panarin was supposed to regress because Kaner wasn't going to score 106 points again. Kane scored 17 points less this season, but Panarin only scored 3 points less. That's because Panarin's production is based on other factors besides just Kane's production.

Guentzel is expected by many to regress just like Panarin was expected by many to regress, but for a different reason. Between the regular season and playoffs Guentzel has 54 points in 64 games (69 point pace over 82 games). Crosby isn't playing unsustainably well like Kane was, but the knock on Guentzel is that his shooting % is very high. If his combined 22% shooting over those 64 games were to drop to 15% then his pace would drop to 57 points. If it fell even lower then his pace would drop even further, obviously. This is what has a lot of people worried and calling him a sell high.

Like with Panarin though, there are other factors that go into Guentzel's future production. It is not simply a matter of his shooting % dropping to a sustainable rate and everything else staying the same. The most obvious factors involve usage. Guentzel's 33 points in 40 regular season games came with just 15:53 TOI/game and minimal power play time. In the playoffs he has had 17:33 TOI/game which is 3rd among Pittsburgh forwards behind Crosby, Malkin and Kessel. He has also carved out a better share of the PP time, having been on the ice for 43% of the PP minutes over the past 10 games.

Guentzel's shooting percentage will go down. Nobody disagrees with that, and it doesn't even bear mentioning at this point. To point out that Guentzel's shooting percentage will drop is beating a dead horse. Just because his shooting % goes down does not mean that Guentzel won't maintain or even increase his points per game. I believe that the increase in ice time and power play time will be more than enough to counteract the shooting % regression, just like other factors were enough to allow Panarin to maintain his production despite Kane coming back down to earth.

Like Panarin, Guentzel is a very skilled winger who has an ideal situation where even if he fails to stick with Crosby (Kane), then he gets "downgraded" to playing with Malkin (Toews). Like Panarin he has shown that his greatest asset is between his ears. Panarin and Guentzel may not be true superstars by their own merits, but they have the ability to work with superstars on a level of harmony that makes them produce like superstars. For fantasy hockey that is enough.

Guentzel is a sell high, but you better get serious value for him if you do it. I am guessing that most people who "sold high" on Panarin last offseason did not return sufficient value in hindsight. For example, trading Guentzel for Puljujarvi AND Rantanen would be selling high. I could get behind that. Trading him straight up for either of them would not be selling high, in my opinion. Puljujarvi MIGHT be a 70 point player some day. He might not. He has physical tools that Guentzel does not, but he has not proven that he has the hockey IQ that Guentzel has. He has McDavid and Draisaitl to play with eventually, but guys like Panarin and Guentzel prove that hockey IQ is more important than physical traits when it comes to being able to sustain high level chemistry with a superstar.

I own both players, and if I had to drop one right now it would be Puljujarvi over Guentzel. Puljujarvi MIGHT have a higher ceiling, but the risk is lower with Guentzel and he is doing it right now. If you are making a one for one trade of Guentzel for a prospect, it had better be Keller. I don't see any other single prospect returning enough value for the trade to be aptly called "selling high".

Fantasy Hockey Geek had a very good response in the other thread: "I think there's a solid strategic play in selling Guentzel now, just as there was for selling Panarin, simply to lock in the value gain on your team. As you say though, gotta actually lock in the value to make it worthwhile."

[als_revenge]

Just a hunch, but I don't think there will be a lot of selling high; I think there will be a lot of "holding" (due to unreasonable asking prices).

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I traded him and Mike Reilly for Schmaltz, Kapanen, Gauthier (flipped for Athanasiou) and Weal. I figure even if a couple hit and a couple miss, I'm probably good. What do you guys think?

[yougo]

I traded him and Mike Reilly for Schmaltz, Kapanen, Gauthier (flipped for Athanasiou) and Weal. I figure even if a couple hit and a couple miss, I'm probably good. What do you guys think?

That's a lost for me. None of them have Guentzel upside.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

That's a lost for me. None of them have Guentzel upside.

Fair enough, I know that it might backfire if he's the next points beast, but I like the potential of some of the guys I got and I'm not sold on Guentzel. I definitely treated him like a sell high. Time will tell if one of my 4 new prospects is a hit. Hoping, but definitely not certain.

[STONE.]

I traded him and Mike Reilly for Schmaltz, Kapanen, Gauthier (flipped for Athanasiou) and Weal. I figure even if a couple hit and a couple miss, I'm probably good. What do you guys think?

Yikes. Very bad deal methinks.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Could end up being a bad one. I guess I just don't see Jake as a sure thing, and I'd rather have 4 lotto tickets instead of one. Made my prospect pool a lot deeper than it was.

[BreadManPanarin]

That's a lost for me. None of them have Guentzel upside.

Yeah... I really don't like this trade.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Can't win them all I guess, haha. It would get boring if you guys liked ALL my trades!

[Jouko-Pouko]

That's a lost for me. None of them have Guentzel upside.

Yikes. Very bad deal methinks.

Yeah... I really don't like this trade.

This is definitely a good example why people should post their trade offers on the forum before accepting them instead of after it. I agree with others - you traded an A+ prospect for some B-/C+ level prospects. Quality over quantity is very often a good starting place, especially when dealing with A level prospects.

[Yonald]

Anyone else make any deals with Guentzel?

I'm shopping him around in my league but my price is high as well (Offered him straight up for Keller but it was declined)

With my roster I'm better going for a similar prospect with higher upside since I have so much depth at F

[Mr. Guru]

Guentzel likely to go between 3-5 in our upcoming entry draft.

[ericdaoust]

The problem is, once again, people going in with the wrong mindset. The "it's the best thing offered" excuse is used constantly while teams screw themselves over. Meanwhile it's so easy to just keep the player. So essentially the GM is stuck in the trade mindset instead of doing what's best for his fantasy team.

In order to "sell high" you have to actually sell high and get a massive return. Otherwise you're selling low.

As an aside, buying low is extremely fun but it's even more fun when you buy low on a player who happens to be at the height of his value.

[lucafen4]

Anyone else make any deals with Guentzel?

I'm shopping him around in my league but my price is high as well (Offered him straight up for Keller but it was declined)

With my roster I'm better going for a similar prospect with higher upside since I have so much depth at F

IN my keep 12-3yr contract cap. He was on the outside looking in. So I shopped him for two weeks, 1/11 had interest. I ended up getting Meier (whom I can hold in the minors outside of my 12 keep) & a 6th rounder in the redraft. Better than losing him for nothing. And for that other owner, the bump on his last keeper likely isn't great enough to have lost Meier and a mid-pick - outside of potential cap implications.

- - - Updated - - -

The problem is, once again, people going in with the wrong mindset. The "it's the best thing offered" excuse is used constantly while teams screw themselves over. Meanwhile it's so easy to just keep the player. So essentially the GM is stuck in the trade mindset instead of doing what's best for his fantasy team.

In order to "sell high" you have to actually sell high and get a massive return. Otherwise you're selling low.

As an aside, buying low is extremely fun but it's even more fun when you buy low on a player who happens to be at the height of his value.

I wasn't looking to sell high.. I was just looking to sell vs. losing an asset for free. heh.

[Yonald]

The problem is, once again, people going in with the wrong mindset. The "it's the best thing offered" excuse is used constantly while teams screw themselves over. Meanwhile it's so easy to just keep the player. So essentially the GM is stuck in the trade mindset instead of doing what's best for his fantasy team.

In order to "sell high" you have to actually sell high and get a massive return. Otherwise you're selling low.

As an aside, buying low is extremely fun but it's even more fun when you buy low on a player who happens to be at the height of his value.

Agree with this 100%.

I'm shopping him around but by no means am I just selling him for the best deal I can get.

Always looking to sell high and buy low. Can't win them all but if you win majority youll end up ahead